Malawi and Zambia  Malawi and Zambia are currently facing severe shortages of maize, the staple food crop in the region, and other grains. In Malawi, the food situation appears to be especially critical. Some reported estimates say that as many as 70% of the 10 million person population are at risk of starvation, especially farm families. Heavy rains and flooding early in 2001 reduced last year's harvest, leaving present stocks very low. Several rounds of heavy rains and flooding since January of this year have damaged maize crops this growing season as well. According to IRIN, production estimates for the maize harvest which is to begin in April have been lowered to 1.5 million metric tonnes, whereas the national demand is 2.2 million tonnes. Because of the current shortage, some farmers have been harvesting unripened maize to either sell or consume, in spite of government restrictions against doing so. The recent flooding has also damaged roads and railways, restricting the import of grains from other countries in the region (primarily South Africa). As a result of the scarcity, market prices have risen dramatically, placing the cost of grain too high for most people to afford. The government of Malawi has declared a national disaster, saying that US$ 26.1 million in aid is needed. Relief agencies such as the World Food Programme have been distributing food, but they report that much more aid is required. (IRIN, CIP, WFP)

Similarly in Zambia, heavy rains contributed to a decreased harvest in 2001, wich has led to the current maize shortages. The government has attempted to import maize but the demand remains very high. According to WFP, an estimated 1.3 million people are in need of urgent food assistance in Zambia. (WFP, IRIN)

Zimbabwe  Zimbabwe is facing the prospect of a maize shortage this season as a result of a combination of factors including: controversial government land redistribution policies, reduced availability of fertilizer, large decreases in the acreage of maize planted by commercial growers, and dry growing conditions in January and February. In a 1 March Emergency Report, WFP indicated that an estimated 500,000 people are at risk of severe hunger in the country. The recent dry weather has also taken a toll on tobacco and other cash crops. (CIP, IRIN)

Ecuador  Flooding in Ecuador, beginning near the end of February, has damaged houses and crops, caused power failures and landslides. 12 deaths have been attributed to the flooding. (OCHA) The flooding was consistent with the development of local El Nino conditions along the west coast of South America. The latest IRI seasonal forecast shows an enhanced probability of above-average rainfall is forecast for April-June.

Java  Episodes of heavy rain produced flooding in Java for a second consecutive month. In excess of 8000 people were displaced and major damage to food crops was recorded.

Peru  Flooding in Peru at the beginning of February affected over 8000 people and damaged houses, schools, and cultivated land. (OCHA, IFRC) The flooding was consistent with the development of local El Nino conditions along the west coast of South America.

Malawi  Since the onset of the rainy season in November 2001, over 175 people have died from the water-borne disease,cholera. Approximately 10,000 people are suffering from cholera throughout the country, particularly around the popular tourist attraction, Lake Malawi. Source - ProMED

Indonesia  From the 287 patients suffering from dengue in Jakarta, 3 fatalities have occurred. Hundreds fall ill from this disease every year, but this is likely to be a serious outbreak due to the recent flooding that has created many breeding grounds for the mosquito vector. The breakdown in sanitation from the flooding is also believed to be responsible for the deaths of over 20 people, mostly infants, from diarrhea. As well, at least 23 people have died during the last two months from malaria, also believed to be associated with the region's flooding. Sources - ProMED, ProMED, Relief Web

Brazil  In the largest outbreak in more than a decade, 430,000 people in Rio de Janeiro are believed to have been infected with dengue. Over 76,000 cases have been registered in the state with almost half in the city of Rio; 31 deaths have resulted so far. Heavy rains and hot weather are believed to have contributed to the outbreak of this mosquito-borne disease. Thousands of military troops have been called in to assist with mosquito fumigation operations to reduce the mosquito numbers and Cuba, recently recovering from its own dengue outbreak, has offered assistance in mosquito reduction. Dengue cases are being reported in serveral other Brazilian states, including Bahia, Ceara, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo. Sources - ProMED, CDC, Disaster Relief, Jornal do Brasil, BBC

eastern US  Continued rainfall deficits along the east coast of the US further exacerbated regional drought. Even if above-average spring and summer rains occur it is not likely that they will be sufficient to aliviate all of the consequences of the long-term drought Some water restrictions were in place throughout the region and many counties were eligible for USDA emergency farm loans. (NDMC)

Morocco and Algeria  Dry conditions in parts of Morocco and Algeria during January and February have led to soil moisture deficits, placing increased stress upon the winter wheat crop. The areas that received the least rainfall during January and February are northern Morocco and western Algeria. According to the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS), the greatest moisture demand for the winter wheat crop will be during March and April. Sufficient and well-distributed rainfall at that time will be critical for the success of the crop, especially given the recent soil moisture deficit.

Sri Lanka  Although February rainfall was near-average, drought conditions still prevailed in Sri Lanka, and the government extended restrictions on commercial energy use. (CIP)

Brazil  As of March 1, Brazil's President Fernando Henrique Cardoso will end electricity rationing, which has put a break on Latin America's largest economy since last June. The shortage was caused by low rainfall during the 2001 rainy season in a country which relies on hydroelectric plants for over 80% of its power. Heavy rains in the last few months have restocked the reservoirs to above minimum levels. But some say lifting the rationing is premature. President Cardoso has said he is confident the conditions exist to end rationing, and officials say it is extremely unlikely that the rationing will be re-imposed during the next two years. But some experts involved in drawing up the rationing plan disagree, saying the government should wait until the end of the rainy season in April to make sure the reservoirs do fill up. Otherwise, they say, more expensive power from thermoelectric plants will be needed, and consumers will have to foot the bill. (BBC)

Although early season rains were enough to fill reservoirs above minimum required levels, February was drier than average throughout the northeast. The seasonal forecast is suggesting higher probability of drier than average conditions through the end of the rainy season in the region of the headwaters of the Sao Francisco River which supplies reserviors in the northeast.