IRI Climate Digest June
2001
Climate Impacts - May
Contributions to this page were made by IRI researchers Dr. A. Amissah-Arthur (Agriculture), Dr. M. Hopp (Health), Dr. B. Lyon (Energy), Dr. A. Seth (Hazards) and Dr. L. Zubair (Water Resources).
Hazards/Threats
Afghanistan
CNN reported that the devastating drought in Afghanistan has left 3.8 million people at risk of famine, and the situation continues to deteriorate. As the rainy season ends, drought is reportedly affecting
every region in Afghanistan, with little hope for additional rain until the next winter. The country is lacking the necessary 2 million tons of food to feed its people - a deficit that has doubled since last year. The U.N. has estimated that drought and
war has forced more than 700,000 people to flee their homes, and
approximately 200,000 have fled to neighbouring Iran and Pakistan. In addition, more than 1,500 individuals arrive at camps in Herat in western Afghanistan each day.
(FAO)
The
rainfall forecast
for the upcoming dry season suggests slightly greater likelihood of drier than average
conditions.
Pakistan
The severe heat wave during May has exacerbated the
ongoing drought conditions in Pakistan. Central and southern regions of the
country are the worst affected where 80 people have died. In
certain areas, mainly in Sindh Province in central Pakistan, the River
Indus has nearly dried up and no significant rains have fallen for
almost one year. According to official sources, the losses inflicted on
the livestock sector are worth more than PKR 15 billion (USD 247
million). The loss of crops in many farming communities is also
reported. Monsoon rains in Pakistan have been unsatisfactory since
1997. THe resulting drought claimed the lives of 143 people and left
1.09 million people affected. Crops were destroyed and 2.48
million livestock were killed.
(OCHA:
WFP)
The
seasonal forecast
suggests a greater likelihood for drier than average conditions through September.
Siberia
Severe flooding followed the region's sever
winter, when temperatures dropped to negative 40
degrees Celsius (negative 40 degrees Fahrenheit) for days.
An already harsh environment coupled with
widespread economic hardship make the region especially
vulnerable to disasters.
Much of Siberia is chronically short of food and adequate medical
care. The floods have exacerbated the situation, wiping out
thousands of hectares of farmland and leaving already struggling
families with little more than the clothes on their backs.
Another one of Siberia's giant, thawing rivers, the River Ob, created
a fresh wave of flooding on Tuesday (May 29), driving some 2,500
people from their homes and inundating Barnaul, a city near the
Mongolian border.
(DRO;
DRO story)
East Africa
Reasonable levels of rainfall have been reported in most parts of
Kenya, but the food security of pastoralists remains precarious.
A total of 2,408,040 people are being targeted for the May
general distribution of food assistance. In Eritrea the dry season
continued in April with no
significant rainfall throughout the country, resulting in a rapid
deterioration of the condition of the livestock herds.
In Ethiopia rains resumed for a short period in parts of Amhara region, which
have eased the fear that the dry spell in early April would affect
Belg crops.
( WFP;
DRO story)
India
The AP reported that the states of Gujarat and parts of Rajasthan have been declared drought areas following
two years of light monsoon rains. Officials have reported that the drought has delayed recovery from an
earthquake that struck in late January. In the northwestern desert state of Rajasthan - where people are suffering
from the third straight year of severe drought - many people are walking for miles each day to get water.
Thirty-one of the 32 districts in Rajasthan are reportedly facing an acute shortage of water, and more than 30,000
villages have about a 50% deficit in crop yield, jeopardizing the lives of 32 million individuals. The lives of
approximately 40 million cattle are also in danger. (CIP)
The onset of the summer monsoon is climatologically in June
with monsoon rainfall usually reaching the drought-affected areas by early to mid-July. The
seasonal forecast
suggests a slightly higher probability that drier than
average conditions will prevail through September in the region.
Florida, U.S.A.
Since the beginning of
January, 2,702 fires have reportedly scorched 80,710 hectares of wetlands and pine forests in Florida. Meanwhile, another drought-related disaster drew public
attention. The South Florida
Water Management District reported that the water level of
Lake Okeechobee, a critical reservoir for residents in south
and east Florida, has dropped to an all-time low of 9 feet
and is still falling. The previous record-low of 9.79 feet, set in
1981, was broken in late April.
( DRO)
Health
Bangladesh Recent flooding from pre-monsoon rains have resulted
in several cases of dengue
being detected.
(ProMED)
Ecuador and Peru. A dengue epidemic has been declared
along the Peru and Ecuador borders. Earlier rains are believed to
have contributed to this dengue outbreak, as well as a malaria
outbreak in Ecuador.
(ProMED)
Thailand. There has been a 25 percent increase in the number
of dengue fever cases reported so far this year (20,400 cases) compared
to last year (16,267 cases). Heavy rains, warmer temperatures and
an influx of illegal immigrants have all contributed to this upsurge.
(ProMED)
India. A malaria epidemic sweeping the northeastern Indian
state of Assam has resulted in 50 deaths and 4500 cases. Lack of
medical doctors and health workers in this remote region, as well as the
early arrival of the rains have contributed to this outbreak.
(ProMED)
Water Resources/Energy
Brazil
A two year drought combined with increased energy demand and a lack of investment in the energy sector has
led the government to institute power rationing effective 1 June 2001. Hydro-power constitutes over 85% of Brazil's
electrical energy supply. Following years of debate, the government of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso is
scrambling to build 55 thermoelectric power stations by 2003, boosting the energy grid by over 21,000 megawatts,
about a third of the country's current generating capacity. Other plans include raising output from existing plants
such as Itaipu, a massive 12,600-megawatt hydroelectric dam on the border with Paraguay. National energy
agency Aneel plans to auction licenses in June to build eight new hydroelectric plants worth $1.6 billion, but their
construction will take seven years. Meanwhile, the government hopes that nationwide rationing will cut
consumption by as much as 35 percent over the next six months. Climatologically, the drought-affected region is
at the start of its dry season, with the onset of rains not expected until October or November. (AP, CNN, PMA)
Iran
The worst power outages since the 1980-1988 war with Iraq hit Iran in May.
For many months there have been warnings that the electrical sector is
suffering from serious funding shortfalls, and the continuing drought
only makes the situation more dire.
Relief Web
Agriculture
North China and Korea
A drought has been developing in north China's Shanxi Province, posing a serious threat to the wheat industry, according to
the local flood control and drought relief office. Statistics show that the province's rainfall between March and May
ranged between only 10 to 45 millimeters, 50 percent less than the normal level. An official survey indicates that as
many as 72 counties have fallen victim to the drought, with 45 of them suffering enormous losses. The drought has
caused great harm to the growing of wheat in the province, with more than about 733,000 hectares of wheat
land unable to be sown. Moreover, there is 160,000 ha of land on which the sown wheat seeds were unable to
sprout due to a lack of water, sources said. The drought has also caused the groundwater level in the
province to fall, putting three million people and 400,000 livestock in short supply of drinking water, and rendering
20,000 wells unable to produce enough water for irrigation. A reduction in the wheat yield is possible.
The Korean penninsula is suffering severe drought, with the army and navy assisting
farmers to obtain emergency water supplies for parched rice paddies. No harvest is
expected from hundreds of thousands of drought stricken acres. (CNN)
The region is beginning its summer rainy season and the
seasonal forecast
does not suggest greater than average likelihood of either wet or dry conditions.
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