Contributions to this page were made by IRI researchers Dr. A. Amissah-Arthur (Agriculture), Dr. M. Hopp (Health), Dr. B. Lyon (Energy), Dr. A. Seth (Hazards) and Dr. L. Zubair (Water Resources).

Hazards/Threats

Afghanistan CNN reported that the devastating drought in Afghanistan has left 3.8 million people at risk of famine, and the situation continues to deteriorate. As the rainy season ends, drought is reportedly affecting every region in Afghanistan, with little hope for additional rain until the next winter. The country is lacking the necessary 2 million tons of food to feed its people - a deficit that has doubled since last year. The U.N. has estimated that drought and war has forced more than 700,000 people to flee their homes, and approximately 200,000 have fled to neighbouring Iran and Pakistan. In addition, more than 1,500 individuals arrive at camps in Herat in western Afghanistan each day. (FAO)

The rainfall forecast for the upcoming dry season suggests slightly greater likelihood of drier than average conditions.

Pakistan The severe heat wave during May has exacerbated the ongoing drought conditions in Pakistan. Central and southern regions of the country are the worst affected where 80 people have died. In certain areas, mainly in Sindh Province in central Pakistan, the River Indus has nearly dried up and no significant rains have fallen for almost one year. According to official sources, the losses inflicted on the livestock sector are worth more than PKR 15 billion (USD 247 million). The loss of crops in many farming communities is also reported. Monsoon rains in Pakistan have been unsatisfactory since 1997. THe resulting drought claimed the lives of 143 people and left 1.09 million people affected. Crops were destroyed and 2.48 million livestock were killed. (OCHA: WFP)

The seasonal forecast suggests a greater likelihood for drier than average conditions through September.

Siberia Severe flooding followed the region's sever winter, when temperatures dropped to negative 40 degrees Celsius (negative 40 degrees Fahrenheit) for days. An already harsh environment coupled with widespread economic hardship make the region especially vulnerable to disasters. Much of Siberia is chronically short of food and adequate medical care. The floods have exacerbated the situation, wiping out thousands of hectares of farmland and leaving already struggling families with little more than the clothes on their backs. Another one of Siberia's giant, thawing rivers, the River Ob, created a fresh wave of flooding on Tuesday (May 29), driving some 2,500 people from their homes and inundating Barnaul, a city near the Mongolian border. (DRO; DRO story)

East Africa Reasonable levels of rainfall have been reported in most parts of Kenya, but the food security of pastoralists remains precarious. A total of 2,408,040 people are being targeted for the May general distribution of food assistance. In Eritrea the dry season continued in April with no significant rainfall throughout the country, resulting in a rapid deterioration of the condition of the livestock herds. In Ethiopia rains resumed for a short period in parts of Amhara region, which have eased the fear that the dry spell in early April would affect Belg crops. ( WFP; DRO story)

India The AP reported that the states of Gujarat and parts of Rajasthan have been declared drought areas following two years of light monsoon rains. Officials have reported that the drought has delayed recovery from an earthquake that struck in late January. In the northwestern desert state of Rajasthan - where people are suffering from the third straight year of severe drought - many people are walking for miles each day to get water. Thirty-one of the 32 districts in Rajasthan are reportedly facing an acute shortage of water, and more than 30,000 villages have about a 50% deficit in crop yield, jeopardizing the lives of 32 million individuals. The lives of approximately 40 million cattle are also in danger. (CIP)

The onset of the summer monsoon is climatologically in June with monsoon rainfall usually reaching the drought-affected areas by early to mid-July. The seasonal forecast suggests a slightly higher probability that drier than average conditions will prevail through September in the region.

Florida, U.S.A. Since the beginning of January, 2,702 fires have reportedly scorched 80,710 hectares of wetlands and pine forests in Florida. Meanwhile, another drought-related disaster drew public attention. The South Florida Water Management District reported that the water level of Lake Okeechobee, a critical reservoir for residents in south and east Florida, has dropped to an all-time low of 9 feet and is still falling. The previous record-low of 9.79 feet, set in 1981, was broken in late April. ( DRO)

Health

Bangladesh Recent flooding from pre-monsoon rains have resulted in several cases of dengue being detected. (ProMED)

Ecuador and Peru.   A dengue epidemic has been declared along the Peru and Ecuador borders.  Earlier rains are believed to have contributed to this dengue outbreak, as well as a malaria outbreak in Ecuador. (ProMED)

Thailand.  There has been a 25 percent increase in the number of dengue fever cases reported so far this year (20,400 cases) compared to last year (16,267 cases).  Heavy rains, warmer temperatures and an influx of illegal immigrants have all contributed to this upsurge.  (ProMED)

India.  A malaria epidemic sweeping the northeastern Indian state of Assam has resulted in 50 deaths and 4500 cases.  Lack of medical doctors and health workers in this remote region, as well as the early arrival of the rains have contributed to this outbreak. (ProMED)

Water Resources/Energy

Brazil A two year drought combined with increased energy demand and a lack of investment in the energy sector has led the government to institute power rationing effective 1 June 2001. Hydro-power constitutes over 85% of Brazil's electrical energy supply. Following years of debate, the government of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso is scrambling to build 55 thermoelectric power stations by 2003, boosting the energy grid by over 21,000 megawatts, about a third of the country's current generating capacity. Other plans include raising output from existing plants such as Itaipu, a massive 12,600-megawatt hydroelectric dam on the border with Paraguay. National energy agency Aneel plans to auction licenses in June to build eight new hydroelectric plants worth $1.6 billion, but their construction will take seven years. Meanwhile, the government hopes that nationwide rationing will cut consumption by as much as 35 percent over the next six months. Climatologically, the drought-affected region is at the start of its dry season, with the onset of rains not expected until October or November. (AP, CNN, PMA)

Iran The worst power outages since the 1980-1988 war with Iraq hit Iran in May. For many months there have been warnings that the electrical sector is suffering from serious funding shortfalls, and the continuing drought only makes the situation more dire. Relief Web

Agriculture

North China and Korea A drought has been developing in north China's Shanxi Province, posing a serious threat to the wheat industry, according to the local flood control and drought relief office. Statistics show that the province's rainfall between March and May ranged between only 10 to 45 millimeters, 50 percent less than the normal level. An official survey indicates that as many as 72 counties have fallen victim to the drought, with 45 of them suffering enormous losses. The drought has caused great harm to the growing of wheat in the province, with more than about 733,000 hectares of wheat land unable to be sown. Moreover, there is 160,000 ha of land on which the sown wheat seeds were unable to sprout due to a lack of water, sources said. The drought has also caused the groundwater level in the province to fall, putting three million people and 400,000 livestock in short supply of drinking water, and rendering 20,000 wells unable to produce enough water for irrigation. A reduction in the wheat yield is possible. The Korean penninsula is suffering severe drought, with the army and navy assisting farmers to obtain emergency water supplies for parched rice paddies. No harvest is expected from hundreds of thousands of drought stricken acres. (CNN)

The region is beginning its summer rainy season and the seasonal forecast does not suggest greater than average likelihood of either wet or dry conditions.