Hazards/Threats

Africa - Nigeria  The late arrival of rainfall in northern Nigeria this year is being blamed for the unusually warm temperatures that have led to more than 60 heat-related deaths in the city of Maiduguri in the northeastern state of Borno in the early days of June. Media reports indicated that the first rains in the city did not occur until June 10th. (IRIN, BBC)

The IRI forecast for the rainy season is suggesting greater likelihood of normal to drier than average conditions

Africa - Southern Africa  The World Food Program made an appeal for US $507 million to be used to fund hunger relief efforts in six countries in Southern Africa, including Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, through March 2003. The funds will be used to buy nearly one million metric tonnes of food to feed about 10.2 million people until the next harvest, covering approximately 67% of the anticipated food aid cereal needs in the region. The food aid will be targeted for the most vulnerable households. The WFP statement made the point that this food crisis is different from the primarily drought-driven crisis in 1991-92 in that the current situation has been complicated by a variety of factors which vary from country to country, including drought and flood damage to crops, foreign exchange shortages, government mismanagement, the impacts of HIV/AIDS, and a deteriorating economic situation in the region. (IRIN, ReliefWeb)

Asia - China  The rainy season in China began with heavy rainfall in early and mid-June and led to severe flooding and landslides in central and northwestern China, affecting the following provinces: Shaanxi, Sichuan, Gansu, Hubei, Guizhou, Xinjiang, and Chongqing municipality. According to the Chinese government, as of June 24th, 37.85 million people had been affected, 453 were killed, 448,416 housing units collapsed and 1,167,000 were damaged. 1.47 million hectares of crops were damaged, 0.35 million hectares of crops were lost, and the economic cost was in excess of 2 billion U.S. dollars. Extensive damage was also done to bridges, roads, rail lines, and hydropower stations, and telecommunications. (BBC, ReliefWeb, BBC, ReliefWeb)

Asia - India  Heavy monsoon rains in the western states of Maharashtra and Gujarat are associated with the deaths of at least 120 people and damage to parts of the rail network according to a 29 June AFP report. Monsoon flooding also displaced several hundred thousand people in the northeastern state of Assam and the eastern state of Bihar in late June and early July. Nearly 100,000 people in bordering Bangladesh were also forced from their homes by flood waters. Floods are a regular feature across eastern India during the monsoon season that begins in June and lasts through September. (AFP, AFP, AFP, Reuters)

The IRI forecast suggests a slightly greater likelihood for drier than average conditions through the end of the rainy season.

North America - Western United States  The US National Interagency Fire Center reported that by the first of July, nearly 3 million acres had burned this year across the United States, nearly 3 times the 10-year average of 1.1 million acres. Conditions favorable for extreme fire activity are expected to continue during the next two months. Conditions may ease to some extent in the US Southwest with the coming of monsoon rains -- although lightning will also continue to be a danger. About 80 percent of large wildland fires occur in July and August, so the fire season is expected to be a long one. As of the beginning of July, there were "29 large fires burning almost 1 million acres in nine states, nearly all in the West, but firefighters were beginning to contain the very large fires that had been burning throughout June in Arizona and Colorado. (CNN)

South America - Colombia  Heavy rainfall in early June across much of Colombia led to as many as 15 deaths and affected approximately 73,000 people, according to the Colombian Red Cross, and the Direccion General para la Prevencion y Atencion de Desastres (DGPAD). (OCHA)

Africa - Mozambique  Over 3000 cases of cholera have been reported in Mozambique's northern province of Cabo Delgado, including 62 deaths. Poor water quality due to preceeding drought conditions have contributed to this outbreak. Source: ProMED

Africa - Kenya  A malaria epidemic in the highlands of Kenya has claimed the lives of 300 and infected over 158,000 people. Authorities believe recent flooding and unusually warm weather are to blame for this outbreak. Sources: ProMED, Disaster Relief, UNWire, IFRC, BBC, BBC

Asia - Sri Lanka  Heavy rains following drought conditions are believed to have contributed to a dengue outbreak with over 2000 cases and 15 deaths reported. An additional 3400 dengue cases are suspected. Source: ProMED

Asia - India  Heavy rains and flooding in India have contributed to over 400,000 cases of malaria, including 73 deaths. In addition, 34 deaths due to diarrhea have been reported. Sources: Disaster Relief, ProMED,

Central America - Central America  A state of emergency has been declared due to the recent dengue outbreaks in the Central American countries of El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. Honduras has seen 6,662 cases of classic dengue this year with a dozen deaths. In El Salvador, 1386 cases have been confirmed, including the deaths of 8 children. In Nicaragua, the Health Ministry has confirmed 494 cases of classic dengue and 65 cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever this year. Previous heavy rainfall in the region is believed to have contributed to the current outbreak. Sources: ProMED, CDC, WHO, IFRC

Africa - Southern Africa  Estimated grain production for 2001/02 has been revised for southern Africa due to new information about planted area and the effects of this season’s unfavorable weather. Total corn production for the region (which includes South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, Swaziland, Lesotho and Botswana) is estimated at 12.8 million tons, slightly higher than last year's poor crop but not enough to meet the local demand. The grain shortfall, combined with various political, economic and social problems in the region, has resulted in a regional food security crisis which is now being addressed by the international community. The main targets for assistance are those most at risk of hunger, including refugees, displaced farm workers, urban residents, women and children, and HIV/AID victims. (FAS)

Central America - Jamaica  The traditionally rainy month of May included a deluge approaching 8 inches over some areas of Jamaica. Seven days of torrential downpour and strong winds led to flash floods, and mudslides. Preliminary estimates placed damage to agriculture at over U.S. $10 million, excluding the banana and sugar industries. The center-south parishes of Jamaica, areas of significant human population and agricultural activity, bore the brunt of the storm. Most heavily affected were south coastal parishes Saint Catherine, Clarendon, Manchester, and Saint Elizabeth. East coast parishes Portland and St. Thomas, still recovering from the effects of the November 2001 flood, also had damage. Public health officials are worried that disease will become epidemic in as many as 11 of the island’s 14 parishes, where medical facilities and power generators have been destroyed. (FAS)

Middle East - Iran  In general, the 2001/02 crop season was on a road to recovery from three consecutive years (1999-2001) of devastating drought, with seasonal rainfall totals near average in most regions from October through April. A final good month of rainfall in May would have greatly helped the final stage of the wheat crop, especially in the rainfed northwest, but the rainy season ended one month early with all growing regions receiving very little rainfall from mid-May to mid-June. The rainfed northwestern region received rainfall totals ranging less than 50 to 75 percent of average. Despite seasonal rainfall totals being below average, the precipitation totals for 2001/02 growing season did surpass those from each of the previous three years of drought. Iran’s 2002/03 wheat production is tentatively forecasted at 9.5 million metric tons, slightly above the five-year average of 9.1 million and much above last year’s poor harvest of 7.5 million. Both rainfall and vegetation analyses indicate better yields than the past three drought years. (FAS)

North America - Mexico  Mexican grains need improved soil moisture in July to prevent further crop stress. USDA forecasts Mexico's 2002/03 corn production at 19 million tons, down 600,000, or 3 percent from last year, sorghum production at 6.85 million tons, up 350,000, or 5 percent from last year and rice production at 185,000 tons, down 30,000, or 14 percent from last year. Mexico entered the 2002 Hurricane Season (June to November) hopeful as in past years that several tropical storms will come ashore and deposit ample rainfall while doing minimal harm to people and property. Extended periods of dryness have persisted across the northern tier of Mexican states neighboring the United States and a few areas farther south. A busy hurricane season and/or an unusually rainy monsoon season would boost Mexican grain prospects. (FAS)