Hazards/Threats

Africa - Rwanda,Tanzania  Drought conditions continue to affect Tanzania after a disappointing short rainy season in the bimodal regions in the north and northeast. Climatologically, these areas have short rains, or vuli rains, from October-December, with planting for the corresponding minor cropping season in November. These poor rains extend the drought that has been affecting the country since early 2003. (CID Reports May 2003, Jun 2003, Sep 2003) Dar es Salaam, the nation's capital city, is experiencing water shortages due to below-normal rainfall, though the situation is exacerbated by delapidated infrastructure in the area. The health ministry has reported an increase in cholera due to the lack of water. The drought has impacted food security as well, which is currently being addressed by local authorities and the WFP by a new emergency relief effort. Food shortages have begun to affect school attendance in drought-affected areas as well. (IRIN, WFP, USDA/FAS, WFP)

Poor rains during October and November have impacted harvests in eastern Rwanda as well. Poor harvests have been confirmed in Bugesera in Kigali-Rural province, though they look to be better than expected in Umatra province. (WFP, WFP)

Asia - Kyrgyzstan  The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has provided an emergency loan of US$ 5 million to the Republic of Krygyzstan to fund several infrastructure repair projects after the heavy precipitation (Mar-May 2003 WASP index) and numerous landslides which affected areas of southern Kyrgyzstan in the spring and summer of 2003. The provinces of Jalal-Abad and Osh suffered the most damage. Forty-three people were killed, 1,088 families lost their homes, 6,000 hectares of agricultural land was damaged, and over 300,000 people were affected. The total estimated damage was about US$ 13.5 million. According to local civil defense officials, much of the damage might have been avoided if unauthorized construction in vulnerable areas had been prevented. The government of Kyrgyzstan will also supply US$ 1.3 million to fund infrastructure projects. (ADB, IRIN, IRIN)

Asia - Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines  Abundant rainfall across the Maritime Continent brought flooding and landslides to Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Weeks of heavy rains in Sumatra and part of Sulawesi, in Indonesia, caused flooding that left approximately 25,000 people homeless and displaced another 350,000 people. Over 75,000 hectares of plantation and agricultural land were submerged. Flooding along the Batanghari River caused the worst flooding in the province of Jambi since 1955. The province of Riau in Sumatra was also greatly affected. (DFO, DPA, IFRC, IFRC, OCHA)

The Malaysian state of Sabah on the island of Borneo felt the impacts of flooding when the Sungai Kinabatangan River burst its banks. Roads, crops, and bridges were destroyed in Kota Marudu and 2000 people we displaced. (DFO)

Flooding and landslides killed 209 people in the Philippines. Southern Leyte province and the provinces of Agusan Del Norte, Agusan Del Sur, Surigao Del Norte on the island of Mindanao. Over 550 mm (21.6 in) of precipitation fell in a single day in northeastern Mindanao, flooding the Agusan River. The flooding on Mindanao and landslides in Southern Leyte displaced 97,500 people, and affected over 200,000 while causing an estimated 3 million USD in damage. The same weather systems that caused the heavy rains contributed to the sinking of a ferry in the Sulu Sea. Seventy people were lost with the ferry. (DFO, CNN, AFP, AFP, Government of the Philippines, OCHA)

Central America - Honduras  Three weeks of rainfall contributed to higher than normal precipitation totals and flooding in parts of northern Honduras along the Caribbean coast. The Associated Press reported seven deaths and damage to bridges that allow access to the province of Yoro. Hundreds of people were evacuated from their homes, and a damage estimate of US$20 million was reported. Earlier in the month, WFP reported that heavy rains and flooding had caused damage in the Atlantida department in northern Honduras, leading to four deaths and damage to houses and infrastructure. (AP, WFP)

The February-April period typically accounts for a small proportion of the annual rainfall in Honduras. The latest IRI precipitation forecast for the February-April 2004 season suggests a slightly enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the period.

North America - United States  Heavy rains brought flooding and mudslides to southern California in late December. San Bernardino County was the hardest hit when up to 4 inches of rain triggered a landslide that swept through a Greek Orthodox youth camp on Christmas Day. Thirteen people were killed, 3 bridges were destroyed and 1 person remains missing. Two more lives were lost in another mudslide in southern California. The state's most severe wildfires in history, brought on by a long-term drought, burned nearly 1 million acres in the same area in October and November (CID Report Nov 2003). The fires cleared the area of vegetation that typically helps shore up steep terrain, making the area more prone to mudslides. County authorities had taken action to increase the amount of vegetation since the fires. (CNN, CNN, CNN, CNN, DFO)

Asia - Bangladesh,Burma,India  A cold wave in Bangladesh, Burma, and northern India killed 574 people in the last week of December and first week of January. Most victims were homeless and died due to exposure, though deaths due to pneumonia, bronchitis, and asthma also increased during the cold wave. The northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for over two-thirds of the death toll, has been hit the hardest. The government distributed blankets and offered night shelters as temperatures dipped to 2-6°C (35-43°F). Thick fog, which accompanied the cold, caused problems for railways in Uttar Pradesh as well, as some trains were delayed by up to 20 hours. (Reuters, Hindu, WFP)

Africa - Africa: Southern  Several reports indicate that late-starting and below-normal rainfall (precipitation persistence map) has led to late planting for the November-March rainy season in Lesotho, Swaziland, and parts of Angola, South Africa, and Mozambique (map). Dry conditions have been particularly persistent in Lesotho and the surrounding region, where very little precipitation fell during the winter of 2003 or during the previous summer rainy season, hurting the winter grain crop (IRIN). According to WFP, late-planted maize at higher elevations in Lesotho may be vulnerable to late season frost damage, and drought-stressed livestock are in poor condition. As of mid-December, growers in the "maize triangle" of South Africa were awaiting good rainfall before planting corn. Due to low reservoir levels in the region, smaller areas of irrigated crops are likely to be planted (NASA, USDA). According to the Swaziland Water Services Corporation, it was possible that water rationing would begin soon in some urban areas. According to the Swaziland Ministry of Natural Resources, major rivers are flowing at about 40 to 70 percent of normal, and water levels are low in many reservoirs (IRIN). WFP also expected to be feeding about 245,000 people in Swaziland by January 2004 (IRIN). In Mozambique, precipitation was well below normal in Maputo province in the southern tip of the country, and vegetation was experiencing severe water stress (FEWS Net). Dry conditions were also developing in the northwestern province of Tete. WFP has estimated that about 659,000 people will require food aid until the next harvest (WFP).

The latest IRI precipitation forecast for the February-March-April 2004 season indicates a slightly increased probability of below-normal precipitation in northern Botswana, western Zimbabwe, and southern Zambia, and in southern Mozambique, eastern South Africa, and Swaziland. A slightly enhanced probability of above-normal precipitation is forecast for much of Angola during the same period.

Middle East - Iran,Iraq,Syria,Turkey  Winter grain crops in the Middle East have benefitted from good early-season precipitation, according to the USDA. After good precipitation and winter grain harvests during the last two years, near- to above-normal precipitation has fallen in most winter grain-growing areas in the Middle East (USDA winter wheat map). Azarbayejan and Arabil in northwestern Iran, and areas in northern Iraq have received below-normal precipitation, however (Sep-Nov 2003 WASP index). USDA also reports that warmer than normal temperatures have aided early crop growth in some areas. (USDA, USDA)

North America - United States  Farmers in western Kansas, in the central United States, are struggling to come back from a drought that has been affecting the region since 2000. The winter wheat crop has been hit particularly hard this year. Much of the crop either didn't germinate or died after germination due to lack of moisture. The crop that remains has an abnormally shallow root structure that will make it vulnerable to winter kill. What snow fell in November and December yielded very little moisture. This is in contrast to the wet snow that fell in eastern Kansas, which received over ten times as much liquid-equivalent precipitation. (CNN)