Hazards/Threats

Asia - India,Sri Lanka  Heavy rainfall brought flooding to southeastern India and northeastern and western Sri Lanka during November, which climatologically coincides with the peak of the rainy season in most of the affected region (Nov 2005 1-Month WASP Map). In India, the states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh were worst affected by what were called the "heaviest rains in 50 years". The flooding affected 2 million people and killed another 162 people in Tamil Nadu. Twenty-one deaths were reported in Andhra Pradesh (IFRC, IFRC, NASA).

Approximately 29,000 families in 10 districts were affected by flooding in Sri Lanka. Six deaths were reported, as was damage to 2000 homes. Some of the northern areas are still recovering from the Dec 26, 2004 tsunami, and the heavy rains disrupted food distributions by the WFP (IFRC, ReliefWeb Map, AFP, WFP).

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast suggests a slightly to moderately enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation over southern India and Sri Lanka, respectively, during the January-March 2006 season.

Caribbean,Central America - Cuba,Honduras  After the middle of November, three additional named tropical cyclones formed in the Atlantic basin, further extending what was already a record Atlantic hurricane season (Nov 2005 CID). Tropical storm Gamma caused at least 34 deaths, forced approximately 30,000 people from their homes, and affected approximately 90,000 people in Honduras (OCHA, AFP). The storm also heavily damaged over 2,100 hectares of banana farms, some portion of which are expected to be out of production for at least a year (Reuters).

According to new figures from the Cuban government, Hurricane Wilma, which affected the country in October, caused about USD 704 million in losses. The storm damaged some 7,500 houses, destroying 446. Crops and agricultural activities, such as tobacco production, reportedly sustained considerable losses (AFP, WFP).

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast indicates a slightly to moderately enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for Cuba during the January-March 2006 season.

South America - Colombia  Approximately 370,000 people have been affected and more than 95 killed in northern Colombia by heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides during the recent rainy season, which climatologically occurs during September-November. Sucre, Córdoba, César, Santander, Norte de Santander, Antioquia, Guajira and Magdalena were among the worst-hit provinces. At least 10,000 hectares of farmland were lost, some of which was due to flooding along the Magdalena and Cauca Rivers. More than 22,000 homes were damaged and another 1000 were completely destroyed by the floods and slides (WFP, IFRC, ReliefWeb Map).

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast indicates a slightly enhanced probability of above normal precipitation over most of Colombia during January-March 2006.

Africa - Niger  The food crisis in West Africa associated with the 2004 drought and locust infestation, which at its peak affected over 3.5 million people in Niger, continues in spite of better harvests this year. The increased levels of debt and loss of assets sustained by many households in association with the 2004 drought and food shortages will make it difficult for many to afford food in the months ahead. Although good rains this year in Niger (May-Oct 2005 WASP Index Map) resulted in agricultural production above the latest five-year average, early estimates (FAO) indicate that about 1.22 million people in Niger are expected to face food shortages within the next three months, and as many as 3.2 million may be at risk within the next five months, according to WFP (IRIN, IRIN, IRIN).

Asia - Pakistan  Efforts are ongoing to provide adequate shelter from winter weather to over 3 million people in Pakistan made homeless by the destructive earthquake of October 8th. Rain, snow, and dangerously cold temperatures arrived in earthquake affected areas of northern Pakistan in early November (AFP). Heavy snow and winter weather have begun to block roads and disrupt relief operations, especially in areas at higher elevations. According to the chief UN humanitarian coordinator in Pakistan, between 350,000 and 400,000 people can now be reached only by helicopter (Reuters). In early December the UN released an assessment of the shelter needs of those living below 5,000 feet of elevation in the North West Frontier Province and Pakistan-Administered Kashmir. Of the 3000 households included in the assessment, 74 percent were living in shelter deemed inadequate for winter weather (IOM). A large proportion of tents donated to the relief effort have been too flimsy to withstand the winter weather, and efforts are underway to reinforce many shelters. As of late November about 50 percent of the appeal for USD 550 million needed for relief operations had been funded (OCHA, Reuters). Several deaths and about 100 hospitalizations for hypothermia, pneumonia, and other respiratory illnesses related to the cold weather have been reported (AFP).

Africa - Madagascar  Flooding in early 2005 has contributed to a decline in the supply of rice and other crops in Madagascar, which has reportedly been a factor in rising rates of malnutrition in the southeastern part of the country. Following local reports of food shortages in Vangaindraino district in the South Eastern Region of Madagascar (ReliefWeb Map), national authorities and partners from the UN and relief agencies conducted a food security assessment in the area in early November. The assessment suggested that as many as 14,000 children in the district may be acutely malnourished, and as many as 3,700 of these may be severely malnourished (OCHA). Food shortages are a recurring problem in this part of Madagascar. Reports have blamed the current food shortages on a mixture of factors, including floods that damaged the staple rice crop in the early months of 2005 (IRIN, DFO Map), infections and/or infestations of sweet potato crops, and recent dry conditions (Sep-Nov 2005 WASP Index) which may be affecting both rice and sweet potatoes (IRIN, Reuters, IRIN). Many people in the region also depend on income from cash crops of cloves and vanilla. Following a steep rise in international vanilla prices from about USD 30 per kilogram in 2000 to more than USD 200 per kilogram in 2003, due in part to damage to the crop caused by cyclones and detrimental weather, a rebound in global supply caused prices to fall steeply in 2004 to as low as USD 25 per kilogram, affecting incomes in Madagascar (Baltimore Sun via Seattle Times).

Africa - Kenya  Eastern portions of Kenya are continuing to feel the effects of poor rains in 2004 and 2005 (Sep 2005 CID Report). Rates of child malnutrition have increased, and livestock prices have decreased abnormally in the northeastern pastoral districts. Rainfall was below normal again in November, extending the poor start to the short rains across much of Kenya (Oct, Nov 2005 Precipitation Percentile Maps). This raises concern in the humanitarian community; a recent report from FEWS NET warned that a humanitarian emergency would be likely in the eastern districts if the rains were poor through November and that a failure of the 2005 short rains would be "catastrophic". This is largely due to the fact that the October-December season comprises approximately 70 percent of annual household production in many of the drought-affected areas. In stark contrast, the western portion of the country continues to improve from the poor rains of the last year, and overall crop production is expected to be above average.

Africa - Ethiopia,Somalia  While above-normal precipitation during the past year has greatly improved conditions for pastoralists in northern Somalia, in southern Somalia and the Somali region of Ethiopia water supplies, pasture conditions, and food security are beginning to deteriorate due to below-normal rainfall thus far during the October-December 2005 short rains (Oct 2005 Precipitation Percentile Map). A poor performance of the October-December rainy season would mean that water supplies and pasture would not likely be sustained until the expected arrival of the March-May long rains. Food security in the Juba and Gedo regions of southern Somalia is rapidly declining, and harvest prospects following the short rains are poor. According to FEWS Net, over 500,000 people in southern Somalia will need humanitarian assistance until at least the next expected harvest in August 2006 (FEWS Net, IRIN, FEWS Net, IRIN).

Africa - Zimbabwe  Below-normal rainfall during the 2004-05 season has been named as one of the factors causing poor food security in portions of Zimbabwe (Dec 2004-Feb 2005 Precipitation Anomaly Map). Other factors include the impact of HIV/AIDS and the economic crisis that came after the government's land reform program. Their combined impact included a 2005 maize harvest that covered only one-third of the national requirement of 1.8 million metric tons. According to a recently released Zimbabwe Rural Food Security and Vulnerability Assessment, approximately 36 percent of the rural population will not be able to meet household food needs until the next harvest in April-May 2006. The United Nations issued an appeal for USD 276 million in aid to be distributed by the WFP through June 2006 (IRIN, IRIN).

Poor pasture and water resources have also affected wildlife in the Hwange National Park. Only 7 of the park's 66 drinking points have water, and officials have been unable to pump water into other locations due to fuel shortages and broken machinery. These water shortages have been blamed for the deaths of numerous animals, including 43 elephants, 53 buffaloes, three zebras and a giraffe. The overpopulation of elephants has played a role in the loss of pasture as well (IRIN).

The latest IRI seasonal precipitation forecast indicates a slightly enhanced probability of above-normal rainfall in northern Zimbabwe during the upcoming January-March 2006 season.

Europe - Europe: Central  A series of winter storms brought heavy snow, ice and below-normal temperatures to much of central Europe during November. In western Germany, approximately 250,000 people in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia were without electricity after strong winds and several inches of ice brought down power lines. The icy conditions were also blamed for 1500 road accidents in a single weekend, causing an estimated USD 4.1 million in damage. Farther west, snowfall affected transportation in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and the UK. Eight deaths were reported across the region due to the cold temperatures (AFP, AFP).