Hazards/Threats

Africa - Eritrea  The government of Eritrea estimates that 1.4 million people will need food aid in the country until the end of 2003 due to the failure of the rainy season this year (IRIN). In the estimation of the WFP, 400,000 metric tons of cereals will need to be imported to feed the Eritrean population during 2003. (WFP)

Africa - Mozambique  Retail maize prices are expected to rise until the next harvest begins in February and March, resulting in decreased food security in urban areas, according to FEWS NET. Because of the poor agricultural production last year in the drought-afflicted central and southern areas of the country, about 500,000 people will require 70,050 metric tons of food aid until April 2003. Although rains started well in late October and early November in southern Mozambique, they did not hold up through the rest of November. (IRIN)

Africa - Madagascar  A political crisis over the leadership of the country, flooding, and drought in the southern part of the island have contributed to food shortages affecting nearly 400,000 people in Madagascar, according to WFP. This estimate is up from 200,000 last month. WFP has asked for $8.4 million for 18,400 metric tons of food aid. (IRIN)

Africa - Kenya  Failed rains have nearly wiped out harvests in western and northwestern Kenya, causing over 200,000 people to face food shortages. In West Pokot in western Kenya, maize production levels fell 97% after the poorest seasonal rains since 1984. Food shortages are expected to continue until the next harvest season in October 2003. (IRIN)

Africa - Ethiopia  On 12 November, WFP warned that large pledges of food aid are still needed to prevent a catastrophe in Ethiopia. The agency still lacks the $80 million worth of food aid required in the first quarter of 2003, and a similar amount of aid will also be required in direct contributions to the government and NGOs (WFP). Currently, 6 million people are in need of food aid, but that number is expected to rise to 10 to 14 million early in 2003 due to this year's drought, which has destroyed crops and killed large numbers of livestock. Ethiopian Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, made an appeal to the international community for aid, comparing the building crisis to the famine of 1984 in which about one million people died and 7.9 million were affected (IRIN). In an 18 November statement from the ministry of information, the government of Ethiopia reiterated the need for immediate food aid (IRIN). According to initial WFP estimates (25 November), the main harvest in November-December will be 15% lower than normal as a result of drought conditions. (BBC)

Africa - Zimbabwe  WFP Deputy Country Director Gawaher Atif was quoted as saying that "we are very close to famine here". WFP was expecting to feed 3 million people in November but had to target those most in need due to a shortage of available food aid. It is estimated that 6.7 million Zimbabweans will need food aid until the harvest in April/May 2003. As of 28 November, WFP was still facing a shortage of 200,000 metric tons of food and would need to increase its deliveries to about 65,000 metric tons per month (IRIN). The latest wheat harvest is as much as 30% below the expected amount, and according to FEWS, 240,000 metric tons of wheat will need to be imported. About 2.2 million people have received food aid in 36 of Zimbabwe's 57 districts so far.

Africa - Mauritania  In a study of malnutrition among children in Mauritania, World Vision found that the global acute malnutrition rate, defined as the proportion of children under the age of 5 who are below 80% weight/height (percentage of normal ratio of weight and height), was as high as 12.6% in the Assaba and Tagant regions of southern Mauritania, as a result of the severe drought during the summer rainy season. Child malnutrition rates in southern Mauritania were as high as 14.1% in the Aftout district of Assaba. In the Tagant region, the global acute malnutrition rate was 10.9%, but 36 of the 1,824 children in the area had died in the past six months. World Vision nutritionist François Batalingaya compared the global acute malnutrition rates in Mauritania, which range from 10 to 15% to those in Southern Africa, which range from 4 to 9%. Food stocks are set to run out in February and the next harvest is due in October 2003. (World Vision, BBC)

Africa - Burundi  WFP is appealing for 44,000 metric tons of food to feed as many as 1.2 million people until the main harvest in April 2003. Burundi's Early Warning Task Force and WFP feared low agricultural yields in the December and April harvests because of poor rainfall in recent months and a low water table in agricultural swamplands. Food stocks are reportedly low because of a poor harvest during the previous growing season. (IRIN; FEWS)

Slightly increased probabilities of wetter-than-normal conditions are included in the IRI precipitation forecast for the January-March season in Burundi and the surrounding region.

Australia - Australia  As of early November, about 3000 firefighters were fighting more than 100 fires throughout New South Wales, where conditions in some locations are the driest in 100 years. As of 10 November, about 470,000 hectares of land in New South Wales had burned (BBC). There was a sudden outbreak of new fires in the outskirts of Sydney in the first days of December, some of which are believed to be the result of arson. Officials say that this bushfire season is becoming one of Australia's worst ever. (BBC)

North America - United States  According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), as of 15 November, in 2002, 71,160 fires had "burned about 7.1 million acres, nearly double the 10-year average." The states of Colorado, Arizona, and Oregon experienced their largest fires in a century. Early in the fire season, about 45% of the country was experiencing moderate or extreme drought conditions. In terms of acreage burned, 2002 so far ranks as the third or fourth largest fire season since 1960.

Africa - Uganda  Heavy El Nino rains are being blamed for 5 deaths due to cholera in Hoima and another 4 in Kasese. The rains have contributed to a breakdown in hygiene in homes and public places. During the El Nino event in 1997, over 50,000 people were affected by cholera in Uganda with more than 2,000 deaths. (AllAfrica)

Asia - Taiwan  In its worst dengue outbreak since World War II, Taiwan has called in the military to assist with mosquito control efforts. There have been 4464 confirmed cases of dengue fever, including 121 cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever and 13 deaths. A health department spokesman attributed this year's warmer temperatures and abundant rainfall to the outbreak. (ProMED)

North America - Mexico  Following the heavy rains associated with Hurricanes Kenna and Isidoro, Mexico is reporting increased numbers of dengue cases. The rains provide the necessary breeding grounds for the mosquitoes that carry the dengue viruses. Mosquito control measures are being set up along the Pacific coast states of Nayarit, Sinaloa, and Jalisco, as well as the Gulf coast states of Campeche and Yucatan. Efforts are also being made to contain an outbreak in Matamoros along the U.S.-Mexico border. (Health Canada, ABC News)

Asia - China  As an emergency measure, water from the Yellow River is being diverted to the northern coastal city of Tianjin in order to ease the local water shortage brought on by several years of drought. According to a story in the People's Daily, 350 million cubic meters or water will be transferred to Tianjin by February 2003.

Africa - Southern Africa  According to FEWS NET, as of 3 December, there had not been enough rain to plant maize, wheat, sunflower, sorghum, and soya in South Africa. The expected continuation of a moderate El Niño, which is often associated with dry conditions in the region, has compounded concerns over the outcome of the rainy season (IRIN). FEWS NET also reported that rains in October and November (October & November total precipitation anomaly) in much of the Maize Triangle, eastern Botswana, parts of southern and western Zimbabwe, and in Swaziland and Lesotho amounted to as little as 10 to 40% of normal. Below normal rainfall was also observed in southern Malawi and areas of central Mozambique (FEWS), although above-normal amounts fell further south. (SADC)

The IRI seasonal forecast for January-March precipitation indicates a slightly enhanced probability of drier than normal conditions for much of Southern Africa associated with the continuing El Niño event.

Australia - Australia  In early December, the Australian government reported that despite a very large decline in farm output and the estimated five billion dollar (Australian) cost of the drought to farmers, the economy is expected to grow 3.7% (BBC). This is up from the projection of 3% given by Treasurer Peter Costello in a mid-year review of the Australian economy, but still slightly below the 3.75% growth rate predicted in May (BBC). December 2002 USDA estimates of Australian agricultural production indicate that wheat production will reach just 10.5 million tons, down more than 56% from last year; cotton production will be 1.5 million bales, down 53%; and sorghum production is forecast to reach 1.0 million tons, down 44% from last year. The current drought conditions and reduced availability of water for irrigation has reduced summer plantings of cotton, rice, and sorghum (World Agricultural Production, USDA/FAS, December 2002)

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology drought statement released in 3 December, although beneficial rains fell in central and northwestern parts of the country in November, drought conditions generally worsened in the east. Large dust storms have affected cities such as Adelaide and Sydney in recent months and removed great amounts of topsoil from the land, which is lacking most of its normal cover of vegetation because of the record dry conditions (The Age).

The latest IRI precipitation forecast for the January-March 2003 season in Australia indicates an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall associated with El Niño conditions, particularly in northern Queensland.

Middle East - Iran  Early USDA estimates of 2002/03 wheat production in Iran indicate production will reach 11.0 million tons, up 29% from last year, due partly to above- and near-normal rainfall totals in recent months in wheat-growing areas of the country and partly to government-guaranteed prices. (World Agricultural Production, USDA/FAS, December 2002)

South America - Argentina  Heavy rainfall and flooding in November in southern Buenos Aires Province is partly blamed for wheat crop losses for 2002/03. Wheat production is estimated at 13.5 million tons, down 13% from last year. (World Agricultural Production, USDA/FAS)

North America - United States  Biologists completing a survey of the oyster population of the Chesapeake Bay have reported that the 3-year drought in the region has significantly raised the salinity of the bay, allowing for two parasitic diseases, Dermo and MSX, to kill off large numbers of oysters. Maryland state biologists expect this year's oyster harvest to be the smallest since Maryland began keeping records in 1870. (CIP, AP)

Europe - Scandinavia  The drought that Scandinavia has been experiencing since the summer has greatly impacted reservior levels in the region. Finland and Norway's reservoirs have dropped to 10- and 20-year lows, respectively. Norway, who generates nearly 100 percent of its electricity from hydro-power, along with Sweden, are urging their citizens to save energy. Power prices have grown to all-time highs in the region. (CIP, Reuters)