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IRI Climate Digest  August 2001

Climate Impacts - July

Contributions to this page were made by IRI researchers
Dr. M. Barlow, Dr. M. Hopp, Dr. T. Kestin,
Dr. B. Lyon, Dr. A. Seth, Dr. L. Zubair and M. Bell.

Hazards/Threats
 
Ethiopia Very much below average rainfall over the last few months in the Ethiopian Somali region has put serious pressure on the water supplies and grazing pastures of one million people in the region. Similar conditions have also been reported across the border in Somalia. The situation has triggered an unusually early migration of pastoralists into less-affected areas, putting resources under pressure in those areas as well. (IRIN)

The IRI  Net Assessment forecast  for the period of August to October shows a slightly enhanced probability that drier than normal conditions will persist in this region. The next rainy season in this region usually occurs in October and November.

Kenya Continued rainfall deficits over northern and eastern Kenya have delayed the recovery of over 3 million pastoralists from four years of drought. The drought has contributed to migrations of pastoralists and their livestock, as well as to a large number of livestock deaths.  (IRIN).

Below average rainfall conditions have an enhanced likelihood of persisting in some parts of this region, according to the IRI Net Assessment Forecast for August to October.

India Several parts of the country received heavy rainfall during the South West Monsoon, resulting in floods, landslides, loss of human life and cattle, disruption of all communications networks, damages to houses and property and dislocation of normal activities. About eight million people have been affected by the floods in the east Indian state of Orissa, the worst there in 50 years. Other states have also been hit, including Chattisgarh, west of Orissa, and West Bengal. (OCHA)

The IRI Net Assessment Forecast calls for a slightly enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation across central India, from the western coast to Nepal during August-October, and over northwestern India during September-November.

Pakistan Despite Pakistan's receiving the heaviest rainfall in a century, government officials said that it would have little effect on the country's ongoing drought as the heavy rains were local in nature. The rains were localised and downstream of the country's main reservoirs, and not considered a significant relief to the continuing Central Asian drought which has afflicted the country.(IRIN) 232 people were killed after the heaviest rains for 100 years caused flash floods in Punjab and North West Frontier Province where one village was completely washed away. In Islamabad alone, there was 620 mm of rainfall in one day. While there was relatively little damage there, in nearby Rawalpindi, 170 mm of rainfall has caused billions of rupees worth of damage to local businesses and homes. (OCHA )

In the latest IRI Net Assessment Forecast, there is a slightly enhanced likelihood of above-normal rainfall for western Pakistan and most of Afghanistan during the upcoming September-November period.

Iran Flash floods triggered by torrential rains impacted several places in northwestern and northeastern Iran. The cities of Meshkinshahr in Ardabil province and Siahcheshmeh in West Azarbayjaan are the most affected. Heavy flash floods have caused major damages to roads, agricultural lands, and houses. Three consecutive years of drought and degradation of natural vegetation exposed unprotected soil to heavy rain, causing heavy flash floods. (OCHA, IRIN)

Iran receives most of its annual rainfall during the boreal winter and spring.

Afghanistan Three years of drought has left the region more vulnerable, both physically and economically, to the vagaries of weather events; local flooding near the capital in the middle of the month destroyed much needed crops and cattle (AFP). Cholera fears continue due to the drought's impact on the quality of water supplies and to reports of suspected cases (IRIN). The Sep-Oct-Nov Net Assessment Forecast for this region suggests a slight enhancement of the possibility for above-normal precipitation.

China Southern China was hit by two typhoons (Durian and Utor) early in July 2001. Guangdong Province and Guangxi Autonomous Region are the worst affected areas, where the heavy rains associated with the storms caused rivers to quickly rise and flood. (IFRC) Meanwhile, reservoirs in the northern part of Jiangsu Province are suffering from severe drought and some are becoming exhausted. The drought-stricken region in the lower reaches of Huaihe and Sihe rivers has seen little rain since March - 55% less than usual. Lakes such as Hongze, Luoma, Weishan, and Shiling reportedly have reached their lowest water line due to insufficient rain. (CIP) The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have been dominated by hot weather since the end of June, which has aggravated the drought in the region. (COMTEX)

South Korea Heavy rains, which were most severe in the area of the capital, Seoul, followed months of unprecedented drought and triggered floods and landslides. Disaster relief officials said 45 people were reported dead and nine were missing after more than 300 mm (12 inches) of rain fell in two days. (Rueters)

Korea receives much of its rainfall during the boreal summer months, and the outlook through the end of the year shows slightly enhanced probabilities of drier than average conditions.

Taiwan Taiwan has been affected by 3 serious storms in the recent weeks. Various media sources reported that Tropical Storm Trami brought torrential rains to southern Taiwan causing widespread flooding that drowned at least 3 individuals. According to the Central Weather Bureau, Trami reportedly did not make landfall, but inundated much of southern Kaohsiung and Pingtung counties with the most severe rainfall in 40 years. (CIP)

Health

India  With the worst flooding in 50 years, the east Indian state of Orissa has reported 27,000 cases of diarrhea and 3,592 suspected malaria cases.  Venomous snakes have moved to the limited area of higher ground occupied by flood-displaced people, resulting in 142 snake bite cases.  (IFRC )

Pakistan.  Recent floods in Pakistan's central and northern regions have prompted World Health Organization officials to issue warnings of possible cholera outbreaks due to contaminated water, as well as an increase in hepatitis and a potential threat of anthrax.  At a local hospital, at least 3 suspected cholera cases have been reported.  (UN WireProMED )

Water Resources/Energy

Sri Lanka Drought Conditions continue in Sri Lanka. The scheduled power cuts have continued since April due to the shortfalls in rains during the last year in the catchments for the rivers feeding hydroelectricity plants. In addition, the southern region of Sri Lanka is experiencing its worst drought in 50 years, leading to malnutrition and difficulties with feeding livestock. (BBC, Sunday Observer)

The IRI long lead forecast for October-December 2001 indicates a slightly enhanced probability of continued dry conditions into the next rainy season.

Iran The managing director of electricity for the Gilan region [northern Iran] has announced: If electricity saving methods are not implemented, the possibility of 3- to 11-percent power cuts nationwide is foreseeable. As a result of the drought and the fall in water levels in the country's dams in the current year, the amount of electricity produced by power stations is estimated to be 8 percent lower than in years with plentiful water. (PMA)

Israel Ongoing drought in Israel is resulting in dangerously low reservoir levels and salt water contamination of the coastal aquifer (CIP).

Agriculture

Central America  According to several recent reports issued by the UN World Food Programme (WFP), nearly 800,000 people in large sections of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua risk severe food shortages in coming weeks and months as a result of heavy crop losses due to below-normal rainfall, and an estimated 1.4 million people in the region are running short of food.  Most of those who are worst-affected are subsistence farmers who grow crops such as corn, beans, and maize.  WFP reports that some farmers in parts of El Salvador and Nicaragua have already lost up to 100% of their crops. On July 23, the government of Honduras issued a national food emergency in the southern, central, and western sections of the country.  WFP regional director Francisco Roque Castro indicated in an August 1 report that WFP only had enough resources to aid a little more than half of those who would be affected by the food shortage.  According to a UN OCHA Situation Report dated August 3, 2001, at least 16,500 metric tons of food valued at about US$7.5 million will be needed over the next three months.

The entire region of Central America has experienced below normal rainfall since June, with estimated deficits generally ranging between 50 and 150 mm per month in June and July.  The IRI Net Assessment forecast for August-September-October indicates a slightly enhanced probability of below-normal rainfall for southern Mexico, Guatemala, and parts of Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

Iran Based on the official estimates, this year's drought is directly affecting more than 2.6 million hectares of irrigated farms, 4 million hectares of rainfed agriculture, 1.1. million hectares of orchards and more than 75 million animals. Iran imported seven million tons of wheat, becoming the world's biggest importer, last year. This year, this figure may increase further, as farmers are expecting reductions of 35 - 75% in wheat and barley production in the drought affected provinces. (OCHA)
 

Material for this portion of the IRI Climate Information Digest has been extracted from the UN/OCHA Reliefweb (RW), the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Doctors Without Borders (DWB), Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED), USDA/NOAA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF) and the Fishmeal Exporters Organization (FEO). Additional information was obtained from the NOAA/OGP Climate Information Program, Red Cross/CNN/IBM Disaster Relief (DRO), COMTEX, CNN, and the Power Marketing Association PMA

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