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- Majority of research on tropical storm prediction: evolution of storms
over a period of a few days.
- Our interest: Prediction of storm frequency interannual variability: - prediction of
the number of storms in each year : normal, above normal, below normal
- Different ways to predict frequency of tropical storm in a season:
- Statistical methods (Gray et al. 1992).
- Seasonal genesis parameter from an atmospheric model (Ryan et al. 1992).
- Track individual storms produced by an atmospheric model.
S.J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Open House, 10/06/2001