Forecasting Tropical Storms Frequency

• Majority of research on tropical storm prediction: evolution of storms over a period of a few days.

• Our interest: Prediction of storm frequency interannual variability: - prediction of the number of storms in each year : normal, above normal, below normal

• Different ways to predict frequency of tropical storm in a season:
  • Statistical methods (Gray et al. 1992).

  • Seasonal genesis parameter from an atmospheric model (Ryan et al. 1992).

  • Track individual storms produced by an atmospheric model.