Forecasting Tropical Storms Frequency

• Majority of research on tropical storm prediction: evolution of storms over a period of a few days.

• Our interest: Prediciton of storm frequency interannual variability

• Different ways to predict tropical storm interannual variability:
  • Statistical methods (Gray et al. 1992).

  • Seasonal genesis parameter from an AGCM (Ryan et al. 1992).

  • Track individual storms produced by an AGCM.