// Scilab code developed by:
// International Research Institute for Climate and Society
// Columbia University in the City of New York, USA
// Last update: June 26, 2013
// --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Dependancies : (see each function for further details)
//      -- data PositiveCases
// --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Functions :
//      -- For each day of the year, compute the mean of all the positive cases that occured that same day on a PREVIOUS year
//      -- Select the part that is between ti and tf (putting the cases in the right order of necessary)
// --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


//This function calculate the daily climatology taking only the data before time t, and give a prediction for period [ti,tf]
function[Pred]=Climatology(ti,tf)

    for i=1:365
        Clima(i)=sum(Cases(i:365:(i+365*floor((ti-i)/365)),2))/(floor((ti-i)/365)+1);
    end

    ann=floor((tf-ti)/365)
    beg=modulo(ti,365); if beg==0 then beg=365; end
    clo=modulo(tf,365); if clo==0 then clo=365; end
    if beg<clo then
        if ann==0 then
            Pred=Clima(beg:clo);
        else
            Pred=Clima(beg:365);
            for j=2:ann
                Pred=[Pred;Clima];
            end
            Pred=[Pred;Clima(1:clo)];
        end
    else
        if ann==0 then
            Pred=[Clima(beg:365);Clima(1:clo)];
        else
            Pred=Clima(beg:365);
            for j=2:ann
                Pred=[Pred;Clima];
            end
            Pred=[Pred;Clima(1:clo)];
        end
    end

endfunction