Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 30 50 60 60 50 30 10 10 20 D NASA GMAO frm February 2002 10 10 20 40 60 70 70 70-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: FMA 40 70 90 110 120 110-999-999-999 D JMA 10 20 30 40 55 65 80 90 90 D SCRIPPS -10 0 0 -10 0 0 0-999-999 D LDEO -10 -10 0 0 10 -10 -20 -30 -30 D AUS/POAMA 40 60 75 70-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 D KMA SNU 10 20 50 60 70 90 110 130 140 S CPC MRKOV -50 -50 -50 -50 -40 -30 -30 -20 -10 S CDC LIM -20 -20 -10 -00 -00 -00 -10 -00 -00 S CPC CA 8 28 48 69 77 87 106 125 136 S CPC CCA 0 0 0 0 0 -10 -20 -10 0 S CSU CLIPR 30 40 50 60 70 70 80 90 100 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 60 80 80 80 60 40 30 40 40 D NASA GMAO frm March 2002 20 30 40 50 60 70 70 80-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: MAM 70 100 120 120 110-999-999-999-999 D JMA 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 90 D SCRIPPS 30 40 40 50 70 100 120-999-999 D LDEO -10 0 0 10 -10 -20 -30 -30-999 D AUS/POAMA 60 68 65-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 30 30 30 30 30 40 40 50 50 D KMA SNU 30 40 50 50 70 80 100 110 120 S CPC MRKOV -40 -40 -40 -40 -40 -30 -30 -20 -20 S CDC LIM -30 -30 -30 -30 -30 -40 -40 -40 -30 S CPC CA 30 50 67 80 90 105 124 135 130 S CPC CCA 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 40 50 S CSU CLIPR 0 10 10 20 40 50 80 80 90 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 80 90 70 50 40 20 20 10 0 D NASA GMAO frm April 2002 50 60 70 80 80 80 90 100-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: AMJ 70 90 120 120 120 110-999-999-999 D JMA obs: JFM 0.1 Mar 0.2 40 50 60 60 70 80 90 100 110 D SCRIPPS 20 30 40 50 70 100 120-999-999 D LDEO -10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -30 -30-999 D AUS/POAMA 50 60 50 50-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 40 40 50 60 60 70 70 70 70 D KMA SNU 40 50 50 60 70 90 100 110 110 S CPC MRKOV -20 -20 -10 -10 -10 0 0 0 -10 S CDC LIM 10 10 20 20 10 0 0 0 0 S CPC CA 52 67 81 95 108 123 137 132 129 S CPC CCA 50 50 60 60 70 90 120 150 140 S CSU CLIPR 0 10 20 30 50 60 80 90 100 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 100 117 114 94 70 54 41 28 20 D NASA GMAO frm May 2002 49 57 66 69 72 82 88 92-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: MJJ 93 111 119 119 120 124-999-999-999 D JMA obs FMA 0.23 Apr 0.26 49 60 68 76 84 93 103 110 98 D SCRIPPS 12 18 27 39 53 64 75-999-999 D LDEO -20 -21 -21 -21 -22 -22 -26 -34 -48 D AUS/POAMA 65 62 64 66-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 38 40 43 50 57 60 60 60 57 D KMA SNU 46 46 58 71 89 99 111 113 108 S CPC MRKOV -20 -15 -10 -5 1 5 7 7 3 S CDC LIM 25 30 33 31 31 37 41 44 41 S CPC CA 73 94 115 136 138 141 143 145 147 S CPC CCA 76 80 85 89 94 110 126 142 120 S CSU CLIPR 22 35 49 64 80 90 100 110 123 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 51 47 42 37 35 45 64 89 104 D NASA GMAO frm June 2002 47 47 48 52 63 79 89 85-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: JJA 85 100 109 117 118 116-999-999-999 D JMA obs MAM 0.35 May 0.47 40 52 64 77 83 89 95 87 79 D SCRIPPS 58 67 78 86 98 114 125-999-999 D LDEO 27 35 25 20 12 07 03-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 36 28 32 35-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 37 40 41 47 57 60 62 61 57 D KMA SNU 36 47 59 76 86 98 101 98 90 S CPC MRKOV -10 4 21 20 24 28 32 38 43 S CDC LIM 36 36 35 35 45 46 42 30 24 S CPC CA 84 96 109 121 139 151 146 130 105 S CPC CCA 59 65 70 76 91 106 121 94 67 S CSU CLIPR 39 53 67 81 91 101 111 124 136 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 26 24 18 7 6 13 26 33 38 D NASA GMAO frm July 2002 68 58 57 64 77 84 79 74-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: JAS 76 88 112 118 111 90-999-999-999 D JMA obs AMJ 0.54 Jun 0.98 88 98 106 114 121 129 110 92 73 D SCRIPPS 73 80 90 102 120 133 130-999-999 D LDEO 70 53 47 47 49 50 52 52-999 DxAUS/POAMA 97 103 92 95-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 45 47 53 57 52 54 53 50 41 D KMA SNU 59 73 92 115 117 112 102 100 97 S CPC MRKOV 8 9 10 11 11 10 10 14 18 S CDC LIM 42 39 41 46 49 50 47 41 34 S CPC CA 77 92 110 132 144 143 131 111 99 S CPC CCA 64 99 135 171 142 114 85 69 52 S CSU CLIPR 118 121 126 134 136 132 123 117 115 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 90 67 47 35 48 60 77 82 91 D NASA GMAO frm August 2002 61 50 54 65 73 67 52 41-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: ASO 77 92 101 97 83 65-999-999-999 D JMA obs MJJ 0.75 Jul 0.92 105 112 112 111 110 97 84 71 47 D SCRIPPS 85 98 114 133 145 142 128 110-999 D LDEO 44 64 74 80 85 89 87 77 62 D AUS/POAMA 98 101 104 108-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 79 83 92 99 93 91 87 79 70 D KMA SNU 90 112 124 138 141 134 121 116 110 S CPC MRKOV 19 14 8 1 -3 -7 -10 -13 -17 S CDC LIM 52 57 62 59 49 39 32 32 21 S CPC CA 86 107 131 147 150 138 115 95 90 S CPC CCA 65 99 135 171 142 114 85 69 52 S CSU CLIPR 125 129 130 120 112 106 101 99 99 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 109 113 109 104 100 98 107 112 114 D NASA GMAO frm September 2002 84 84 98 103 90 70 58 57-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: SON 95 107 106 92 70 57-999-999-999 D JMA obs JJA 0.98 Aug 1.09 113 107 104 100 89 79 68 55 40 D SCRIPPS 138 151 165 169 151 129 101 82-999 D LDEO 64 74 80 85 89 87 77 62 49 DeAUS/POAMA 75 105 107 108-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 113 110 107 103 97 90 80 70 57 D KMA SNU 110 124 138 141 136 124 120 116 110 S CPC MRKOV 11 -3 -17 -30 -34 -28 -42 -38 -35 S CDC LIM 67 66 62 57 45 30 24 9 -8 S CPC CA 95 107 118 119 118 101 88 75 72 S CPC CCA 111 111 110 110 94 79 63 42 22 S CSU CLIPR 167 159 150 139 129 119 110 103 99 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 79 80 71 64 66 87 107 113 101 D NASA GMAO frm October 2002 80 84 98 103 90 70 58 57-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: OND 119 128 119 101 89 86-999-999-999 D JMA obs JAS 1.06 Sep 1.19 88 76 82 76 69 63 53 42 33 D SCRIPPS 157 169 178 153 111 69 40 15-999 D LDEO 74 88 83 81 77 68 56 51-999 D AUS/POAMA 127 121 112 97-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 122 121 119 110 101 90 78 63 50 D KMA SNU 136 152 155 149 136 131 126 119 107 S CPC MRKOV 11 -2 -15 -28 -33 -39 -44 -38 -32 S CDC LIM 98 91 85 68 48 32 9 -11 -38 S CPC CA 104 114 115 109 103 96 100 94 89 S CPC CCA 127 116 105 94 78 61 45 20 -6 S CSU CLIPR 142 140 134 128 126 113 101 100 100 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 109 100 86 82 90 105 109 107 98 D NASA GMAO frm November 2002 121 111 94 70 58 62 79 100-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: NDJ 134 131 121 112 115 118-999-999-999 D JMA obs ASO 1.24 Oct 1.45 108 97 87 76 66 60 53 47 51 D SCRIPPS 180 176 153 123 96 71 42-999-999 D LDEO 88 83 81 77 68 56 51 46-999 D AUS/POAMA 134 107 80 63-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 137 130 120 110 97 83 67 53 40 D KMA SNU 163 163 154 139 132 126 118 106 105 S CPC MRKOV 20 7 -6 -19 -23 -26 -30 -33 -36 S CDC LIM 120 111 92 69 48 19 -8 -38 -54 S CPC CA 125 130 121 101 88 87 94 86 69 S CPC CCA 158 133 109 84 57 31 4 26 8 S CSU CLIPR 133 127 126 125 124 121 115 109 102 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 211 203 193 185 181 175 158 135 111 D NASA GMAO frm December 2002 127 96 67 56 66 90 111 120-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: DJF 131 124 117 122 130 137-999-999-999 D JMA obs SON 1.47 Nov 1.75 108 96 83 71 58 44 31 36 41 D SCRIPPS 162 146 110 88 66 48 39-999-999 D LDEO 105 83 57 16 -29 -70 -96-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 119 81 58 42-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 143 130 120 107 93 80 63 47 27 D KMA SNU 148 138 123 117 113 107 96 98 103 S CPC MRKOV 39 26 13 0 -4 -8 -12 -15 -19 S CDC LIM 118 102 77 59 30 2 -28 -43 -54 S CPC CA 120 125 109 94 77 71 65 58 52 S CPC CCA 154 116 78 40 22 4 -14 -19 -24 S CSU CLIPR 98 97 96 95 92 89 86 75 62 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 151 127 96 73 44 11 -27 -52 -66 D NASA GMAO frm January 2003 83 55 39 39 45 49 47 47-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: JFM 112 113 116 123 124 117-999-999-999 D JMA obs OND 1.61 Dec 1.62 83 82 81 80 60 40 20 17 18 D SCRIPPS 149 136 105 85 57 34 18 14-999 D LDEO 87 67 17 -16 -50 -82-101-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 117 78 46 14-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 130 120 107 93 77 63 47 30 13 D KMA SNU 124 109 104 101 96 87 90 96 106 S CPC MRKOV 34 19 4 -11 -14 -18 -21 -21 -20 S CDC LIM 92 74 55 31 2 -21 -39 -48 -58 S CPC CA 109 103 94 95 83 73 59 60 60 S CPC CCA 113 82 50 19 6 -8 -21 -29 -37 S CSU CLIPR 60 45 30 15 12 9 7 6 5 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 30 -20 -55 -73 -87 -93-102-100 -90 D NASA GMAO frm February 2003 39 22 20 21 23 26 29 29-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: FMA 94 103 116 125 119 97-999-999-999 D JMA obs NDJ 1.54 Jan 1.26 91 84 63 43 25 23 21 20 37 D SCRIPPS 70 56 40 20 17 21 30 35-999 D LDEO 10 -17 -37 -62 -92-117-132-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 53 24 -5 -29-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 67 53 40 30 20 13 3 -3 -13 D KMA SNU 67 66 67 66 61 66 74 87 92 S CPC MRKOV 33 19 4 -10 -14 -18 -22 -21 -19 S CDC LIM 80 58 26 -6 -37 -47 -68 -82 -89 S CPC CA 102 89 88 94 83 67 53 60 68 S CPC CCA 63 60 57 54 31 8 -15 1 32 S CSU CLIPR 40 27 14 2 1 0 -1 -3 0 S UBC NNET end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 24 -74-130-139-147-151-148-140-126 D NASA GMAO frm March 2003 33 27 29 34 38 41 41 42-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: MAM 94 107 114 109 96 80-999-999-999 D JMA obs DJF 1.22 Feb 0.79 78 55 34 15 12 10 8 26 45 D SCRIPPS 16 11 -34 -48 -39 -28 -30 -37-999 D LDEO 1 -6 6 14 18 2 5-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 17 -10 -30 -39-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 33 20 10 0 -10 -14 -20 -27 -33 D KMA SNU 53 54 53 47 52 58 70 74 82 S CPC MRKOV 19 -1 -21 -40 -48 -55 -62 -63 -64 S CDC LIM 47 17 -8 -28 -46 -59 -75 -84 -87 S CPC CA 95 80 76 73 65 59 53 61 65 S CPC CCA 41 26 12 -4 -8 -11 -14 -12 -11 S CSU CLIPR 40 34 28 23 24 26 28 30 32 S UBC NNET 43 27 13 0 -10 -17 -20 -20-999 S FSU REGR end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST -122-132-142-142-133-116 -96 -74 -54 D NASA GMAO frm April 2003 22 13 17 27 34 38 49 63-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: AMJ 71 89 92 77 62 51-999-999-999 D JMA obs JFM 0.90 Mar 0.66 31 28 26 25 25 26 29 44 57 D SCRIPPS 25 -8 -20 -34 -38 -46 -47 -50-999 D LDEO -21 -15 -2 -4 -14 -28 -34-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -10 -26 -38 -48-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -7 -17 -23 -27 -30 -30 -33 -37 -40 D KMA SNU 48 52 50 58 70 86 93 104 104 S CPC MRKOV 15 -6 -28 -49 -59 -64 -66 -67 -68 S CDC LIM 5 -14 -31 -47 -65 -85 -96-100 -83 S CPC CA 83 77 74 67 68 70 71 72 66 S CPC CCA 12 -5 -19 -29 -29 -28 -26 -24 -22 S CSU CLIPR 36 41 45 49 52 55 57 50 63 S UBC NNET 37 23 13 10 7 3 0 0 0 S FSU REGR end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST -216-235-234-231-226-217-211-169-145 D NASA GMAO frm May 2003 -23 -23 -13 -8 0 10 21-999-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: MJJ 52 63 59 50 46-999-999-999-999 D JMA obs FMA 0.53 Apr 0.13 28 26 25 25 26 29 44 57-999 DxSCRIPPS -27 -38 -41 -44 -54 -61 -68 -70-999 D LDEO -106-109 -92 -78 -75 -73-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -22 -30 -39-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -30 -40 -47 -50 -47 -43 -43 -43 -43 D KMA SNU 15 14 23 33 48 56 68 72 71 S CPC MRKOV 0 -18 -35 -50 -55 -60 -65 -60 -55 S CDC LIM -12 -28 -44 -66 -86 -97 -96 -79 -58 S CPC CA 79 76 69 67 73 80 79 69 55 S CPC CCA -2 -6 -10 -14 -20 -25 -30 -26 -22 S CSU CLIPR -12 -9 -5 -1 9 19 30 45 59 S UBC NNET 1 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -8 -9 S FSU REGR end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST -108-119-127-125-112 -92 -70 -49 -27 D NASA GMAO frm Jun 2003 -81 -73 -57 -43 -34 -23-999-999-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: JJA 12 28 34 40 47 50-999-999-999 D JMA obs MAM 0.13 May-0.39 -40 -49 -59 -68 -72 -75 -76 -61 -42 D SCRIPPS -26 -37 -47 -58 -66 -73 -80 -79-999 D LDEO -74 -87 -89 -77 -67 -54 -36 -19-999 D AUS/POAMA -24 -27 -26-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -57 -63 -63 -60 -53 -50 -50 -47 -43 D KMA SNU -4 -21 -39 -57 -72 -85 -95 -98 -98 D ESSIC ICM -35 -30 -20 -7 8 23 34 40 43 S CPC MRKOV -25 -26 -27 -28 -30 -31 -32 -31 -30 S CDC LIM -47 -66 -92-113-123-122-103 -80 -46 S CPC CA 64 61 62 63 73 75 70 58 43 S CPC CCA -15 -25 -35 -43 -37 -31 -26 -23 -20 S CSU CLIPR -30 -20 -11 -2 10 23 35 53 70 S UBC NNET -23 -18 -14 -11 -10 -10 -10 -11 -11 S FSU REGR end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST -175-201-201-187-170-148-117 -85 -58 D NASA GMAO frm Jul 2003 -46 -42 -33 -25 -12 2 14 23 25 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: JAS -41 -44 -44 -44 -42-999-999-999-999 D JMA obs AMJ-0.10 Jun-0.03 -38 -51 -61 -63 -64 -64 -40 -15 10 D SCRIPPS -20 -25 -31 -33 -35 -34 -32-999-999 D LDEO -24 -57 -56 -45 -34 -16 6-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -12 -24 -27-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -27 -30 -27 -27 -27 -30 -35 -33 -35 D KMA SNU -29 -43 -66 -89-110-129-140-140-133 D ESSIC ICM -7 4 18 34 48 58 61 60 61 S CPC MRKOV -28 -29 -30 -30 -26 -22 -19 -17 -15 S CDC LIM -68 -93-100-115-115-100 -80 -43 13 S CPC CA 1 2 4 6 7 10 14 26 34 S CPC CCA -10 -13 -16 -19 -23 -28 -32 -30 -28 S CSU CLIPR -7 -5 -2 1 10 19 28 47 66 S UBC NNET 16 26 38 48 53 50 43 35 32 S FSU REGR end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 32 26 23 26 31 37 43 48 55 D NASA GMAO frm Aug 2003 21 19 19 21 24 25 24-999-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: ASO -22 -33 -38 -39 -46 -32-999-999-999 D JMA obs MJJ-0.01 Jul 0.36 -23 -12 0 12 24 29 33 36 49 D SCRIPPS 40 27 20 22 30 38 48 50-999 D LDEO -49 -51 -32 -20 -13 -8 1-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 20 17 18 20-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 10 13 13 10 0 -7 -10 -10 -10 D KMA SNU -3 -26 -40 -50 -58 -64 -65 -63 -59 D ESSIC ICM 13 24 37 48 55 56 54 52 54 S CPC MRKOV -25 -25 -25 -25 -23 -21 -19 -16 -13 S CDC LIM -37 -49 -58 -59 -49 -34 -15 0 19 S CPC CA -10 -3 6 15 17 19 20 28 38 S CPC CCA 10 19 27 34 22 10 00 -3 -7 S CSU CLIPR -5 -2 1 10 19 28 47 65 82 SeUBC NNET 59 75 90 109 116 110 88 63 39 S FSU REGR end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 80 81 71 64 63 63 64 69 75 D NASA GMAO frm Sep 2003 18 19 24 28 29 26 24 24-999 D NCEP CFS 1st forecast: SON -12 -20 -20 -17 -8 4-999-999-999 D JMA obs JJA 0.17 Aug 0.15 4 14 24 34 42 50 57 60 63 D SCRIPPS 23 6 -9 -21 -22 -23 -24 -24-999 D LDEO -18 -18 -8 -3 3 10 15 15-999 D AUS/POAMA 14 14 10-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 17 17 10 0 -7 -10 -13 -13 -13 D KMA SNU -12 -24 -30 -36 -42 -45 -45 -44 -44 D ESSIC ICM 11 3-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 20 33 45 52 53 52 51 54 55 S CPC MRKOV 11 4 -3 -10 -12 -15 -17 -16 -15 S CDC LIM -27 -39 -44 -38 -29 -18 -11 -3 2 S CPC CA 1 2 8 14 24 27 28 29 35 S CPC CCA 4 10 16 21 15 9 3 3 4 S CSU CLIPR -3 1 5 9 17 25 33 44 55 S UBC NNET 41 55 68 70 65 54 43 33 22 S FSU REGR end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 25 30 34 42 52 67 84 102 119 D NASA GMAO frm Oct 2003 29 35 42 41 36 32 41-999-999 D NCEP CFS 1st-Last fcst: OND-JJA -11 -12 -10 -3 2-999-999-999-999 D JMA obs JAS 0.27 Sep 0.32 36 47 58 60 63 65 67 69 70 D SCRIPPS 36 30 24 18 21 24 27 30-999 D LDEO 16 27 37 41 42 39 26-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 23 23 24-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 32 28 18 9 4 3 -1 -2 -3 D KMA SNU 2 -4 -14 -24 -32 -39 -45 -50 -57 D ESSIC ICM -999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 DxECHAM/MOM 16 27 35 38 39 40 46 49 51 S CPC MRKOV 30 24 17 10 4 -3 -9 -12 -15 S CDC LIM -4 -6 -4 -1 -2 -8 -8 -4 -4 S CPC CA 1 1 6 14 30 38 48 50 55 S CPC CCA 3 -5 -12 -20 -17 -14 -11 -24 -38 S CSU CLIPR 2 11 21 30 36 42 48 54 59 S UBC NNET 58 61 61 50 37 21 05 -10 -24 S FSU REGR end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 24 26 28 35 41 53 61 70 75 D NASA GMAO frm Nov 2003 32 33 35 34 35 48 17-999-999 D NCEP CFS 1st-Last fcst: NDJ-JAS 51 49 51 61 77-999-999-999-999 D JMA obs ASO 0.36 Oct 0.60 62 65 68 71 74 71 67 63 65 D SCRIPPS 50 40 26 21 16 21 39 63-999 D LDEO 57 75 92 87 74 48 8-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 57 48 37-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 34 22 13 8 7 6 3 2 -1 D KMA SNU 29 19 6 -5 -15 -24 -32 -39 -49 D ESSIC ICM 18 19 21-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 68 82 81 51 22 -3 -19 -31 -42 D COLA ANOM 29 36 38 38 38 42 43 44 44 S CPC MRKOV 47 39 31 24 18 12 6 0 -5 S CDC LIM 6 5 0 -7 -11 -13 -20 -24 -30 S CPC CA 12 18 23 25 36 46 61 63 60 S CPC CCA 63 53 44 35 20 5 -9 -2 5 S CSU CLIPR 4 16 28 39 46 53 60 71 81 S UBC NNET 73 71 58 43 28 13 -1 -14 -24 S FSU REGR end Forecast First/Last Obs Nino3.4 SST 70 67 67 79 93 108 120 126 128 D NASA GMAO frm Dec 2003 59 64 60 54 62 86 110-999-999 D NCEP CFS 1st-Last fcst: DJF-ASO 60 62 68 80 88-999-999-999-999 D JMA obs SON 0.48 Nov 0.52 69 72 74 76 74 72 69 71 72 D SCRIPPS 28 25 22 19 39 59 76 76-999 D LDEO 45 51 60 66 69 70-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 68 52 39-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 22 14 11 11 10 12 10 9 3 D KMA SNU 21 13 5 -2 -9 -14 -19 -26 -35 D ESSIC ICM -999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 DxECHAM/MOM 92 78 32 -11 -40 -53 -55 -58 -55 D COLA ANOM 44 45 45 45 49 50 51 52 60 S CPC MRKOV 57 52 48 43 38 33 28 16 4 S CDC LIM 15 11 3 -9 -20 -28 -37 -39 -48 S CPC CA 19 35 39 39 39 44 51 52 55 S CPC CCA 29 32 36 39 44 48 53 59 65 S CSU CLIPR 40 53 66 79 85 91 96 101 105 S UBC NNET 56 45 34 27 23 16 8 0 -2 S FSU REGR 73 64 54 43 33 28 29 35 41 S UCLA-TCD end ================================== ===FORMAT CHANGE=== Forecast issued Jan 2004 (needed for new web plots) First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND 0.52 Dec 0.42 84 82 87 103 117 127 124 119 115 D NASA GMAO 41 39 34 44 67 94 100-999-999 D NCEP CFS 67 73 85 96 106-999-999-999-999 D JMA 74 77 78 72 65 59 57 60-999 D SCRIPPS 13 6 5 9 18 28 38-999-999 D LDEO 6 19 25 29 29 29-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 38 33 27-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -6 -10 -9 -7 -4 0 -2 -7 -14 D KMA SNU 20 17 14 11 8 4 -1 -9 -14 D ESSIC ICM 39 29-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 47 40 27 10 0 -14 -7 -10 -7 D COLA ANOM 16 17 20 27 31 34 37 46 58 S CPC MRKOV 80 76 72 68 62 56 49 39 29 S CDC LIM 35 26 13 4 -2 -11 -15 -23 -23 S CPC CA 29 41 45 51 51 52 52 57 63 S CPC CCA 28 23 19 15 17 20 22 26 30 S CSU CLIPR 49 62 75 88 94 100 105 107 108 S UBC NNET 32 28 29 32 33 30 24 25 29 S FSU REGR 25 15 11 9 10 15 21 25 24 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Feb 2004 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ 0.39 Jan 0.22 50 56 73 100 119 128 134 141 148 D NASA GMAO 31 31 39 56 74 82 81-999-999 D NCEP CFS 68 80 93 108 114-999-999-999-999 D JMA 72 68 61 56 54 56 61 69 78 D SCRIPPS 7 14 23 34 43 49 62-999-999 D LDEO -13 -1 13 23 24 16-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 29 26 23-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -12 -13 -10 -3 2 5 -1 -8 -13 D KMA SNU 16 13 10 6 3 -1 -6 -8 -7 D ESSIC ICM 28 29-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 36 42 37 29 21 17 13 4 -7 D COLA ANOM 13 18 27 33 38 43 54 69 83 S CPC MRKOV 80 76 73 70 67 64 62 52 42 S CDC LIM 28 16 4 -5 -14 -22 -35 -43 -45 S CPC CA 35 42 51 64 65 65 67 79 93 S CPC CCA 15 22 28 34 28 22 16 22 28 S CSU CLIPR 66 72 77 82 85 88 91 95 99 S UBC NNET 19 20 25 27 26 22 21 22 28 S FSU REGR 37 33 32 33 35 36 35 34 27 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Mar 2004 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF 0.27 Feb 0.16 33 30 28 25 21 19 21 25 29 D NASA GMAO 32 24 17 23 35 43-999-999-999 D NCEP CFS 61 76 91 98 91-999-999-999-999 D JMA 53 47 44 46 51 59 67 76 84 D SCRIPPS 5 15 22 13 -4 -7 7-999-999 D LDEO 33 41 55 75 88 91 98-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 24 26 25-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -16 -15 -8 0 5 3 -5 -9 -11 D KMA SNU 24 24 23 22 21 17 15 15 16 D ESSIC ICM 8 8-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 37 32 24 16 12 8 -1 -12-999 DxCOLA ANOM -3 7 15 20 26 36 50 64 76 S CPC MRKOV 40 31 22 13 8 3 -2 -7 -12 S CDC LIM 00 -7 -10 -17 -24 -33 -32 -30 -31 S CPC CA 41 40 43 49 49 52 56 68 75 S CPC CCA 6 3 0 -2 -5 -8 -11 -10 -8 S CSU CLIPR 13 20 28 35 40 46 51 63 74 S UBC NNET 22 28 35 42 45 50 55 61 63 S FSU REGR 15 24 30 34 37 41 44 42 36 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Apr 2004 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM 0.12 Mar -0.05 85 111 131 135 139 149 166 180 179 D NASA GMAO 42 35 16 12 24-999-999-999-999 D NCEP CFS 55 67 82 89 96-999-999-999-999 D JMA 19 20 28 37 47 56 65 73 78 D SCRIPPS 20 40 54 62 74 88 96-999-999 D LDEO 42 69 98 109 103 92 83-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 36 47 52-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -17 -11 -4 3 1 -2 -8 -10 -9 D KMA SNU 9 8 10 11 9 7 7 7 4 D ESSIC ICM -1 18-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -29 -25 -15 -7 -7 -9 -1 32 55 D COLA ANOM -4 01 04 11 21 34 45 52 53 S CPC MRKOV 20 14 8 2 -2 -6 -10 -12 -14 S CDC LIM 14 22 24 20 16 22 28 31 27 S CPC CA 45 48 53 56 62 69 77 82 80 S CPC CCA -20 -28 -36 -44 -39 -34 -29 -26 -23 S CSU CLIPR 10 18 25 32 43 54 66 72 78 S UBC NNET 20 33 41 50 58 65 66 60 46 S FSU REGR 10 22 30 36 43 48 53 56 42 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2004 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA 0.09 Apr 0.15 33 38 39 40 45 55 67 76 78 D NASA GMAO -11 -22 -26 -17 -5 -1 -2-999-999 D NCEP CFS 62 81 94 102 107-999-999-999-999 D JMA 14 22 33 43 52 61 67 72 74 D SCRIPPS 43 56 64 78 95 105 102-999-999 D LDEO 24 46 65 76 75 69 63-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 40 48 53-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -24 -13 1 8 8 5 -2 -5 -8 D KMA SNU 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 10 4 D ESSIC ICM -13 16 25-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -35 -43 -47 -46 -48 -52 -39 -16 6 D COLA ANOM 2 6 8 16 26 38 49 55 55 S CPC MRKOV 11 8 4 0 -2 -5 -8 -12 -15 S CDC LIM 22 45 51 47 48 58 67 76 74 S CPC CA 53 60 65 74 88 103 109 101 86 S CPC CCA 4 1 -1 -3 1 5 8 6 5 S CSU CLIPR -2 5 11 17 29 41 53 60 67 S UBC NNET 28 35 39 46 55 63 66 60 48 S FSU REGR 22 30 36 43 48 53 56 42-999 SxUCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jun 2004 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM 0.14 May 0.29 38 39 40 45 55 67 76 78-999 DxNASA GMAO 19 19 23 28 30 26 23-999-999 D NCEP CFS 57 79 94 103 107-999-999-999-999 D JMA 20 30 40 49 57 64 68 70 68 D SCRIPPS 33 39 50 64 73 73 67-999-999 D LDEO 28 37 43 37 36 36-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 61 66 64-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -5 -7 -13 -18 -19 -16 -14 -10 -8 D KMA SNU -2 -3 -5 -11 -15 -16 -19 -23 -25 D ESSIC ICM 45 58 70 72 71-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -8 -23 -42 -41 -8 29 47 37-999 D COLA ANOM -7 -1 8 21 35 48 57 59 58 S CPC MRKOV 8 6 4 2 0 -3 -5 -7 -8 S CDC LIM 57 55 53 62 70 78 75 62 41 S CPC CA 58 64 73 83 90 89 80 70 56 S CPC CCA 1 14 27 40 38 36 33 23 14 S CSU CLIPR 7 5 3 1 2 4 6 13 21 S UBC NNET 35 39 41 48 57 67 71 67 54 S FSU REGR 13 7 2 -1 -2 -2 -2 2 19 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2004 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 0.24 Jun 0.27 16 21 26 37 53 62 61 55 51 D NASA GMAO 40 52 68 70 65 53 46-999-999 D NCEP CFS 58 79 97 107 109-999-999-999-999 D JMA 46 57 66 72 78 81 80 77 69 D SCRIPPS 47 68 84 94 92 82 66-999-999 D LDEO 5 12 15 20 29 38-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 64 69 74-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 8 2 -5 -7 -4 2 4 7 9 D KMA SNU 16 12 7 7 3 -3 -7 -9-999 D ESSIC ICM -43 -58 -53 -45 -56-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 2 -8 12 46 62 52 31 13 2 D COLA ANOM 11 22 36 51 64 72 71 68 65 S CPC MRKOV 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 -1 -2 S CDC LIM 46 50 63 78 86 83 69 53 40 S CPC CA 31 40 50 62 68 68 64 61 60 S CPC CCA 16 28 41 53 44 35 26 20 13 S CSU CLIPR 22 22 22 22 21 20 19 19 18 S UBC NNET 44 61 79 100 110 98 79 58 50 S FSU REGR 61 68 76 85 90 91 89 86 84 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Aug 2004 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ 0.38 Jul 0.59 20 11 3 1 1 3 4 17 38 D NASA GMAO 83 83 92 98 98 96 93-999-999 D NCEP CFS 54 72 85 94 97-999-999-999-999 D JMA 64 71 76 79 81 81 77 70 61 D SCRIPPS 82 107 124 127 117 97 72-999-999 D LDEO 38 42 50 55 55 60 62-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 74 74 79-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 45 38 36 36 37 37 35 36 35 D KMA SNU 34 34 36 37 32 22 13 9 6 D ESSIC ICM 78 69 47 33 26-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 18 12 26 42 46 36 28 26 19 D COLA ANOM 49 67 85 98 105 102 95 88 86 S CPC MRKOV 16 15 13 12 10 8 6 4 2 S CDC LIM 50 63 78 82 73 56 38 26 10 S CPC CA 36 50 67 79 81 76 66 62 69 S CPC CCA 32 52 70 86 69 49 28 31 34 S CSU CLIPR 14 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 20 S UBC NNET 61 70 81 95 101 92 79 65 59 S FSU REGR 59 65 70 72 73 71 69 67 66 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Sep 2004 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA 0.57 Aug 0.83 116 93 68 52 40 40 45 56 62 D NASA GMAO 59 66 76 80 70 54 42-999-999 D NCEP CFS 58 62 70 76 77 78 76-999-999 D NCEP CFS 77 90 99 103 101-999-999-999-999 D JMA 79 82 83 82 80 77 69 59 49 D SCRIPPS 103 123 129 117 91 58 29-999-999 D LDEO 51 51 57 63 70 69 61-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 86 93 94-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 44 42 42 42 40 41 41 41 37 D KMA SNU 67 79 86 80 67 54 47 46 46 D ESSIC ICM 145 155 149 135 124-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 71 70 69 63 54 44 35 30 22 D COLA ANOM 58 77 91 99 97 91 87 87 85 S CPC MRKOV 32 29 26 23 19 16 12 8 5 S CDC LIM 64 78 82 73 56 38 26 13 1 S CPC CA 64 79 89 93 97 88 79 75 79 S CPC CCA 147 139 131 122 86 49 13 14 15 S CSU CLIPR 32 31 29 28 26 24 22 22 23 S UBC NNET 94 107 112 105 89 68 52 37 26 S FSU REGR 80 98 114 123 121 113 103 92 85 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Oct 2004 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS 0.76 Sep 0.83 80 71 72 74 80 99 126 157 177 D NASA GMAO 59 68 82 107 110 91 72 70-999 D NCEP CFS 57 67 74 79 85-999-999-999-999 D JMA 85 85 85 84 81 73 62 51 44 D SCRIPPS 99 104 97 82 63 47 38 32 25 D LDEO 83 101 117 122 114 88 44-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 81 77 72-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 39 40 41 39 40 42 41 39 35 D KMA SNU 68 75 67 52 38 29 25 23 20 D ESSIC ICM 63 62 71 66 47-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 124 128 112 84 63 53 41 35 24 D COLA ANOM 76 91 98 96 91 86 86 84 83 S CPC MRKOV 38 16 15 13 12 10 08 06 04 S CDC LIM 83 87 80 62 42 28 18 9 -2 S CPC CA 63 68 70 68 71 70 77 77 79 S CPC CCA 89 79 69 58 48 39 30 13 -4 S CSU CLIPR 23 20 22 25 27 27 27 27 27 S UBC NNET 123 130 124 106 81 62 45 29 17 S FSU REGR 107 108 102 89 76 64 56 53 54 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Nov 2004 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO 0.82 Oct 0.79 78 66 55 51 56 68 75 75 66 D NASA GMAO 65 79 97 95 78 62 56 50-999 D NCEP CFS 72 79 84 89 105-999-999-999-999 D JMA 86 85 83 80 72 61 50 43 42 D SCRIPPS 85 86 78 68 61 59 58 55 52 D LDEO 95 110 116 99 70 24 1-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 89 82 69-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 41 40 38 38 41 43 40 36 31 D KMA SNU 91 85 69 55 46 42 39 36 35 D ESSIC ICM 94 104 107 96 84-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 121 119 98 68 49 32 19 1 -11 D COLA ANOM 68 75 74 69 67 70 71 72 75 S CPC MRKOV 69 62 55 48 40 31 22 15 8 S CDC LIM 103 99 82 63 50 39 31 18 9 S CPC CA 74 78 76 67 67 73 87 87 81 S CPC CCA 86 73 60 46 32 19 5 10 15 S CSU CLIPR 17 17 22 27 32 35 38 41 38 S UBC NNET 98 95 80 61 47 34 21 09 -1 S FSU REGR 92 91 87 82 76 71 68 70 75 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Dec 2004 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON 0.80 Nov 0.79 51 32 26 27 35 41 47 50-999 D NASA GMAO 72 82 91 84 76 78 80 81-999 D NCEP CFS 91 91 95 103 110-999-999-999-999 D JMA 87 85 81 73 62 50 44 42 46 D SCRIPPS 75 71 68 68 71 73 70 68 75 D LDEO 91 106 107 89 55 18 -21 -50-999 D AUS/POAMA 86 74 65-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 49 44 43 47 48 48 41 35 30 D KMA SNU 70 57 44 34 34 33 31 29 30 D ESSIC ICM 63 54 46 43 43-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 124 120 95 59 25 -2 -30 -38 -41 D COLA ANOM 74 72 66 62 63 61 60 60 66 S CPC MRKOV 78 71 63 55 45 35 25 17 9 S CDC LIM 94 74 56 43 34 31 24 21 18 S CPC CA 80 90 83 75 69 71 76 75 77 S CPC CCA 71 51 31 10 15 20 24 16 8 S CSU CLIPR 86 91 86 81 75 70 64 59 57 S UBC NNET 80 68 55 45 37 30 21 14 12 S FSU REGR 84 74 63 54 48 47 49 54 61 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jan 2005 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND 0.81 Dec 0.85 85 66 46 33 16 3 -14 -24 -30 D NASA GMAO 45 43 40 27 10 -9 -12 -10-999 D NCEP CFS 82 91 103 113 117-999-999-999-999 D JMA 89 84 73 60 48 42 42 47 56 D SCRIPPS 75 75 79 84 86 83 80 83 92 D LDEO 64 72 80 82 79 81 89 101-999 D AUS/POAMA 50 45 37-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 58 48 40-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 45 43 47 50 49 46 38 32 24 D KMA SNU 58 56 57 62 69 77 85 96 116 D ESSIC ICM 51 61 53 31 13-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 40 77 55 63 37 16 -20 -53 -53 D COLA ANOM 55 49 45 46 45 45 45 51 60 S CPC MRKOV 70 65 61 57 49 41 32 23 14 S CDC LIM 70 60 55 52 53 49 40 37 43 S CPC CA 68 75 76 82 81 82 80 88 95 S CPC CCA 59 46 33 20 11 2 -6 -9 -12 S CSU CLIPR 86 86 83 79 75 78 81 84 83 S UBC NNET 62 50 46 43 37 25 12 9 11 S FSU REGR 73 62 52 48 44 45 48 55 59 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Feb 2005 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ 0.75 Jan 0.61 20 6 5 3 -3 -11 -11 -6 1 D NASA GMAO 32 23 11 -2 -14 -22 -19 0-999 D NCEP CFS 82 105 124 138 138-999-999-999-999 D JMA 86 69 51 38 32 33 38 47 59 D SCRIPPS 41 43 49 52 47 39 42 56 69 D LDEO 35 47 63 72 76 69 54-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 46 49 49-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 27 40 55-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 23 26 30 34 35 36 32 26 19 D KMA SNU 46 50 59 69 79 90 104 128 156 D ESSIC ICM 79 78 79 78 74-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 64 64 56 49 44 45 45 44 35 D COLA ANOM 39 39 41 44 46 48 56 64 72 S CPC MRKOV 65 54 51 47 44 37 31 24 17 S CDC LIM 47 41 38 39 38 37 36 40 48 S CPC CA 58 63 72 86 87 85 86 100 116 S CPC CCA 35 35 34 34 17 0 -17 -2 13 S CSU CLIPR 70 74 82 89 96 105 113 122 120 S UBC NNET 46 43 45 44 41 33 31 33 41 S FSU REGR 45 45 57 50 55 61 69 73 73 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Mar 2005 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF 0.57 Feb 0.27 26 13 1 -16 -36 -53 -61 -58 -53 D NASA GMAO 38 20 10 -8 -17 -19 -11 -10-999 D NCEP CFS 72 100 119 123 120-999-999-999-999 D JMA 47 30 22 21 26 33 40 50 58 D SCRIPPS 37 38 37 32 25 25 31 39 44 D LDEO 26 35 44 56 59 66 73-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 41 43 44 43-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 32 13 -15-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 9 9 10 17 24 29 24 16 11 D KMA SNU 53 63 75 88 102 121 147 175 191 D ESSIC ICM 12 34 56 75 81-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 13 38 58 64 69 76 84 87 100 D COLA ANOM 35 38 42 45 48 57 66 75 79 S CPC MRKOV 11 8 5 2 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 S CDC LIM 38 37 41 41 38 32 32 40 57 S CPC CA 41 46 58 74 80 91 104 113 114 S CPC CCA 7 -1 -8 -15 -19 -23 -27 -27 -26 S CSU CLIPR 27 27 61 94 128 130 131 133 125 S UBC NNET 34 42 47 48 45 48 55 67 74 S FSU REGR 20 14 9 5 2 -3 -10 -16 -22 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Apr 2005 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM 0.42 Mar 0.39 47 48 36 9 -18 -32 -34 -35 -34 D NASA GMAO 23 14 4 -5 -10 -8 -9 -10-999 D NCEP CFS 77 101 116 122 122-999-999-999-999 D JMA 5 1 4 9 15 21 28 34 39 D SCRIPPS 34 41 46 51 62 76 89 94 92 D LDEO 49 77 105 121 125 127 121-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 37 42 47-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -38 -74-112-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 6 2 8 18 26 26 16 12 10 D KMA SNU 57 68 79 90 107 133 161 177 170 D ESSIC ICM -65 -81 -86 -90 -94-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -13 -11 -7 -6 -8 -7 -4 3 43 D COLA ANOM 46 47 47 48 54 60 65 68 66 S CPC MRKOV 4 -7 -8 -9 -9 -7 -4 -2 0 S CDC LIM 22 25 23 12 6 12 30 49 56 S CPC CA 73 75 80 81 88 95 104 108 101 S CPC CCA 1 -3 -7 -10 -1 8 15 13 11 S CSU CLIPR 10 -5 35 75 115 114 113 112 114 S UBC NNET 66 77 85 85 94 105 120 127 120 S FSU REGR 46 48 51 55 60 64 63 58 47 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2005 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA 0.34 Apr 0.36 39 24 2 -18 -30 -31 -32 -32 -30 D NASA GMAO 14 11 9 12 18 20 10 -7-999 D NCEP CFS 81 93 99 100 101-999-999-999-999 D JMA 2 4 9 15 22 30 38 43 46 D SCRIPPS 40 47 57 70 82 89 88 82 74 D LDEO 59 82 95 99 93 83 63-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 32 37 41-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -22 -67-107-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 12 15 21 25 24 23 15 12 10 DeKMA SNU 37 40 42 45 51 62 69 64 50 D ESSIC ICM 43 36 32 17 20-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 11 -2 -15 -24 -30 -20 1 20 21 D COLA ANOM 15 13 10 11 16 22 29 33 32 S CPC MRKOV -20 -23 -26 -29 -26 -22 -19 -14 -9 S CDC LIM 14 13 6 1 2 8 12 14 16 S CPC CA 90 98 102 112 132 154 160 144 119 S CPC CCA 37 44 52 59 43 37 31 25 19 S CSU CLIPR -3 -16 24 65 105 100 96 92 92 S UBC NNET 60 69 73 83 95 110 115 106 87 S FSU REGR 47 44 43 42 40 34 25 17 10 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jun 2005 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM 0.40 May 0.44 56 53 50 52 54 55 52 49 45 D NASA GMAO -9 -24 -30 -29 -26 -26 -27 -27-999 D NCEP CFS 23 19 22 26 32-999-999-999-999 D JMA 27 35 45 58 71 82 89 90 86 D SCRIPPS 35 47 58 62 58 51 45 42 37 D LDEO -9 -8 -5 -3 -8 -9 -2-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 46 56 58-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 61 49 34-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 19 28 34 32 23 20 15 13 10 D KMA SNU 30 27 26 26 30 33 29 17 6 D ESSIC ICM 1 -9 -9 -21 -33-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 2 0 -6 -16 -5 20 42 37 29 D COLA ANOM 12 6 5 6 10 15 18 17 15 S CPC MRKOV -10 -15 -20 -26 -25 -24 -24 -20 -17 S CDC LIM 24 16 10 9 12 12 12 13 20 S CPC CA 82 86 94 103 119 124 116 101 80 S CPC CCA 39 48 57 66 63 59 56 47 37 S CSU CLIPR 21 10 33 56 79 90 101 112 118 S UBC NNET 46 46 49 55 60 63 60 52 42 S FSU REGR 59 65 70 73 73 72 69 67 66 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2005 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 0.45 Jun 0.56 -55 -69 -71 -65 -56 -48 -36 -23 -10 D NASA GMAO -39 -61 -60 -58 -55 -61 -61 -62-999 D NCEP CFS 1 -2 5 12 21-999-999-999-999 D JMA 56 69 84 99 111 119 117 108 93 D SCRIPPS 71 89 109 124 128 119 102 82 63 D LDEO -38 -46 -44 -42 -36 -24 -12-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 45 48 56-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 52 25 1-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 37 41 37 28 20 16 11 9 6 D KMA SNU 37 31 30 32 34 28 17 5 -5 D ESSIC ICM -8 -9 -8 -13 -25-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 13 14 15 3 11 28 45 38 29 D COLA ANOM 0 -2 -1 3 8 11 12 11 10 S CPC MRKOV -2 -13 -24 -35 -39 -43 -47 -46 -45 S CDC LIM 22 15 13 13 11 9 9 15 32 S CPC CA 66 76 87 101 104 98 86 71 61 S CPC CCA 62 71 80 89 87 86 84 65 47 S CSU CLIPR 33 26 43 59 75 91 107 123 119 S UBC NNET 56 61 68 77 81 74 63 48 34 S FSU REGR 69 76 82 84 79 70 61 54 50 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Aug 2005 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ 0.48 Jul 0.45 3 3 10 17 21 21 25 31 42 D NASA GMAO -25 -24 -24 -31 -40 -43 -42 -40-999 D NCEP CFS 24 14 12 17 18-999-999-999-999 D JMA 75 92 107 119 126 124 114 97 79 D SCRIPPS 47 54 62 66 62 55 45 37 30 D LDEO -52 -42 -30 -24 -17 -2 11-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 14 13 20-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 5 -3 -17-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 26 21 13 8 3 0 -3 -4 -5 D KMA SNU 16 10 8 8 3 -6 -16 -25 -33 D ESSIC ICM 40 53 48 35 27-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 33 37 54 68 68 47 28 7 -12 D COLA ANOM 0 0 3 7 9 9 7 7 10 S CPC MRKOV -12 -21 -30 -39 -41 -43 -45 -43 -41 S CDC LIM 24 23 25 25 25 25 30 45 58 S CPC CA 61 74 90 98 94 83 66 52 59 S CPC CCA 48 68 89 109 92 76 59 48 38 S CSU CLIPR 26 17 33 49 65 78 90 103 101 S UBC NNET 52 58 66 69 66 56 44 32 21 S FSU REGR 25 25 22 18 14 11 10 11 12 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Sep 2005 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA 0.37 Aug 0.17 -12 -12 0 16 27 37 44 59 69 D NASA GMAO -05 -09 -12 -25 -26 -24 -21 -11-999 D NCEP CFS 15 7 12 10 33-999-999-999-999 D JMA 75 88 100 109 109 101 87 72 60 D SCRIPPS 61 75 84 85 81 72 62 51 44 D LDEO -79 -74 -52 -36 -21 -1 19-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 15 20 21-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 60 58 33-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 20 13 10 7 4 3 -1 -2 -4 D KMA SNU 19 22 25 22 13 2 -8 -16 -24 D ESSIC ICM 22 21 15 15 27-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 21 44 59 68 62 48 26 0 -17 D COLA ANOM 7 13 18 21 21 19 17 20 21 S CPC MRKOV -11 -18 -25 -33 -34 -34 -35 -33 -30 S CDC LIM 24 26 30 33 35 35 43 45 44 S CPC CA 45 53 58 58 59 51 44 37 34 S CPC CCA 23 32 42 51 40 29 18 14 9 S CSU CLIPR 7 2 21 40 59 59 60 60 59 S UBC NNET 25 31 34 35 30 23 18 12 8 S FSU REGR 25 25 22 18 13 10 8 8 7 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Oct 2005 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS 0.18 Sep -0.02 52 57 65 67 63 64 69 74 73 D NASA GMAO -18 -29 -35 -26 -17 -8 0 15-999 D NCEP CFS 6 17 18 26 34-999-999-999-999 D JMA 57 66 74 76 71 63 58 56 57 D SCRIPPS 40 51 57 58 56 51 45 40 38 D LDEO -89 -77 -50 -28 -9 7 24-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 29 32 36-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 11 -5 -18-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 12 11 11 11 11 12 10 7 6 D KMA SNU 42 48 45 32 16 2 -9 -20 -34 D ESSIC ICM 26 15 1 2 12-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 36 56 67 73 52 27 4 -10 -15 D COLA ANOM -22 -16 -11 -8 -5 -1 7 13 18 S CPC MRKOV -3 -7 -10 -14 -14 -15 -15 -14 -12 S CDC LIM 19 23 27 31 36 42 44 41 32 S CPC CA 35 36 36 35 40 41 46 45 45 S CPC CCA -2 0 2 4 0 -4 -8 -21 -33 S CSU CLIPR -9 -13 15 43 71 67 64 60 64 S UBC NNET 5 7 8 7 7 9 11 13 14 S FSU REGR 22 23 21 17 16 14 14 12 13 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Nov 2005 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO 0.12 Oct 0.20 -15 -26 -24 -11 6 28 49 68 82 D NASA GMAO -49 -62 -58 -52 -48 -47 -43 -43-999 D NCEP CFS 6 7 19 32 55-999-999-999-999 D JMA 34 38 36 31 27 30 38 48 59 D SCRIPPS 34 47 56 64 71 78 86 92 98 D LDEO -67 -41 1 28 37 42 49-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 11 6 4-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -48 -63 -63-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -35 -38 -35 -30 -25 -17 -15 -13 -11 D KMA SNU 20 14 2 -13 -27 -39 -51 -67 -88 D ESSIC ICM 19 22 35 52 62-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 16 22 34 29 16 -1 -18 -31 -37 D COLA ANOM -23 -16 -11 -6 0 10 17 24 30 S CPC MRKOV -19 -22 -24 -26 -25 -23 -22 -20 -17 S CDC LIM 13 15 17 21 9 36 38 34 30 S CPC CA 18 20 21 20 25 30 38 38 35 S CPC CCA 20 17 15 12 1 -9 -20 -7 5 S CSU CLIPR -17 -36 -7 22 51 49 47 45 51 S UBC NNET 21 20 17 14 11 8 6 5 6 S FSU REGR -32 -42 -44 -37 -25 -14 -7 -3 -3 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Dec 2005 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON 0.01 Nov -0.13 -89 -98 -83 -52 -28 -9 3 12 27 D NASA GMAO -78 -85 -82 -77 -71 -62 -60 -63-999 D NCEP CFS -16 -4 14 42 59-999-999-999-999 D JMA 10 3 -5 -10 -3 11 26 40 51 D SCRIPPS -38 -32 -20 -10 -4 1 6 7 6 D LDEO -82 -66 -37 -11 6 22 39-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -22 -17 -12-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -73 -70 -61-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -44 -43 -37 -30 -21 -13 -11 -9 -6 D KMA SNU 6 -5 -19 -34 -47 -61 -78-101-128 D ESSIC ICM -24 -31 -26 -9 8-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -11 38 43 59 2 -9 -60 -71-110 D COLA ANOM -51 -43 -34 -24 -10 1 10 19 34 S CPC MRKOV -43 -45 -46 -48 -44 -41 -37 -33 -28 S CDC LIM -7 -4 6 19 32 40 42 40 42 S CPC CA -3 10 16 20 22 28 35 36 40 S CPC CCA -8 -12 -17 -21 -17 -13 -9 -12 -15 S CSU CLIPR -25 -31 -19 -6 6 24 41 59 59 S UBC NNET -11 -10 -7 -4 0 3 4 4 5 S FSU REGR -47 -48 -39 -24 -11 -2 2 3 1 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jan 2006 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND -0.20 Dec -0.58 -71 -66 -48 -17 15 46 69 73 72 D NASA GMAO -102 -96 -78 -65 -48 -41 -38 -32-999 D NCEP CFS -62 -44 -13 2 20-999-999-999-999 D JMA -20 -32 -37 -30 -13 6 22 34 42 D SCRIPPS -42 -25 -13 -5 4 14 18 21 22 D LDEO -134-121 -84 -46 -19 6 31-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -65 -50 -31-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -88 -65 -38-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -58 -50 -37 -25 -16 -9 -6 -2 1 DeKMA SNU -31 -42 -57 -71 -84 -99-121-147-168 D ESSIC ICM -53 -47 -28 -4 15-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -11 38 43 59 25 14 -37 -71-110 D COLA ANOM -77 -67 -55 -41 -30 -21 -14 -4 10 S CPC MRKOV -62 -62 -61 -60 -57 -53 -49 -45 -40 S CDC LIM -18 -3 14 32 45 49 48 50 58 S CPC CA -12 12 24 34 39 46 52 60 69 S CPC CCA -40 -39 -38 -37 -31 -26 -20 -23 -25 S CSU CLIPR -51 -47 -29 -10 8 22 36 50 54 S UBC NNET -47 -37 -27 -18 -10 -4 -3 -2 -1 S FSU REGR -42 -46 -29 -15 14 19 21 22 21 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Feb 2006 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ -0.54 Jan -0.87 -42 -14 19 52 77 94 108 119 127 D NASA GMAO -82 -80 -79 -59 -47 -41 -38 -29-999 D NCEP CFS -28 -5 4 21 36-999-999-999-999 D JMA -52 -52 -38 -17 3 19 32 43 51 D SCRIPPS -18 -5 8 26 46 58 65 71 76 D LDEO -131-104 -65 -27 6 32 59-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -13 10 29-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -69 -40 -17-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -72 -57 -37 -21 -12 -5 -1 5 9 D KMA SNU -49 -61 -72 -79 -86-100-118-131-141 D ESSIC ICM -53 -28 -7 2 7-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -33 -12 3 7 8 7 5 5 7 D COLA ANOM -94 -82 -69 -59 -52 -50 -45 -39 -28 S CPC MRKOV -62 -56 -50 -43 -38 -32 -27 -23 -20 S CDC LIM -23 -1 2 35 44 46 52 62 72 S CPC CA -15 2 13 24 29 34 41 52 66 S CPC CCA -48 -46 -44 -42 -59 -77 -94 -87 -81 S CSU CLIPR -64 -53 -40 -28 -15 1 18 34 34 S UBC NNET -56 -42 -29 -17 -7 -4 -1 0 2 S FSU REGR -44 -24 -10 -3 -2 -3 -5 -10 -15 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Mar 2006 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF -0.70 Feb -0.64 -41 -14 13 37 53 61 69 77 85 D NASA GMAO -80 -72 -56 -41 -34 -31 -23 -14-999 D NCEP CFS -32 -20 -3 21 47-999-999-999-999 D JMA -53 -35 -12 10 29 45 58 67 73 D SCRIPPS -17 -3 19 46 68 79 85 89 91 D LDEO -74 -50 -9 30 63 85-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -17 10 30-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -40 1 38-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -55 -31 -5 16 27 35 39 40 40 D KMA SNU -64 -75 -82 -87 -99-118-138-154-164 D ESSIC ICM -71 -62 -53 -47 -44-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -52 -24 3 21 23 20 22 38 68 D COLA ANOM -73 -63 -57 -55 -57 -58 -56 -50 -40 S CPC MRKOV -42 -30 -19 -8 -4 0 4 4 3 S CDC LIM -2 18 33 41 43 46 51 54 48 S CPC CA -8 -7 -7 -6 -3 1 6 15 23 S CPC CCA -17 -9 0 8 2 -3 -9 -9 -10 S CSU CLIPR -32 -16 -4 7 19 21 22 24 32 S UBC NNET -43 -34 -28 -23 -20 -19 -19 -19 -20 S FSU REGR -20 -6 1 4 2 -1 -7 -14 -20 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Apr 2006 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM -0.70 Mar -0.61 -17 11 37 61 83 100 115 125 123 D NASA GMAO -22 -21 -24 -30 -32 -20 -7 2-999 D NCEP CFS -6 17 38 52 62-999-999-999-999 D JMA -30 -10 10 29 45 58 67 72 74 D SCRIPPS -26 -6 19 39 50 54 55 58 61 D LDEO -34 -18 15 47 76 96 109-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 12 31 44-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -37 -14 5-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -34 -2 29 53 68 77 76 73 69 D KMA SNU -59 -66 -67 -70 -80 -94-104-105 -97 D ESSIC ICM -44 -30 -27 -25 -16-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -84 -66 -50 -45 -52 -51 -21 35 74 D COLA ANOM -68 -62 -58 -60 -60 -58 -51 -41 -28 S CPC MRKOV -34 -23 -12 -1 1 4 7 5 3 S CDC LIM 2 39 49 55 62 69 68 61 51 S CPC CA -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -4 -1 10 19 S CPC CCA -4 9 23 36 49 63 76 72 67 S CSU CLIPR -15 8 19 30 41 36 32 27 34 S UBC NNET -39 -29 -21 -17 -15 -14 -14 -14 -12 S FSU REGR -24 -10 -1 5 6 4 -3 -9 -12 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2006 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA -0.43 Apr -0.11 -9 3 14 18 20 26 43 55 60 D NASA GMAO 8 8 6 16 27 29 18 2-999 D NCEP CFS 11 24 35 41 52-999-999-999-999 D JMA -4 16 32 45 56 64 68 70 67 D SCRIPPS 10 41 67 87 99 104 106 104 98 D LDEO -54 -87 -95 -72 -47 -22 -1-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 29 36 40-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -1 7 12-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -4 25 51 68 77 80 75 72 70 D KMA SNU -56 -54 -55 -66 -80 -91 -93 -86 -74 D ESSIC ICM 6 23 27 28 19-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -31 -16 -5 -12 -25 -15 11 34 30 D COLA ANOM -50 -47 -48 -47 -44 -37 -27 -15 -7 S CPC MRKOV -26 -19 -12 -5 -4 -3 -1 -3 -4 S CDC LIM 36 50 56 62 67 63 57 48 39 S CPC CA -7 -2 4 12 18 26 32 36 37 S CPC CCA 0 -1 -1 -2 3 7 12 11 10 S CSU CLIPR -7 -5 4 14 23 27 30 34 42 S UBC NNET 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 4 6 S FSU REGR -10 2 8 11 9 5 0 -2 1 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jun 2006 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM -0.18 May 0.12 3 14 18 20 26 43 55 60 58 D NASA GMAO 39 46 50 58 61 51 37 26-999 D NCEP CFS 25 33 35 41 41-999-999-999-999 D JMA 28 43 55 65 72 75 75 71 63 D SCRIPPS 56 83 106 122 132 134 128 117 102 D LDEO -46 -58 -51 -41 -12 7 22-999-999 DeAUS/POAMA 21 22 25-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 46 62 59-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 46 75 96 106 105 99 92 88 82 D KMA SNU -29 -26 -32 -43 -51 -51 -48 -41 -31 D ESSIC ICM 17 14 10 23 41-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -16 -9 -13 -18 -11 10 25 20 12 D COLA ANOM -16 -15 -12 -6 3 12 21 25 26 S CPC MRKOV -21 -16 -12 -7 -6 -5 -3 -4 -5 S CDC LIM 47 52 55 59 56 50 40 31 22 S CPC CA -4 -1 4 10 16 22 28 35 37 S CPC CCA 5 18 30 43 37 30 24 20 16 S CSU CLIPR 18 21 26 31 36 50 65 79 88 S UBC NNET 29 28 30 32 38 40 42 39 35 S FSU REGR 12 23 28 30 25 17 10 6 7 SeUCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2006 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 0.15 Jun 0.38 39 49 58 64 73 76 68 52 33 D NASA GMAO 17 20 34 38 23 13 7 5-999 D NCEP CFS 21 24 30 32 38-999-999-999-999 D JMA 53 66 76 82 84 83 78 68 51 D SCRIPPS 27 26 29 33 36 40 44 47 46 D LDEO -39 -29 -7 10 23 37 46-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 42 48 63-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 78 80 77-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 70 89 98 97 90 85 80 76 68 D KMA SNU 7 2 -10 -19 -22 -23 -22 -19 -14 D ESSIC ICM 59 51 38 35 37-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 55 64 73 92 96 82 51 28 10 D COLA ANOM -7 -3 3 13 22 30 32 32 33 S CPC MRKOV -10 -10 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -14 -15 S CDC LIM 47 48 52 50 44 35 24 13 10 S CPC CA 7 13 21 30 37 41 43 46 49 S CPC CCA 29 54 79 104 90 77 63 54 44 S CSU CLIPR 42 44 52 59 67 79 92 104 108 S UBC NNET 51 57 63 74 78 78 69 57 44 S FSU REGR 34 44 49 49 41 30 20 15 13 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Aug 2006 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ 0.26 Jul 0.28 27 30 31 34 37 35 31 30 31 D NASA GMAO 51 59 62 57 46 43 39 31-999 D NCEP CFS 25 29 28 32 31-999-999-999-999 D JMA 62 70 74 76 75 71 63 48 34 D SCRIPPS 44 46 47 58 68 74 71 61 43 D LDEO 1 14 28 38 48 53 37-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 25 38 53-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 90 108 105-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 83 98 99 94 87 83 77 70 61 D KMA SNU 21 11 3 -1 -5 -8 -7 -5 -1 D ESSIC ICM 48 58 68 79 87-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 68 85 88 90 81 71 54 40 21 DeCOLA ANOM 28 36 46 54 58 56 51 47 46 S CPC MRKOV 4 0 -4 -8 -11 -13 -16 -17 -18 S CDC LIM 44 51 52 47 38 23 11 9 20 S CPC CA 25 34 45 55 62 62 56 52 68 S CPC CCA 28 52 75 99 84 68 53 40 28 S CSU CLIPR 43 50 60 69 79 90 101 112 116 S UBC NNET 42 50 65 72 77 67 55 47 40 S FSU REGR 26 29 26 23 19 20 23 29 34 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Sep 2006 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA 0.38 Aug 0.51 113 125 131 127 115 99 86 76 62 D NASA GMAO 98 122 138 152 155 146 126 96-999 D NCEP CFS 33 27 28 32 34-999-999-999-999 D JMA 73 78 78 77 73 66 51 36 25 D SCRIPPS 77 97 112 122 123 118 109 99 91 D LDEO 54 54 60 66 70 71 67-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 63 79 85-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 90 91 83-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 99 107 105 99 94 89 81 71 60 D KMA SNU 25 23 20 16 11 9 9 12 16 D ESSIC ICM 127 141 153 162 162-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 82 106 106 88 67 61 58 53 53 D COLA ANOM 71 82 89 90 83 73 63 59 52 S CPC MRKOV 32 29 26 22 18 14 10 7 4 S CDC LIM 57 58 51 40 25 14 16 28 43 S CPC CA 35 44 52 57 64 60 56 53 58 S CPC CCA 78 73 68 63 57 50 44 31 19 S CSU CLIPR 90 109 118 127 136 135 133 132 122 S UBC NNET 76 98 108 110 94 74 58 44 30 S FSU REGR 66 65 55 40 26 16 12 11 14 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Oct 2006 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS 0.50 Sep 0.72 116 131 131 122 110 98 89 75 56 D NASA GMAO 96 122 138 147 136 116 101 98-999 D NCEP CFS 59 57 50 42 34-999-999-999-999 D JMA 88 88 85 80 71 54 33 17 12 D SCRIPPS 88 99 106 110 110 109 107 105 104 D LDEO 54 67 80 88 91 92 87-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 106 110 105-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 137 143 139-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 93 93 90 87 83 78 69 60 50 D KMA SNU 54 60 58 53 49 49 53 61 71 D ESSIC ICM 118 129 128 120 91-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 125 129 116 85 59 39 23 17 11 D COLA ANOM 90 97 98 90 79 68 62 55 48 S CPC MRKOV 76 73 69 66 58 50 42 34 27 S CDC LIM 77 72 61 44 29 27 34 42 43 S CPC CA 55 61 64 62 61 58 62 61 62 S CPC CCA 95 90 85 80 72 65 57 46 35 S CSU CLIPR 114 135 142 149 156 137 119 100 88 S UBC NNET 118 124 121 101 76 51 26 4 -16 S FSU REGR 129 126 110 86 63 47 38 34 34 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Nov 2006 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO 0.69 Oct 0.85 85 95 92 89 84 84 80 74 59 D NASA GMAO 102 121 132 121 101 83 78 73-999 D NCEP CFS 83 76 63 48 41-999-999-999-999 D JMA 91 87 81 73 54 30 11 1 1 D SCRIPPS 94 105 111 114 116 116 115 115 116 D LDEO 71 64 62 71 83 89 88-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 121 111 89-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 149 148 135-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 94 93 92 90 86 80 69 61 52 D KMA SNU 71 72 66 61 59 61 65 72 84 D ESSIC ICM 150 160 143 105 59-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 118 117 102 75 49 25 5 -5 -9 D COLA ANOM 115 114 103 89 77 71 64 58 53 S CPC MRKOV 109 102 96 90 77 65 52 41 29 S CDC LIM 94 74 52 36 33 35 37 35 31 S CPC CA 85 91 86 73 63 63 69 67 59 S CPC CCA 92 78 63 49 40 31 22 2 -19 S CSU CLIPR 138 164 162 159 157 133 108 84 71 S UBC NNET 105 102 84 60 37 13 -9 -30 -44 S FSU REGR 151 156 151 141 129 119 114 114 122 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Dec 2006 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON 0.93 Nov 1.21 114 103 85 59 39 14 -8 -32 -50 D NASA GMAO 93 86 78 65 56 45 37 22-999 D NCEP CFS 83 64 50 45 47-999-999-999-999 D JMA 91 86 77 57 32 12 2 2 7 D SCRIPPS 91 84 82 88 93 96 97 100 105 D LDEO 95 82 78 77 76 69 55-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 103 80 59-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 142 126 110-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 94 90 87 82 76 69 59 50 41 D KMA SNU 85 81 69 57 46 34 28 31 39 D ESSIC ICM 155 139 118 95 69-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 115 104 82 57 37 23 17 12 7 D COLA ANOM 100 94 84 75 70 65 59 55 55 S CPC MRKOV 108 100 92 83 70 57 44 33 21 S CDC LIM 96 72 52 41 33 28 22 18 16 S CPC CA 72 78 69 61 54 53 54 52 51 S CPC CCA 106 79 53 26 28 31 33 22 12 S CSU CLIPR 139 148 146 145 143 124 105 86 72 S UBC NNET 119 97 70 47 23 1 -21 -35 -45 S FSU REGR 143 130 111 94 80 71 69 72 78 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jan 2007 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND 1.13 Dec 1.31 58 20 -15 -46 -67 -89-106-113-111 D NASA GMAO 35 23 18 11 12 2 -19 -30-999 D NCEP CFS 61 41 35 37 33-999-999-999-999 D JMA 92 82 61 36 14 4 2 8 19 D SCRIPPS 98 90 91 91 87 80 77 81 89 D LDEO 47 32 33 45 61 78 91-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 59 39 16-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 84 61 54-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 96 90 84 78 69 62 50 40 31 D KMA SNU 86 75 61 49 35 27 29 36 42 D ESSIC ICM 125 85 26 -24 -60-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 91 71 44 17 4 -9 -13 -27 -34 D COLA ANOM 66 55 46 42 36 31 25 24 26 S CPC MRKOV 115 98 81 63 47 31 15 4 -6 S CDC LIM 67 46 34 25 20 15 11 8 5 S CPC CA 66 63 57 59 54 50 44 46 48 S CPC CCA 90 74 59 43 37 32 26 29 31 S CSU CLIPR 122 117 105 92 80 65 51 36 29 S UBC NNET 92 65 43 19 -6 -33 -52 -64 -70 S FSU REGR 91 64 41 25 15 10 9 7 3 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Feb 2007 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ 1.08 Jan 0.74 -45 -72 -91 -92 -98-114-131-136-128 D NASA GMAO -27 -46 -52 -44 -51 -66 -73 -65-999 D NCEP CFS 29 18 11 8 0-999-999-999-999 D JMA 53 26 5 -4 -4 3 15 30 46 D SCRIPPS 69 65 63 55 41 29 26 27 22 D LDEO -30 -39 -34 -25 -13 0 9-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 46 33 15-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 42 35 38-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 60 55 50 45 38 31 21 14 6 D KMA SNU 95 84 70 53 45 52 66 79 92 D ESSIC ICM 49 17 -3 -11 -14-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 62 51 41 38 38 39 34 29 29 D COLA ANOM 27 22 21 18 15 10 10 12 17 S CPC MRKOV 78 61 44 27 14 1 -13 -20 -27 S CDC LIM 49 36 27 22 16 11 8 4 -5 S CPC CA 66 57 57 61 56 47 40 44 48 S CPC CCA 24 18 12 6 9 11 14 -3 -19 S CSU CLIPR 85 91 83 76 68 58 49 39 38 S UBC NNET 38 18 -7 -30 -52 -63 -76 -86 -98 S FSU REGR 40 32 30 31 33 36 38 37 31 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Mar 2007 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF 0.71 Feb 0.11 -91-109-124-132-144-157-159-149-136 D NASA GMAO -46 -58 -67 -92-126-128-102 -79-999 D NCEP CFS -18 -31 -42 -50 -51-999-999-999-999 D JMA 53 26 5 -4 -4 3 15 30 46 D SCRIPPS 13 -7 -35 -54 -67 -78 -94-106-109 D LDEO -52 -42 -24 -12 -1 8 19-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 6 -9 -20-999-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -59 -41 -23-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 9 11 11 10 7 5 2 -1 -7 D KMA SNU 97 84 67 58 60 68 76 85 95 D ESSIC ICM -30 -60 -80 -90 -84-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 9 16 19 16 7 -1 -9 -10 15 D COLA ANOM 30 16 -4-999-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -15 -16 -18 -21 -27 -30 -30 -26 -20 S CPC MRKOV 55 40 26 12 1 -9 -20 -25 -31 S CDC LIM 38 29 23 17 11 5 -2 -14 -20 S CPC CA 54 48 48 50 47 45 43 49 50 S CPC CCA -15 -26 -36 -47 -54 -61 -68 -70 -71 S CSU CLIPR 36 49 45 40 36 36 35 35 36 S UBC NNET -16 -35 -52 -65 -70 -79 -89-104-110 S FSU REGR 20 14 11 10 9 8 6 2 -3 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Apr 2007 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM 0.29 Mar 0.0 -163-208-220-224-209-191-162-137-108 D NASA GMAO -30 -62-110-139-136-105 -85 -76-999 D NCEP CFS -26 -38 -49 -59 -60-999-999-999-999 D JMA -21 -34 -33 -25 -16 -7 4 14 22 D SCRIPPS -29 -57 -79 -98-114-130-136-131-114 D LDEO -78 -83 -73 -62 -46 -27 -14-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -9 -11 -17 -36-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -75 -87-104-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -29 -27 -23 -19 -17 -12 -12 -13 -16 D KMA SNU -23 -24 -23 -24 -29 -34 -39 -42 -43 D ESSIC ICM -51 -82-117-136-131-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -61 -53 -45 -42 -46 -53 -52 -46 -43 D COLA ANOM 5 5 -4 -10-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -32 -42 -63 -85 -96 -94 -93 -98-107 D JPN-FRCGC -35 -35 -35 -39 -40 -38 -32 -24 -15 S CPC MRKOV 22 15 8 1 -5 -12 -18 -21 -25 S CDC LIM 33 35 36 34 32 29 24 22 20 S CPC CA 41 37 35 31 32 33 34 36 34 S CPC CCA -35 -45 -54 -64 -64 -63 -63 -59 -55 S CSU CLIPR 6 9 17 26 34 47 59 72 70 S UBC NNET -24 -32 -32 -29 -30 -34 -43 -47 -48 S FSU REGR 7 10 11 11 11 8 3 -2 -3 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2007 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA 0.08 Apr 0.10 -52 -72 -89-102-109-108-100 -87 -73 D NASA GMAO -61 -98-120-117 -93 -82 -80 -79-999 D NCEP CFS -35 -46 -57 -69 -70-999-999-999-999 D JMA -51 -51 -45 -38 -32 -24 -19 -14 -3 D SCRIPPS -46 -73 -97-112-129-134-125-103 -74 D LDEO -123-141-127-104 -82 -69 -59-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -4 -23 -53 -79-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -105-161-202-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -38 -35 -28 -22 -18 -14 -14 -14 -12 D KMA SNU -56 -63 -73 -89-107-120-124-119-109 D ESSIC ICM -35 -46 -61 -50 -23-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -83 -76 -65 -59 -70 -81 -65 -30 -5 D COLA ANOM -9 -3 4 2-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -18 -35 -47 -55 -54 -57 -64 -74 -80 D JPN-FRCGC -37 -37 -40 -41 -39 -32 -24 -15 -9 S CPC MRKOV 5 2 -1 -4 -8 -12 -16 -19 -22 S CDC LIM 24 28 27 25 25 22 18 15 11 S CPC CA 27 22 17 14 18 22 24 21 16 S CPC CCA -27 -36 -46 -55 -64 -74 -83 -71 -58 S CSU CLIPR -13 -24 -25 -27 -28 -13 2 17 21 S UBC NNET -25 -33 -33 -37 -42 -51 -55 -55 -50 S FSU REGR 14 15 16 16 13 7 0 -6 -8 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jun 2007 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM -0.02 May -0.19 -73-117-150-169-178-177-167-151-127 D NASA GMAO -71-124-141-112 -89 -75 -72 -71-999 D NCEP CFS -64 -89-102-104-102-999-999-999-999 D JMA -41 -32 -23 -13 -2 7 13 23 37 D SCRIPPS -56 -79 -93-107-111-104 -85 -56 -21 D LDEO -173-204-183-153-137-128-118-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -46 -78-100-107-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -154-177-170-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -44 -41 -38 -32 -30 -26 -25 -21 -17 D KMA SNU -41 -51 -64 -78 -88 -93 -91 -84 -78 D ESSIC ICM -82 -97 -83 -54 -38-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -82 -77 -78 -91 -81 -48 -9 -3 -14 D COLA ANOM -20 -24 -28 -42-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -62 -83 -85 -79 -79 -87 -99-104-103 D JPN-FRCGC -51 -54 -55 -53 -47 -37 -27 -18 -11 S CPC MRKOV -27 -26 -26 -25 -27 -28 -29 -30 -31 S CDC LIM 19 15 10 7 2 -4 -6 -8 -5 S CPC CA -10 -15 -20 -25 -28 -27 -23 -12 -4 S CPC CCA -37 -36 -36 -35 -42 -50 -57 -48 -38 S CSU CLIPR -37 -46 -48 -49 -51 -33 -15 3 13 S UBC NNET -33 -31 -32 -34 -40 -42 -44 -43 -39 S FSU REGR -24 -26 -31 -40 -52 -63 -67 -61 -45 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2007 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 0.00 Jun 0.09 -73 -87 -85 -83 -82 -78 -73 -63 -53 D NASA GMAO -98-113 -91 -78 -72 -70 -68 -56-999 D NCEP CFS -109-129-135-134-120-999-999-999-999 D JMA -10 4 16 28 38 46 56 67 76 D SCRIPPS -89-115-138-148-143-116 -78 -38 -4 D LDEO -131-125-108 -99 -93 -82 -71-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -101-128-129-121-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -200-236-239-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -38 -40 -37 -35 -34 -32 -30 -24 -21 D KMA SNU -48 -67 -85 -98-105-104-100 -98 -97 D ESSIC ICM -74 -67 -39 -18 -12-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -20 -25 -28 -2 32 47 30 13 -3 D COLA ANOM -11 -6 -8 -13-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -75 -89 -84 -85 -91-102-112-113-105 D JPN-FRCGC -61 -62 -61 -55 -46 -35 -26 -17 -8 S CPC MRKOV -40 -42 -44 -46 -47 -48 -48 -48 -47 S CDC LIM -1 -8 -13 -26 -38 -44 -43 -34 -17 S CPC CA -48 -51 -54 -57 -62 -56 -42 -12 8 S CPC CCA -31 -28 -25 -22 -23 -23 -24 -16 -8 S CSU CLIPR -18 -31 -28 -26 -23 -9 6 20 21 S UBC NNET 4 5 7 8 8 4 2 -1 -2 S FSU REGR -28 -39 -51 -64 -76 -81 -76 -61 -40 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Aug 2007 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ -0.14 Jul -0.29 -46 -61 -72 -76 -73 -66 -53 -38 -19 D NASA GMAO -97-108 -99 -98 -99 -97 -79 -59-999 D NCEP CFS -109-119-119-104 -87-999-999-999-999 D JMA 19 34 46 56 62 69 77 83 79 D SCRIPPS -80-100-109-108 -89 -59 -28 -4 19 D LDEO -105-103 -84 -73 -60 -42 -20-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -75 -82 -80 -76-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -177-170-153-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -32 -29 -25 -23 -21 -17 -13 -7 -2 D KMA SNU -80 -99-114-121-117-106 -99 -91 -85 D ESSIC ICM -116-105 -74 -64 -57-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -59 -58 -36 -1 24 16 -8 -25 -33 D COLA ANOM -52 -43 -42 -45-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -72 -67 -64 -63 -67 -69 -67 -63 -56 D JPN-FRCGC -67 -68 -65 -57 -47 -37 -28 -18 -5 S CPC MRKOV -49 -52 -56 -59 -60 -60 -61 -59 -57 S CDC LIM -30 -37 -54 -68 -75 -72 -59 -38 -11 S CPC CA -70 -73 -76 -72 -66 -52 -34 -8 12 S CPC CCA -44 -38 -31 -25 -20 -14 -9 -4 1 S CSU CLIPR -20 -16 -13 -11 -8 11 29 48 48 S UBC NNET -28 -30 -32 -31 -22 -18 -15 -16 -19 S FSU REGR -50 -52 -57 -61 -62 -54 -39 -19 -9 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Sep 2007 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA -0.24 Aug -0.50 -104-119-126-122-114-103 -86 -59 -28 D NASA GMAO -130-129-131-122-112 -94 -79 -61-999 D NCEP CFS -134-137-130-119 -86-999-999-999-999 D JMA 14 23 31 39 49 61 71 71 64 D SCRIPPS -77 -85 -85 -72 -49 -23 -6 8 25 D LDEO -134-134-126-114-104 -86 -67-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -78 -83 -83 -78-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -72 -77 -78-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -49 -47 -43 -40 -34 -26 -20 -12 -3 D KMA SNU -110-126-133-128-116-107-100 -92 -81 D ESSIC ICM -135-117 -93 -77 -61-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -37 -22 2 33 45 46 38 20 -1 D COLA ANOM -87 -79 -69 -59-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -76 -79 -80 -86 -92 -91 -85 -77 -69 D JPN-FRCGC -93 -91 -85 -75 -64 -52 -39 -22 -9 S CPC MRKOV -43 -45 -48 -50 -51 -51 -51 -49 -48 S CDC LIM -57 -80 -92 -97 -93 -77 -54 -25 -2 S CPC CA -98-111-110 -96 -68 -40 -20 1 25 S CPC CCA -43 -46 -48 -51 -36 -22 -7 -3 2 S CSU CLIPR -55 -57 -52 -47 -42 -22 -2 18 23 S UBC NNET -45 -45 -45 -37 -31 -25 -23 -25 -28 S FSU REGR -61 -65 -71 -72 -67 -53 -35 -18 -5 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Oct 2007 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS -0.54 Sep -0.83 -161-180-188-175-146-112 -73 -35 0 D NASA GMAO -178-170-168-165-149-123-100 -81-999 D NCEP CFS -180-170-156-117 -81-999-999-999-999 D JMA -8 -4 3 12 25 39 47 50 55 D SCRIPPS -77 -75 -60 -37 -15 -2 12 28 54 D LDEO -151-145-142-130-109 -76 -46-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -109-105 -95 -80-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -146-152-152-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -79 -83 -80 -74 -65 -53 -42 -31 -17 D KMA SNU -171-178-169-153-143-135-124-111-103 D ESSIC ICM -124-112-102 -83 -58-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -68 -52 -25 7 19 16 9 4 3 D COLA ANOM -113 -99 -85 -71-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -104-112-122-121-110 -95 -81 -69 -55 D JPN-FRCGC -120-113-100 -85 -70 -52 -32 -15 -1 S CPC MRKOV -56 -55 -53 -52 -52 -51 -51 -49 -48 S CDC LIM -123-135-136-127-104 -76 -47 -25 -9 S CPC CA -111-120-108 -82 -33 -3 19 37 61 S CPC CCA -63 -53 -44 -34 -19 -5 10 6 1 S CSU CLIPR -67 -59 -50 -40 -31 -7 16 40 46 S UBC NNET -91 -93 -82 -71 -55 -47 -41 -38 -39 S FSU REGR -86 -95 -97 -88 -68 -41 -15 4 17 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Nov 2007 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO -0.92 Oct -1.38 -161-166-161-139-110 -76 -41 -9 12 D NASA GMAO -190-213-220-209-189-159-136-121-999 D NCEP CFS -181-161-122 -86 -59-999-999-999-999 D JMA -59 -52 -38 -19 1 19 36 54 69 D SCRIPPS -89 -82 -59 -34 -17 0 19 46 62 D LDEO -180-177-160-127 -87 -44 -13-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -133-123-106 -82-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -167-158-140-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -111-106 -95 -81 -67 -51 -35 -19 -5 D KMA SNU -140-121 -95 -71 -51 -33 -23 -25 -32 D ESSIC ICM -166-159-137-112 -93-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -113-104 -69 -22 10 22 24 30 39 D COLA ANOM -133-118 -99 -80-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -149-150-144-131-113 -98 -91 -87 -84 D JPN-FRCGC -137-123-106 -87 -66 -44 -24 -9 6 S CPC MRKOV -72 -69 -66 -63 -60 -57 -54 -51 -48 S CDC LIM -155-155-144-115 -85 -54 -31 -16 -7 S CPC CA -120-114 -91 -59 -15 14 44 63 82 S CPC CCA -152-127-102 -77 -57 -36 -16 -37 -57 S CSU CLIPR -97 -77 -63 -50 -36 -11 15 40 48 S UBC NNET -143-131-115 -92 -74 -58 -47 -44 -53 S FSU REGR -147-142-122 -89 -51 -14 15 33 44 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Dec 2007 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON -1.23 Nov -1.45 -182-183-171-149-121 -93 -65 -47 -36 D NASA GMAO -187-232-250-238-198-170-149-125-999 D NCEP CFS -180-147-113 -85 -64-999-999-999-999 D JMA -98 -97 -85 -64 -39 -14 8 25 37 D SCRIPPS -138-117 -91 -69 -44 -16 15 30 35 D LDEO -168-172-171-153-124 -91 -57-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -127-106 -82 -60-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -218-229-216-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -129-118-102 -87 -68 -46 -29 -12 1 D KMA SNU -128-100 -75 -54 -34 -24 -24 -30 -30 D ESSIC ICM -189-160-113 -76 -52-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -109 -88 -64 -43 -35 -37 -45 -46 -44 D COLA ANOM -159-142-123-105-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -167-169-165-161-158-154-151-147-142 D JPN-FRCGC -147-129-109 -87 -64 -44 -29 -15 3 S CPC MRKOV -108-105-101 -99 -92 -85 -78 -70 -63 S CDC LIM -163-154-123 -91 -58 -31 -17 -1 -9 S CPC CA -121 -88 -52 -26 6 36 73 88 111 S CPC CCA -121-100 -78 -57 -55 -52 -50 -66 -83 S CSU CLIPR -98 -75 -55 -35 -15 2 20 37 47 S UBC NNET -141-126-104 -85 -69 -57 -51 -53 -57 S FSU REGR -126-116 -96 -69 -43 -25 -17 -15 -18 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jan 2008 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND -1.44 Dec -1.50 -182-178-161-142-118 -95 -75 -59 -47 D NASA GMAO -201-197-183-169-147-135-130-131-999 D NCEP CFS -165-131 -91 -65 -44-999-999-999-999 D JMA -122-112 -93 -69 -43 -19 -1 9 14 D SCRIPPS -105 -88 -78 -66 -54 -37 -33 -33 -41 D LDEO -153-139-128-115-103 -86 -69-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -127-106 -84 -69-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -164-178-162-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -117-102 -86 -66 -45 -25 -12 1 14 D KMA SNU -101 -78 -55 -33 -20 -18 -21 -21 -20 D ESSIC ICM -153-137-110 -81 -51-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -113 -87 -55 -36 -25 -35 -45 -62 -66 D COLA ANOM -141-135-122-105-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -173-173-164-144-127-110 -99 -92 -87 D JPN-FRCGC -145-126-106 -86 -69 -57 -49 -39 -26 S CPC MRKOV -116-113-110-107 -99 -91 -83 -73 -64 S CDC LIM -156-121 -85 -47 -19 -2 4 7 18 S CPC CA -100 -45 -11 13 38 67 97 117 140 S CPC CCA -102 -93 -85 -76 -76 -77 -77 -88 -98 S CSU CLIPR -126-114 -93 -72 -51 -26 -2 23 31 S UBC NNET -132-110 -90 -74 -64 -61 -68 -73 -76 S FSU REGR -114-106 -94 -83 -77 -78 -86 -98-110 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Feb 2008 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ -1.59 Jan -1.81 -141-104 -75 -50 -31 -23 -22 -23 -20 D NASA GMAO -148-132-125-123-120-117-116-118-999 D NCEP CFS -143-102 -76 -59 -39-999-999-999-999 D JMA -113 -82 -52 -26 -8 2 7 7 1 D SCRIPPS -117-107 -95 -83 -71 -73 -77 -85 -88 D LDEO -160-143-137-129-111 -88 -64-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -109 -83 -67 -54-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -236-218-196-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -109 -88 -64 -40 -20 -4 6 19 31 D KMA SNU -97 -73 -50 -35 -30 -32 -32 -32 -32 D ESSIC ICM -165-154-137-122-107-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -127-106 -87 -81 -93-111-118-117-115 D COLA ANOM -150-125-110 -88-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -178-162-138-117-100 -86 -81 -79 -79 D JPN-FRCGC -152-132-113 -98 -89 -87 -84 -78 -68 S CPC MRKOV -124-121-119-117-109-100 -92 -82 -72 S CDC LIM -114 -85 -57 -36 -27 -25 -30 -28 -28 S CPC CA -69 -22 9 39 63 88 119 141 168 S CPC CCA -116-101 -85 -70 -83 -95-108-110-112 S CSU CLIPR -130-104 -80 -56 -32 -23 -14 -5 -1 S UBC NNET -123-100 -79 -63 -54 -56 -61 -65 -67 S FSU REGR -158-142-123-109-105-111-125-144-161 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Mar 2008 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF -1.74 Feb -1.90 -119 -91 -62 -39 -31 -28 -28 -21 -11 D NASA GMAO -121-119-109 -92 -81 -80 -81 -83-999 D NCEP CFS -126-101 -81 -59 -44-999-999-999-999 D JMA -115 -83 -52 -25 -7 4 9 9 3 D SCRIPPS -142-136-133-124-125-130-140-143-137 D LDEO -105 -96 -90 -79 -64 -48 -35-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -100 -82 -69 -59-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -147-122-100-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -98 -67 -39 -15 0 11 19 30 39 D KMA SNU -68 -45 -28 -21 -21 -21 -21 -20 -16 D ESSIC ICM -99-115-127-124-114-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -140-109 -91 -88 -97-105-106 -95 -62 D COLA ANOM -135-119 -85 -49-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -113 -89 -64 -43 -32 -31 -38 -42 -45 D JPN-FRCGC -146-130-119-114-117-122-126-122-111 S CPC MRKOV -116-112-107-102 -96 -89 -82 -75 -68 S CDC LIM -97 -78 -63 -54 -51 -56 -61 -68 -72 S CPC CA -27 -31 -39 -48 -51 -55 -59 -59 -52 S CPC CCA -73 -37 -2 34 31 27 24 24 25 S CSU CLIPR -129 -99 -82 -65 -48 -50 -53 -55 -39 S UBC NNET -122 -95 -75 -64 -62 -59 -57 -52 -49 S FSU REGR -128-100 -77 -63 -59 -62 -71 -80 -84 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Apr 2008 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM -1.60 Mar -1.14 -60 -30 -1 18 29 33 41 55 64 D NASA GMAO -105 -89 -81 -72 -63 -57 -53 -50-999 D NCEP CFS -78 -59 -46 -40 -35-999-999-999-999 D JMA -115 -83 -52 -25 -7 4 9 9 3 D SCRIPPS -118-122-118-116-119-130-137-134-118 D LDEO -66 -52 -39 -26 -9 5-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -85 -74 -64 -55-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -136-120 -99-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -59 -27 2 22 32 42 48 56 60 D KMA SNU -38 -20 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -6 0 D ESSIC ICM -66 -54 -44 -35 -40-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -111 -92 -77 -73 -78 -92 -85 -34 23 D COLA ANOM -81 -56 -24 2-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -105 -81 -57 -46 -45 -46 -46 -44 -44 D JPN-FRCGC -12 58 71 104 122 127 132 134 135 D COLA CCSM3 -112-103-101-106-112-117-114-105 -89 S CPC MRKOV -92 -86 -79 -73 -69 -66 -62 -59 -56 S CDC LIM -74 -62 -52 -44 -48 -54 -66 -72 -74 S CPC CA -31 -39 -48 -55 -58 -60 -63 -60 -51 S CPC CCA -4 36 76 116 138 159 181 167 154 S CSU CLIPR -73 -52 -39 -27 -14 -22 -30 -38 -23 S UBC NNET -68 -50 -38 -34 -31 -31 -29 -28 -23 S FSU REGR -33 -5 7 8 -1 -15 -30 -41 -44 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2008 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA -1.26 Apr -0.85 -46 -19 0 10 15 23 37 46 48 D NASA GMAO -32 20 51 61 53 50 48 31-999 D NCEP CFS -43 -36 -38 -43 -46-999-999-999-999 D JMA -24 -6 9 18 20 14 5 -2 -4 D SCRIPPS -44 -14 11 26 29 23 14 8 11 D LDEO -21 2 19 30 40 51-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -59 -45 -30 -16-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -77 -63 -55-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -38 -3 25 41 51 61 68 74 76 D KMA SNU -32 -24 -24 -26 -28 -28 -23 -15 -5 D ESSIC ICM -42 -23 -14 -14 -17-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -73 -54 -39 -37 -45 -46 -37 -21 -13 D COLA ANOM -41 -26 -13 -10-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -70 -67 -70 -74 -71 -64 -58 -65 -83 D JPN-FRCGC -91 -54 -32 -17 -6 6 19 36 57 D COLA CCSM3 -90 -89 -94-101-107-105 -97 -82 -66 S CPC MRKOV -44 -41 -38 -35 -37 -38 -39 -41 -43 S CDC LIM -68 -55 -45 -48 -59 -78 -88 -93 -83 S CPC CA -26 -34 -40 -46 -47 -48 -44 -38 -30 S CPC CCA -34 -37 -40 -43 -41 -40 -38 -30 -22 S CSU CLIPR -34 -9 5 19 33 16 0 -17 -4 S UBC NNET -32 -17 -13 -10 -9 -5 -3 5 11 S FSU REGR -40 -41 -49 -63 -81 -99-109-107 -91 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jun 2008 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM -0.84 May -0.59 6 41 61 68 69 73 70 56 21 D NASA GMAO 21 45 52 41 26 7 -13 -21-999 D NCEP CFS -28 -28 -34 -40 -46-999-999-999-999 D JMA -23 -5 10 21 23 17 9 2 -1 D SCRIPPS -35 -17 -14 -28 -55 -77 -79 -61 -35 D LDEO 16 39 47 53 58 66-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -7 14 29 34-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 42 73 85-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -3 31 55 69 76 84 87 90 88 D KMA SNU -7 -6 -7 -9 -10 -6 -1 4 8 D ESSIC ICM -20 5 17 27 39-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -48 -25 -23 -24 -17 -2 1 -8 -19 D COLA ANOM -54 -50 -46 -38-999-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -27 -24 -23 -22 -17 -18 -23 -38 -47 D JPN-FRCGC -74 -43 -18 1 11 12 16 24 35 D COLA CCSM3 -59 -64 -68 -71 -68 -60 -48 -37 -27 S CPC MRKOV -35 -37 -39 -41 -46 -50 -55 -57 -60 S CDC LIM -41 -30 -35 -49 -72 -87 -95 -87 -75 S CPC CA -37 -40 -44 -47 -48 -44 -37 -31 -23 S CPC CCA -11 -16 -20 -25 -8 10 27 19 12 S CSU CLIPR -11 13 21 28 36 29 21 14 17 S UBC NNET -9 -3 0 0 4 6 11 15 18 S FSU REGR 6 12 12 5 -8 -23 -32 -33 -25 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2008 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ -0.58 Jun -0.31 30 55 70 75 72 61 46 25 -5 D NASA GMAO 23 27 22 13 -3 -22 -31 -32-999 D NCEP CFS -20 -19 -17 -18 -15-999-999-999-999 D JMA -6 9 19 22 16 8 1 -2 -7 D SCRIPPS 26 45 58 67 72 71 61 43 24 D LDEO 27 39 40 43 48 54-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 22 39 50 52-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 89 94 76-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 11 36 55 67 72 78 80 82 77 D KMA SNU -8 -11 -15 -16 -13 -7 -1 3 10 D ESSIC ICM 19 16 -5 -12 0-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 15 28 21 24 31 32 15 -7 -29 D COLA ANOM -14 1 4 6 7-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -32 -33 -28 -28 -31 -36 -42 -46 -43 D JPN-FRCGC 26 47 60 67 68 60 47 26 8 D COLA CCSM3 -46 -50 -53 -50 -43 -33 -24 -17 -10 S CPC MRKOV -35 -38 -42 -45 -49 -54 -58 -59 -61 S CDC LIM -28 -35 -50 -73 -92-102 -95 -81 -71 S CPC CA -38 -41 -43 -46 -44 -39 -32 -25 -21 S CPC CCA 32 31 29 28 24 20 16 8 -1 S CSU CLIPR -2 12 17 21 26 26 25 25 25 S UBC NNET -7 -2 -1 4 7 15 17 19 22 S FSU REGR 14 17 13 3 -11 -22 -25 -20 -8 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Aug 2008 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ -0.26 Jul 0.12 59 73 80 79 73 61 50 36 25 D NASA GMAO -2 -17 -26 -33 -49 -52 -47 -31-999 D NCEP CFS -40 -40 -38 -34 -28-999-999-999-999 D JMA 26 29 23 14 6 1 -6 -9 -6 D SCRIPPS 5 5 7 12 17 19 15 11 3 D LDEO 19 29 31 34 39 47-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 27 32 32 27-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 27 9 -11-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 12 32 49 59 63 69 70 67 60 D KMA SNU -3 -9 -11 -10 -5 -2 1 5 14 D ESSIC ICM 67 78 78 73 66-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 69 63 61 62 59 41 18 -4 -26 D COLA ANOM -19 -23 -24 -24 -21-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 11 8 -3 -11 -22 -32 -43 -45 -43 D JPN-FRCGC 94 109 120 129 123 97 55 7 -38 D COLA CCSM3 -32 -36 -35 -30 -23 -17 -13 -10 -5 S CPC MRKOV 0 -3 -6 -9 -14 -19 -23 -26 -29 S CDC LIM -19 -28 -41 -55 -66 -62 -51 -43 -35 S CPC CA -41 -44 -47 -46 -41 -34 -26 -25 -27 S CPC CCA 11 23 34 46 38 30 22 17 13 S CSU CLIPR 24 30 35 39 44 48 52 56 52 S UBC NNET 27 34 48 55 65 58 47 36 25 S FSU REGR 27 24 11 -4 -16 -19 -14 -3 8 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Sep 2008 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA -0.01 Aug 0.18 37 62 79 88 86 79 76 81 88 D NASA GMAO -32 -43 -50 -66 -66 -55 -40-999-999 D NCEP CFS -52 -52 -51 -43 -26-999-999-999-999 D JMA 29 31 25 17 8 1 -8 -12 -9 D SCRIPPS 4 -3 -2 1 4 3 2 1 5 D LDEO 12 19 21 27 38 47-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 30 33 29 26-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 19 -3 -23-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 23 41 56 64 69 72 67 60 54 D KMA SNU -17 -20 -16 -10 -6 -5 -2 6 15 D ESSIC ICM 108 91 83 79 66-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 72 83 79 72 62 56 45 30 16 D COLA ANOM -3 -3 1 6 10-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -1 -2 -5 -10 -15 -24 -32 -36 -36 D JPN-FRCGC 134 151 166 173 153 109 45 -25 -85 D COLA CCSM3 -31 -31 -28 -22 -18 -15 -12 -9 -8 S CPC MRKOV -1 -5 -9 -13 -16 -20 -23 -25 -27 S CDC LIM 9 1 -9 -20 -24 -26 -27 -20 -5 S CPC CA -43 -46 -44 -39 -33 -26 -22 -24 -31 S CPC CCA -5 3 11 19 14 8 3 4 5 S CSU CLIPR 25 29 31 34 36 31 25 20 15 S UBC NNET 34 48 53 56 48 36 24 12 0 S FSU REGR 27 18 4 -10 -19 -22 -20 -16 -13 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Oct 2008 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS 0.03 Sep -0.16 16 28 25 23 28 38 58 74 85 D NASA GMAO -55 -67 -79 -76 -64 -52 -41-999-999 D NCEP CFS -57 -51 -47 -34 -19-999-999-999-999 D JMA 18 13 6 -2 -6 -12 -12 -7 6 D SCRIPPS -31 -28 -18 -7 -3 -1 2 8 15 D LDEO -8 2 12 26 40 51-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -8 -12 -11 -5-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -45 -66 -68-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -2 13 26 35 41 42 38 32 29 D KMA SNU -23 -17 -9 -5 -2 1 9 19 28 D ESSIC ICM -56 -74 -83 -80 -77-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -68 -52 -25 7 19 16 9 4 3 D COLA ANOM -21 -18 -11 -6 -1-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -49 -66 -74 -73 -70 -65 -60 -52 -42 D JPN-FRCGC 115 136 148 146 131 107 77 43 1 D COLA CCSM3 -61 -57 -49 -42 -35 -29 -21 -17 -16 S CPC MRKOV -5 -10 -15 -20 -23 -26 -30 -31 -32 S CDC LIM 10 2 -8 -15 -22 -29 -26 -14 -5 S CPC CA -43 -41 -37 -32 -27 -24 -25 -31 -38 S CPC CCA -19 -26 -34 -41 -43 -44 -46 -29 -12 S CSU CLIPR 5 15 19 24 28 22 15 9 9 S UBC NNET -9 -9 -5 -6 -6 -11 -17 -24 -31 S FSU REGR -17 -38 -52 -57 -53 -42 -30 -22 -21 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Nov 2008 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO -0.11 Oct -0.26 14 14 10 14 23 44 67 87 91 D NASA GMAO -61 -98-119-124-114 -96 -74-999-999 D NCEP CFS -71 -65 -56 -47 -32-999-999-999-999 D JMA -8 -14 -20 -21 -22 -19 -10 4 21 D SCRIPPS -50 -40 -23 -13 -9 -8 -8 -9 -8 D LDEO -14 -3 11 24 34 44-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -11 -14 -13 -5-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -46 -46 -30-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -16 -4 7 15 19 22 17 14 15 D KMA SNU -21 -13 -8 -7 -4 3 11 17 20 D ESSIC ICM -60 -69 -62 -47 -31-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -11 -22 -11 13 29 33 33 30 25 D COLA ANOM -31 -28 -26 -24 -15-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -85-104-115-120-115-105 -94 -85 -79 D JPN-FRCGC 89 101 102 107 114 113 105 89 71 D COLA CCSM3 -63 -56 -50 -43 -36 -27 -20 -17 -16 S CPC MRKOV -24 -32 -40 -48 -52 -55 -58 -58 -57 S CDC LIM -24 -35 -40 -43 -45 -40 -29 -22 -23 S CPC CA -43 -39 -34 -27 -27 -30 -37 -44 -49 S CPC CCA -27 -22 -18 -13 -21 -28 -36 -4 29 S CSU CLIPR -21 -19 -18 -18 -17 -20 -22 -25 -30 S UBC NNET -26 -23 -22 -21 -24 -29 -33 -40 -47 S FSU REGR -61 -75 -78 -34 -18 -2 -26 -21 -4 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Dec 2008 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON -0.21 Nov -0.18 -27 -17 -8 3 21 41 60 67 67 D NASA GMAO -137-162-155-138-115 -86 -69-999-999 D NCEP CFS -83 -71 -56 -38 -21-999-999-999-999 D JMA -35 -42 -43 -43 -36 -24 -6 11 26 D SCRIPPS -31 -18 -9 -4 -2 -1 -4 -4 -3 D LDEO -37 -25 -9 7 22 37-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -44 -39 -26 -10-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -106-114 -97-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -42 -32 -21 -12 -6 -2 -4 -2 2 D KMA SNU -20 -11 -8 -3 5 14 20 22 19 D ESSIC ICM -58 -57 -48 -37 -27-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -15 -17 -12 -3 0 1 7 14 24 D COLA ANOM -55 -50 -40 -26 -12-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -96-113-119-114-103 -92 -83 -79 -74 D JPN-FRCGC 72 85 80 77 92 112 123 128 129 D COLA CCSM3 -70 -61 -52 -43 -33 -27 -24 -25 -24 S CPC MRKOV -42 -49 -57 -65 -67 -68 -69 -67 -64 S CDC LIM -51 -54 -52 -50 -44 -32 -25 -27 -37 S CPC CA -37 -30 -22 -19 -21 -26 -32 -35 -39 S CPC CCA -15 -21 -28 -34 -15 4 23 35 47 S CSU CLIPR -43 -55 -53 -52 -50 -52 -55 -57 -59 S UBC NNET -24 -25 -26 -33 -45 -56 -66 -71 -82 S FSU REGR -64 -64 -54 -36 -19 -6 1 2 0 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jan 2009 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND -0.40 Dec -0.73 -62 -25 15 51 82 105 119 125 129 D NASA GMAO -70 -46 -36 -34 -22 -8 3-999-999 D NCEP CFS -106 -83 -60 -41 -14-999-999-999-999 D JMA -69 -70 -68 -58 -42 -21 -2 14 27 D SCRIPPS -28 -19 -13 -8 -3 -4 -4 -1 3 D LDEO -64 -36 -14 6 25 45-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -50 -25 -5 14-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -127-111 -91-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -59 -44 -31 -19 -12 -7 -5 1 8 D KMA SNU -54 -55 -55 -47 -36 -31 -33 -38 -43 D ESSIC ICM -65 -58 -51 -35 -15-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -37 -29 -17 -8 6 8 10 -9 -13 D COLA ANOM -91 -67 -47 -29 -9-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -109-101 -81 -57 -39 -25 -16 -9 -5 D JPN-FRCGC -1 12 22 35 49 66 81 87 90 D COLA CCSM3 -89 -76 -63 -50 -40 -35 -34 -30 -24 S CPC MRKOV -66 -66 -66 -65 -62 -59 -55 -51 -47 S CDC LIM -55 -47 -38 -27 -16 -10 -12 -19 -22 S CPC CA -24 -19 -15 -15 -19 -24 -28 -30 -31 S CPC CCA -48 -42 -35 -29 -16 -3 10 13 16 S CSU CLIPR -69 -67 -55 -42 -30 -34 -39 -43 -36 S UBC NNET -68 -63 -62 -66 -72 -78 -83 -91-100 S FSU REGR -69 -49 -23 0 16 22 22 18 12 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Feb 2009 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ -0.65 Jan -0.99 -32 10 52 90 119 133 138 139 141 D NASA GMAO -31 -11 10 38 60 71 84-999-999 D NCEP CFS -91 -72 -57 -31 -4-999-999-999-999 D JMA -88 -83 -71 -53 -31 -11 5 17 29 D SCRIPPS -42 -27 -15 -4 4 12 19 23 22 D LDEO -22 9 31 51 68 85-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -48 -16 8 32-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -93 -60 -20-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -53 -33 -14 0 8 15 20 27 34 D KMA SNU -59 -58 -50 -38 -31 -31 -36 -42 -46 D ESSIC ICM -48 -20 11 34 54-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -40 -23 -12 -9 -12 -24 -33 -33 -12 D COLA ANOM -50 -23 -5 7 17-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -95 -88 -67 -45 -27 -12 -1 11 21 D JPN-FRCGC -13 9 31 45 53 53 54 53 54 D COLA CCSM3 -96 -81 -66 -55 -48 -46 -42 -36 -26 S CPC MRKOV -65 -60 -55 -50 -44 -38 -32 -28 -24 S CDC LIM -45 -34 -26 -18 -16 -20 -26 -30 -29 S CPC CA -18 -16 -17 -20 -23 -25 -29 -31 -33 S CPC CCA -50 -51 -52 -53 -40 -26 -13 -38 -63 S CSU CLIPR -72 -74 -64 -54 -44 -50 -55 -61 -46 S UBC NNET -73 -67 -64 -64 -66 -69 -76 -83 -92 S FSU REGR -52 -23 5 25 33 30 23 14 4 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Mar 2009 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF -0.80 Feb -0.69 19 77 130 178 212 230 233 230 223 D NASA GMAO -25 -17 3 21 28 33 41-999-999 D NCEP CFS -40 -19 4 21 27-999-999-999-999 D JMA -84 -72 -53 -31 -10 8 24 38 48 D SCRIPPS -37 -21 -8 -1 3 7 11 12 12 D LDEO -26 4 31 54 76 97-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -18 3 21 40-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -74 -40 -5-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -45 -22 0 13 21 29 35 41 45 D KMA SNU -45 -34 -20 -10 -6 -8 -11 -14 -14 D ESSIC ICM -5 8 29 38 32-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -37 -20 -8 5 12 21 30 48 77 D COLA ANOM -38 -19 3 23 38-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -83 -80 -69 -64 -67 -70 -65 -58 -50 D JPN-FRCGC -10 40 89 125 140 144 147 149 146 D COLA CCSM3 -89 -77 -69 -65 -67 -68 -67 -60 -49 S CPC MRKOV -67 -59 -52 -44 -37 -30 -24 -20 -15 S CDC LIM -37 -29 -21 -23 -27 -31 -29 -23 -24 S CPC CA -16 -17 -20 -23 -25 -29 -31 -33 -32 S CPC CCA -47 -43 -40 -36 -44 -51 -59 -61 -64 S CSU CLIPR -64 -61 -56 -52 -47 -48 -49 -50 -42 S UBC NNET -54 -51 -52 -57 -61 -66 -69 -72 -71 S FSU REGR -30 -9 5 11 8 1 -8 -17 -24 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Apr 2009 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM -0.72 Mar -0.55 18 71 115 144 160 163 163 162 153 D NASA GMAO -4 20 36 41 50 63 76-999-999 D NCEP CFS -2 18 31 37 40-999-999-999-999 D JMA -73 -55 -34 -12 6 22 35 45 55 D SCRIPPS -38 -38 -44 -48 -48 -47 -51 -50 -44 D LDEO 4 31 55 80 103 122-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 0 18 42 69-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -52 -23 8-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -23 1 19 32 43 53 57 59 60 D KMA SNU -5 10 21 28 31 31 29 26 21 D ESSIC ICM 17 32 34 24 11-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -46 -27 -10 0 6 20 48 87 108 D COLA ANOM -42 -20 3 23 35-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -42 -21 -6 -7 -14 -18 -13 -5 7 D JPN-FRCGC -14 31 71 90 94 93 97 110 120 D COLA CCSM3 -65 -57 -53 -53 -52 -49 -41 -30 -17 S CPC MRKOV -71 -64 -58 -51 -46 -40 -35 -31 -28 S CDC LIM -36 -27 -28 -28 -27 -20 -9 -9 -8 S CPC CA -43 -35 -28 -18 -15 -9 -3 5 12 S CPC CCA -30 -23 -16 -9 -10 -11 -12 -11 -11 S CSU CLIPR -31 -19 -8 2 13 7 1 -5 -8 S UBC NNET -45 -42 -41 -42 -44 -48 -52 -53 -48 S FSU REGR -19 -8 -3 -3 -8 -14 -21 -25 -27 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2009 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA -0.44 Apr -0.18 70 122 163 188 201 206 208 196 164 D NASA GMAO 50 70 84 106 127 147 152-999-999 D NCEP CFS 34 45 46 48 59-999-999-999-999 D JMA -14 2 19 35 49 60 68 78 88 D SCRIPPS -12 -8 -4 1 5 3 3 6 8 D LDEO 65 96 121 143 161 179-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 20 40 60 79-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 9 18 16-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 7 28 48 65 77 83 81 79 77 D KMA SNU 49 63 73 79 81 78 69 56 39 D ESSIC ICM 30 50 59 64 66-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 7 26 35 38 48 69 80 74 56 D COLA ANOM 14 30 45 50 52-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 5 17 16 6 1 4 11 18 24 D JPN-FRCGC 28 72 97 109 126 146 164 172 169 D COLA CCSM3 -32 -30 -32 -32 -30 -24 -15 -6 1 S CPC MRKOV -46 -45 -43 -42 -39 -35 -32 -30 -27 S CDC LIM -8 -6 -6 -1 10 25 29 29 23 S CPC CA -20 -23 -24 -24 -16 -6 5 11 15 S CPC CCA -4 -6 -8 -10 -17 -24 -31 -26 -21 S CSU CLIPR 6 18 22 25 29 12 -4 -21 -26 S UBC NNET 6 6 6 9 10 14 17 20 22 S FSU REGR 17 28 32 31 23 10 -8 -26 -36 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jun 2009 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM -0.13 May 0.27 96 135 157 168 171 176 172 152 107 D NASA GMAO 106 128 145 162 189 211 202-999-999 D NCEP CFS 79 97 114 136 164-999-999-999-999 D JMA 11 26 41 59 73 81 85 87 87 D SCRIPPS 28 34 42 48 49 50 49 44 36 D LDEO 106 133 146 159 174 182-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 83 101 119 132-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 44 52 46-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 32 51 71 86 92 93 89 88 84 D KMA SNU 72 83 89 91 88 79 63 44 27 D ESSIC ICM 49 64 73 80 89-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 40 55 66 83 101 102 84 64 60 D COLA ANOM 42 60 71 73 73-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 74 88 89 90 97 105 111 108 99 D JPN-FRCGC 50 77 88 93 101 104 94 78 70 D COLA CCSM3 -2 -3 0 4 12 21 28 30 30 S CPC MRKOV -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16 -17 -18 -19 S CDC LIM 19 26 36 53 73 76 69 53 38 S CPC CA 6 5 5 6 13 19 24 28 27 S CPC CCA 50 58 66 74 75 75 76 56 37 S CSU CLIPR 64 82 83 84 85 63 42 20 17 S UBC NNET 38 40 46 49 51 49 45 37 25 S FSU REGR 77 94 106 112 108 93 72 50 32 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2009 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 0.24 Jun 0.62 157 191 208 215 218 212 186 138 74 D NASA GMAO 108 131 159 188 201 189 172-999-999 D NCEP CFS 94 106 121 143 165-999-999-999-999 D JMA 60 77 93 103 105 102 97 86 68 D SCRIPPS 48 53 63 71 76 74 67 56 44 D LDEO 131 148 156 165 174 173-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 96 109 120 131-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 116 116 112-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 77 99 115 121 117 112 106 100 89 D KMA SNU 110 116 118 113 99 77 52 29 10 D ESSIC ICM 111 132 153 176 188-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 110 130 149 153 134 95 68 57 45 D COLA ANOM 46 58 63 64 71-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 121 120 118 122 126 123 115 103 90 D JPN-FRCGC 145 163 171 180 192 194 181 159 131 D COLA CCSM3 23 28 36 45 54 59 58 53 49 S CPC MRKOV 31 25 20 14 8 2 -5 -9 -14 S CDC LIM 59 73 95 120 126 112 85 55 33 S CPC CA 10 12 15 21 31 37 38 32 28 S CPC CCA 37 70 102 135 123 110 98 86 74 S CSU CLIPR 95 111 107 103 99 75 52 28 20 S UBC NNET 72 77 83 94 99 98 87 72 53 S FSU REGR 124 147 164 169 159 135 104 75 53 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Aug 2009 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ 0.59 Jul 0.88 139 155 161 158 152 139 121 101 84 D NASA GMAO 107 131 153 165 155 141 120-999-999 D NCEP CFS 77 93 114 133 141-999-999-999-999 D JMA 105 122 128 126 120 109 93 66 36 D SCRIPPS 74 79 81 77 70 65 62 64 69 D LDEO 126 154 164 173 175 164-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 131 145 159 167-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 116 129 144-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 99 115 121 118 112 107 100 89 75 D KMA SNU 93 92 87 74 58 40 25 12 2 D ESSIC ICM 149 166 179 181 163-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 109 125 138 125 85 47 29 18 14 D COLA ANOM 58 62 63 68 80-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 126 131 130 133 128 119 103 91 73 D JPN-FRCGC 170 184 201 218 221 192 146 97 60 D COLA CCSM3 39 48 58 66 70 67 61 54 51 S CPC MRKOV 57 49 40 32 22 11 1 -6 -13 S CDC LIM 91 117 145 151 136 105 71 47 25 S CPC CA 64 77 91 93 72 51 34 32 36 S CPC CCA 96 128 159 191 158 126 93 83 72 S CSU CLIPR 111 122 120 118 116 92 68 44 39 S UBC NNET 105 118 139 146 145 124 96 70 44 S FSU REGR 129 137 133 116 89 60 37 22 13 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Sep 2009 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA 0.77 Aug 0.82 161 195 212 209 186 153 124 101 72 D NASA GMAO 115 144 157 145 128 110 98-999-999 D NCEP CFS 107 132 157 165 160-999-999-999-999 D JMA 130 137 134 126 114 95 66 33 5 D SCRIPPS 78 68 55 44 41 42 48 58 72 D LDEO 131 157 175 183 177 158-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 118 126 131 129-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 112 123 122-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 105 113 113 110 106 101 90 77 63 D KMA SNU 94 89 76 60 45 31 20 11 5 D ESSIC ICM 161 180 182 167 139-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 135 143 130 108 89 81 75 69 66 D COLA ANOM 59 64 72 84 93-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 118 124 126 123 114 98 83 73 67 D JPN-FRCGC 215 245 274 283 256 204 156 117 85 D COLA CCSM3 68 82 92 96 91 82 74 70 63 S CPC MRKOV 63 55 47 39 29 19 10 2 -6 S CDC LIM 125 154 161 150 121 86 61 40 22 S CPC CA 128 146 145 125 82 46 24 19 16 S CPC CCA 94 105 116 127 101 75 49 34 20 S CSU CLIPR 112 127 127 128 128 101 73 46 40 S UBC NNET 98 114 120 116 98 74 54 34 18 S FSU REGR 121 119 106 85 61 40 25 15 9 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Oct 2009 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS 0.84 Sep 0.83 113 129 123 104 84 68 57 40 16 D NASA GMAO 139 143 121 104 87 76 76-999-999 D NCEP CFS 116 135 141 139 129-999-999-999-999 D JMA 127 125 119 109 92 67 40 19 8 D SCRIPPS 43 25 16 18 26 41 61 85 107 D LDEO 126 147 154 151 139 122-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 131 137 134 124-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 123 126 105-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 82 83 83 82 81 76 65 55 46 D KMA SNU 82 69 54 40 28 18 10 4 -2 D ESSIC ICM 172 185 170 138 102-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 163 163 139 108 95 86 80 81 83 D COLA ANOM 45 55 71 85 92-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 114 109 94 75 52 33 22 18 13 D JPN-FRCGC 214 243 271 283 270 237 195 151 104 D COLA CCSM3 73 84 88 84 76 69 67 63 58 S CPC MRKOV 64 56 48 41 32 23 15 8 1 S CDC LIM 139 146 138 116 86 64 45 28 1 S CPC CA 144 136 114 87 60 42 34 26 17 S CPC CCA 101 90 78 67 61 56 50 38 27 S CSU CLIPR 110 123 125 128 130 103 77 50 44 S UBC NNET 114 119 112 95 71 51 31 14 1 S FSU REGR 129 137 133 116 89 60 37 22 13 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Nov 2009 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO 0.88 Oct 0.99 173 184 162 129 96 66 40 10 -21 D NASA GMAO 150 131 122 111 95 83 86-999-999 D NCEP CFS 161 166 156 134 113-999-999-999-999 D JMA 115 110 100 85 64 44 31 26 29 D SCRIPPS 75 70 69 66 69 76 88 96 104 D LDEO 165 171 165 147 124 104-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 118 109 98 89-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 87 67 33-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 84 85 84 83 79 72 61 52 45 D KMA SNU 113 92 70 51 35 22 12 5 -3 D ESSIC ICM 146 144 132 111 88-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 110 105 91 69 52 41 40 46 51 D COLA ANOM 90 98 99 90 76-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 131 121 104 81 60 47 35 23 11 D JPN-FRCGC 194 210 209 201 177 141 98 65 42 D COLA CCSM3 109 113 108 98 89 86 82 78 76 S CPC MRKOV 59 50 41 32 24 16 8 2 -4 S CDC LIM 118 108 87 64 46 31 20 1 -14 S CPC CA 161 131 97 65 47 39 36 34 28 S CPC CCA 108 90 73 55 43 31 19 24 28 S CSU CLIPR 124 136 138 139 141 118 96 73 62 S UBC NNET no FSU REGR 122 115 98 75 56 38 21 8 2 S FSU REGR 121 108 88 67 48 35 27 23 23 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Dec 2009 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON 1.18 Nov 1.67 211 203 167 119 77 39 5 -29 -58 D NASA GMAO 155 133 105 86 79 84 82-999-999 D NCEP CFS 180 172 154 127 96-999-999-999-999 D JMA 123 112 94 68 44 27 19 20 25 D SCRIPPS 119 102 83 64 49 38 26 16 16 D LDEO 184 181 161 137 116 98-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 150 120 97 77-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 151 113 84-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 115 111 107 101 91 81 69 60 52 D KMA SNU 114 93 74 59 45 33 25 17 11 D ESSIC ICM 165 146 113 79 46-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 147 128 95 63 42 32 25 14 7 D COLA ANOM 124 118 109 96 78-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 143 130 110 85 64 44 19 1 -1 D JPN-FRCGC 215 233 228 208 165 114 67 36 19 D COLA CCSM3 127 119 107 96 91 84 79 74 77 S CPC MRKOV 70 57 45 32 23 14 5 0 -5 S CDC LIM 107 84 57 37 25 18 6 -4 -10 S CPC CA 110 78 50 33 29 29 28 26 23 S CPC CCA 143 115 86 58 47 36 25 35 46 S CSU CLIPR 163 161 156 150 145 111 78 44 32 S UBC NNET no FSU REGR 167 145 117 96 78 61 46 38 37 S FSU REGR 131 104 68 31 1 -20 -35 -46 -56 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jan 2010 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND 1.51 Dec 1.83 196 174 135 87 36 -6 -34 -53 -67 D NASA GMAO 130 109 98 87 87 86 80-999-999 D NCEP CFS 153 131 111 91 68-999-999-999-999 D JMA 129 108 77 47 24 12 8 10 17 D SCRIPPS 137 111 78 46 23 6 -10 -14 -1 D LDEO 141 126 117 111 105 95-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 132 110 88 76-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 113 77 48-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 128 121 111 100 88 78 65 55 45 D KMA SNU 106 83 63 45 31 20 11 6 5 D ESSIC ICM 145 118 80 38 4-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 107 85 62 46 45 39 38 26 27 D COLA ANOM 102 97 93 87 77-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 135 94 58 31 5 -27 -52 -65 -72 D JPN-FRCGC 185 185 176 146 108 68 38 12 -6 D COLA CCSM3 121 107 95 89 82 77 73 76 82 S CPC MRKOV 83 65 48 30 20 9 -2 -7 -11 S CDC LIM 91 58 32 17 14 7 -3 -10 -6 S CPC CA 72 49 35 29 26 24 20 23 27 S CPC CCA 123 103 82 62 56 49 43 47 52 S CSU CLIPR 168 161 153 145 137 106 76 45 33 S UBC NNET no FSU REGR 148 124 106 90 74 60 52 52 57 S FSU REGR 103 62 19 -17 -43 -60 -72 -84 -98 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Feb 2010 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ 1.69 Jan 1.59 131 99 58 14 -27 -58 -80 -95-104 D NASA GMAO 121 100 79 69 54 39 33-999-999 D NCEP CFS 106 89 70 50 26-999-999-999-999 D JMA 116 82 48 23 8 2 1 4 11 D SCRIPPS 106 77 48 21 -3 -23 -28 -19 2 D LDEO 89 81 75 70 65 60-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 94 69 50 31-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 69 41 18-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 114 102 90 80 71 64 56 48 38 D KMA SNU 61 36 15 -4 -19 -32 -40 -43 -44 D ESSIC ICM 126 88 46 9 -16-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 99 89 78 68 62 62 65 69 64 D COLA ANOM 67 50 36 22 11-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 71 30 -10 -38 -59 -73 -84 -89 -95 D JPN-FRCGC 177 179 149 97 43 1 -30 -46 -47 D COLA CCSM3 84 75 73 69 67 66 72 81 90 S CPC MRKOV 53 30 9 -10 -24 -35 -44 -49 -51 S CDC LIM 68 34 15 9 -2 -15 -26 -25 -23 S CPC CA 57 40 34 32 32 30 31 39 48 S CPC CCA 93 77 62 46 43 41 38 40 43 S CSU CLIPR 140 130 115 99 84 74 63 53 45 S UBC NNET no FSU REGR 110 95 82 71 60 54 54 58 66 S FSU REGR 69 35 6 -15 -30 -42 -54 -67 -80 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Mar 2010 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF 1.54 Feb 1.23 73 27 -30 -90-138-169-186-193-191 D NASA GMAO 83 44 21 0 -11 -12 -17-999-999 D NCEP CFS 79 52 21 -9 -34-999-999-999-999 D JMA 67 35 13 2 -2 -2 2 10 18 D SCRIPPS 86 68 48 24 3 -4 1 14 20 D LDEO 79 56 34 12 -3 -12-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 50 17 -9 -31-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 84 63 40-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 78 67 56 46 38 34 28 22 11 D KMA SNU 48 25 5 -13 -28 -37 -40 -42 -42 D ESSIC ICM 67 31 -1 -27 -35-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 66 69 71 71 73 67 66 67 84 D COLA ANOM 58 21 -5 -16 -19-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 30 -36 -95-132-146-149-152-163-168 D JPN-FRCGC 126 118 91 60 31 11 1 -4 -9 D COLA CCSM3 77 71 64 58 52 52 55 60 62 S CPC MRKOV 24 -4 -29 -50 -67 -79 -86 -90 -90 S CDC LIM 31 6 -4 -15 -28 -40 -43 -45 -47 S CPC CA 75 64 63 64 69 78 86 95 94 S CPC CCA 63 45 26 8 7 6 5 6 6 S CSU CLIPR 92 76 63 50 37 37 37 37 37 S UBC NNET no FSU REGR 88 76 64 51 43 41 43 49 55 S FSU REGR 47 8 -23 -48 -71 -95-120-140-148 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Apr 2010 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM 1.32 Mar 1.14 7 -58-122-165-189-207-217-221-209 D NASA GMAO 41 14 -15 -31 -40 -49 -61-999-999 D NCEP CFS 46 9 -25 -48 -63-999-999-999-999 D JMA 24 3 -6 -8 -7 -1 7 15 21 D SCRIPPS 50 24 2 -20 -35 -45 -46 -48 -48 D LDEO 53 33 14 0 -8 -12-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 20 -7 -38 -71-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 2 -50 -80-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 43 29 17 8 1 1 -3 -8 -15 D KMA SNU 24 4 -17 -37 -52 -61 -65 -65 -60 D ESSIC ICM 32 1 -25 -41 -51-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 56 43 28 17 12 18 20 32 44 D COLA ANOM 6 -34 -56 -59 -53-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -47-115-150-153-147-151-162-169-167 D JPN-FRCGC 64 29 -4 -24 -38 -42 -34 -20 -2 D COLA CCSM3 60 53 47 40 38 39 43 45 44 S CPC MRKOV -14 -33 -53 -73 -77 -82 -86 -81 -76 S CDC LIM -6 -26 -42 -56 -68 -77 -88 -97 -94 S CPC CA 56 50 46 41 46 51 57 54 46 S CPC CCA 62 52 41 31 33 36 38 34 29 S CSU CLIPR 51 19 12 4 -3 5 13 21 25 S UBC NNET no FSU REGR 85 71 57 48 45 46 50 53 50 S FSU REGR 36 10 -11 -28 -46 -67 -89-107-113 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2010 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA 1.03 Apr 0.70 -71-125-149-166-179-186-188-181-164 D NASA GMAO -43 -62 -55 -58 -80-107-117-999-999 D NCEP CFS 1 -26 -46 -65 -83-999-999-999-999 D JMA 6 -3 -5 -4 1 9 17 24 30 D SCRIPPS 43 18 -4 -18 -27 -40 -60 -70 -62 D LDEO -15 -28 -36 -42 -46 -47-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -20 -50 -75 -92-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -45 -66 -73 -66-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 15 4 -2 -5 -5 -2 -5 -10 -16 D KMA SNU -9 -33 -58 -77 -90 -95 -94 -84 -70 D ESSIC ICM 2 -30 -47 -59 -68-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 51 19 -3 -9 -7 -16 -24 -29 -28 D COLA ANOM -39 -52 -44 -37 -29-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -96-137-142-135-137-149-164-175-181 D JPN-FRCGC 13 -11 -20 -26 -28 -24 -18 -12 -6 D COLA CCSM3 35 29 22 20 19 22 25 26 23 S CPC MRKOV -20 -37 -55 -72 -75 -79 -82 -77 -72 S CDC LIM -21 -42 -57 -71 -83-101-115-115-103 S CPC CA 33 29 23 18 15 12 7 1 -4 S CPC CCA 38 34 31 27 33 40 46 37 28 S CSU CLIPR 5 -28 -30 -32 -34 -18 -3 13 20 S UBC NNET 46 34 27 24 24 26 27 23 18 S FSU REGR 36 32 35 38 40 36 27 15 2 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jun 2010 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM 0.60 May -0.03 -195-244-258-259-258-251-236-212-180 D NASA GMAO -101-101-103-112-133-139-134-999-999 D NCEP CFS -64 -65 -68 -75 -80-999-999-999-999 D JMA -7 -10 -9 -3 6 14 20 26 35 D SCRIPPS -28 -46 -54 -62 -76 -93 -96 -79 -55 D LDEO -83 -84 -82 -83 -83 -80-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -63 -84 -92 -95-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -171-172-135-115-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -68 -76 -69 -56 -46 -36 -33 -33 -34 D KMA SNU -78-105-130-149-157-150-131-106 -87 D ESSIC ICM -49 -72 -85 -96-104-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -26 -52 -71 -88-106-108-100 -83 -63 D COLA ANOM -102 -95 -73 -54 -35-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -159-174-171-173-183-193-201-200-195 D JPN-FRCGC -48 -50 -51 -52 -50 -43 -26 -1 29 D COLA CCSM3 -36 -46 -55 -61 -62 -58 -51 -45 -38 S CPC MRKOV -34 -45 -57 -69 -71 -73 -75 -71 -66 S CDC LIM -23 -37 -51 -66 -88-108-115-108 -84 S CPC CA 14 11 8 2 -9 -18 -22 -14 -7 S CPC CCA -11 -8 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 0 4 S CSU CLIPR -28 -41 -34 -27 -20 -8 5 17 18 S UBC NNET -38 -43 -51 -54 -54 -48 -39 -32 -24 S FSU REGR -38 -54 -73 -94-112-119-113 -94 -68 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2010 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 0.05 Jun -0.43 -170-193-206-207-202-186-161-135-111 D NASA GMAO -91-110-132-162-165-155-130-999-999 D NCEP CFS -117-122-127-129-119-999-999-999-999 D JMA -28 -31 -29 -23 -19 -16 -10 3 20 D SCRIPPS -111-119-110-105 -97 -76 -51 -33 -25 D LDEO -99 -95 -96-102-100 -90-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -149-137-119-105-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -173-163-152-146-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -114-108 -90 -73 -59 -48 -46 -45 -44 D KMA SNU -144-171-191-198-186-158-124 -97 -78 D ESSIC ICM -118-124-124-128-128-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -66 -73-100-131-133-108 -74 -53 -42 D COLA ANOM -131-115 -85 -60 -38-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -168-170-177-194-214-225-224-214-199 D JPN-FRCGC -140-140-131-119-103 -74 -32 16 54 D COLA CCSM3 -82 -90 -97 -97 -91 -80 -68 -56 -43 S CPC MRKOV -44 -47 -50 -53 -52 -51 -50 -48 -46 S CDC LIM -29 -43 -60 -84-106-117-114 -92 -66 S CPC CA 3 3 1 -3 -17 -25 -27 -14 -5 S CPC CCA -101 -87 -74 -60 -47 -34 -21 5 32 S CSU CLIPR -72 -87 -79 -70 -62 -48 -35 -21 -16 S UBC NNET -51 -58 -67 -80 -85 -79 -67 -53 -42 S FSU REGR -116-145-172-186-178-148-104 -57 -17 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Aug 2010 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ -0.51 Jul -0.94 -156-187-210-224-208-179-143-116 -87 D NASA GMAO -104-139-170-175-160-128 -97-999-999 D NCEP CFS -110-109-109 -98 -78-999-999-999-999 D JMA -70 -79 -82 -86 -88 -82 -62 -31 -1 D SCRIPPS -130-134-132-122 -96 -63 -39 -28 -16 D LDEO -118-113-120-125-117-101-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -151-146-137-129-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -147-164-171-160-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -104 -90 -74 -59 -49 -44 -46 -44 -40 D KMA SNU -174-197-204-193-164-131-106 -89 -77 D ESSIC ICM -121-122-127-128-117-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -144-160-163-150-138-135-143-154-166 D COLA ANOM -140-126-101 -75 -57-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -179-194-212-230-233-226-212-196-178 D JPN-FRCGC -130-127-129-126 -98 -55 -6 36 74 D COLA CCSM3 -133-142-143-136-122-104 -85 -65 -44 S CPC MRKOV -84 -87 -90 -92 -88 -85 -81 -74 -68 S CDC LIM -108-133-163-183-183-163-119 -75 -37 S CPC CA -25 -40 -54 -61 -51 -37 -23 -9 0 S CPC CCA -111-124-137-150-124 -99 -73 -44 -16 S CSU CLIPR -122-136-126-116-106 -89 -72 -55 -42 S UBC NNET -106-117-132-137-128-108 -81 -57 -31 S FSU REGR -150-181-204-206-184-146-107 -75 -58 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Sep 2010 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA -0.89 Aug -1.20 -173-186-190-176-150-121 -95 -70 -45 D NASA GMAO -159-189-191-172-139-106 -99-999-999 D NCEP CFS -129-131-121-103 -72-999-999-999-999 D JMA -143-161-173-178-168-138 -95 -55 -21 D SCRIPPS -103-111-112-100 -77 -56 -42 -21 5 D LDEO -140-137-140-133-114 -93-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -151-147-142-134-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -212-234-217-172-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -79 -67 -54 -44 -41 -41 -43 -39 -30 D KMA SNU -206-215-201-169-133-107 -89 -76 -74 D ESSIC ICM -168-180-181-167-140-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -258-293-310-313-317-329-346-359-368 D COLA ANOM -140-120 -90 -65 -47-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -207-223-230-226-217-201-183-164-148 D JPN-FRCGC -99 -95 -90 -67 -25 17 48 70 84 D COLA CCSM3 -174-176-169-152-130-107 -82 -58 -38 S CPC MRKOV -113-114-115-116-110-103 -97 -88 -79 S CDC LIM -157-183-201-198-173-125 -78 -38 -15 S CPC CA -82-108-118-109 -68 -35 -15 -7 6 S CPC CCA -140-144-149-153-124 -94 -65 -41 -17 S CSU CLIPR -162-183-173-164-154-130-107 -83 -58 S UBC NNET -142-164-171-161-134 -97 -60 -25 5 S FSU REGR -159-179-183-163-125 -84 -51 -29 -16 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Oct 2010 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS -1.25 Sep -1.56 -214-229-232-203-147 -90 -46 -18 4 D NASA GMAO -180-168-147-115 -88 -82 -87-999-999 D NCEP CFS -138-130-116 -90 -60-999-999-999-999 D JMA -220-241-249-233-190-136 -88 -51 -25 D SCRIPPS -126-124-109 -85 -66 -54 -36 -11 16 D LDEO -127-106 -94 -78 -60 -47-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -164-158-144-116-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -241-230-190-137-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -119 -98 -83 -70 -63 -62 -60 -56 -43 D KMA SNU -215-199-165-130-105 -88 -76 -74 -82 D ESSIC ICM -204-197-175-144-114-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -229-227-217-207-220-247-278-308-332 D COLA ANOM -126 -98 -82 -66 -50-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -233-234-214-197-185-175-160-144-123 D JPN-FRCGC -153-151-130 -89 -46 -14 17 49 77 D COLA CCSM3 -191-185-168-145-120 -95 -69 -49 -34 S CPC MRKOV -142-142-142-142-133-123-113-100 -88 S CDC LIM -189-204-199-172-119 -71 -31 -5 13 S CPC CA -128-131-116 -90 -49 -24 -9 -3 4 S CPC CCA -194-177-160-143 -95 -47 1 5 9 S CSU CLIPR -191-209-195-182-168-140-111 -83 -59 S UBC NNET -214-221-208-173-125 -78 -32 7 37 S FSU REGR -146-155-145-115 -71 -25 12 36 52 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Nov 2010 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO -1.46 Oct -1.61 -150-146-133 -92 -45 -5 25 48 61 D NASA GMAO -156-153-135-112-110-117-123-999-999 D NCEP CFS -121-109 -87 -58 -27-999-999-999-999 D JMA -254-261-244-200-144 -95 -58 -34 -19 D SCRIPPS -154-138-109 -83 -60 -29 11 50 81 D LDEO -120-104 -95 -83 -71 -59-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -162-147-122 -92-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -215-197-155-118-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -116-100 -90 -86 -81 -71 -56 -39 -22 D KMA SNU -171-145-115 -94 -81 -73 -74 -84 -98 D ESSIC ICM -238-219-182-144-107-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -187-200-204-189-169-157-154-159-170 D COLA ANOM -131-109 -93 -78 -58-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -225-219-201-184-166-152-139-124-110 D JPN-FRCGC -153-126 -95 -63 -30 5 38 63 73 D COLA CCSM3 -196-179-156-130-104 -78 -57 -41 -28 S CPC MRKOV -174-173-172-171-158-145-133-118-104 S CDC LIM -206-202-175-123 -74 -35 -6 14 32 S CPC CA -219-167-113 -65 -33 -15 2 12 25 S CPC CCA -177-149-120 -92 -72 -52 -32 -3 27 S CSU CLIPR -196-214-198-181-165-137-109 -81 -50 S UBC NNET -185-173-142 -99 -54 -8 30 60 73 S FSU REGR -198-198-176-141-104 -73 -52 -39 -33 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Dec 2010 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON -1.53 Nov -1.45 -107 -79 -52 -23 14 49 81 95 97 D NASA GMAO -155-138-112-110-117-128-128-999-999 D NCEP CFS -105 -85 -60 -31 -6-999-999-999-999 D JMA -238-223-183-132 -86 -50 -24 -7 2 D SCRIPPS -138-115 -91 -67 -31 17 65 99 129 D LDEO -119-103 -92 -78 -65 -52-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -140-122 -99 -81-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -192-167-140-121-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -113-103 -97 -90 -79 -61 -44 -26 -9 D KMA SNU -158-158-120 -91 -71 -58 -54 -51 -67 D ESSIC ICM -172-144-115 -82 -46-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -167-162-153-142-145-159-176-188-192 D COLA ANOM -154-138-116 -88 -56-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -207-196-180-162-139-117 -94 -80 -75 D JPN-FRCGC -109 -81 -53 -15 31 72 101 114 117 D COLA CCSM3 -168-146-123-100 -78 -61 -49 -42 -33 S CPC MRKOV -180-177-175-173-159-146-132-117-102 S CDC LIM -209-188-140 -94 -55 -24 -1 17 29 S CPC CA -221-143 -79 -41 -26 -15 -2 7 19 S CPC CCA -125-103 -81 -59 -50 -40 -31 -23 -14 S CSU CLIPR -176-191-172-154-135-108 -81 -54 -27 S UBC NNET -140-115 -82 -51 -20 6 28 38 48 S FSU REGR -161-151-132-106 -79 -56 -44 -43 -51 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jan 2011 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND -1.52 Dec -1.53 -101 -75 -49 -20 5 22 28 24 13 D NASA GMAO -122 -84 -74 -78 -80 -84 -84-999-999 D NCEP CFS -112 -79 -45 -16 11-999-999-999-999 D JMA -203-167-120 -77 -41 -16 2 11 11 D SCRIPPS -101 -84 -68 -43 -6 32 59 83 98 D LDEO -133-105 -85 -66 -47 -27-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -116 -89 -69 -55-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -151-119 -94 -76-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -120-114-107 -94 -74 -52 -34 -16 0 D KMA SNU -94 -77 -67 -62 -67 -82-100-116-127 D ESSIC ICM -115 -94 -68 -34 8-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -137-135-129-130-131-147-158-183-187 D COLA ANOM -135-108 -83 -58 -30-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -174-161-145-125-105 -90 -84 -86 -91 D JPN-FRCGC -98 -72 -43 -8 30 56 68 68 66 D COLA CCSM3 -171-146-121 -97 -79 -66 -59 -50 -39 S CPC MRKOV -173-170-162-151-137-122-105 -88 -72 S CDC LIM -188-149-111 -83 -59 -44 -30 -24 -18 S CPC CA -162 -91 -48 -24 -11 4 19 25 32 S CPC CCA -107 -85 -64 -42 -26 -10 6 12 18 S CSU CLIPR -139-132-110 -88 -66 -48 -29 -11 2 S UBC NNET -117 -89 -64 -41 -19 0 11 17 20 S FSU REGR -175-147-100 -48 -2 29 40 33 10 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Feb 2011 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ -1.62 Jan -1.65 -68 -12 37 83 116 126 116 97 82 D NASA GMAO -67 -51 -43 -34 -32 -33 -49-999-999 D NCEP CFS -63 -26 2 29 48-999-999-999-999 D JMA -155-109 -67 -33 -9 8 17 18 9 D SCRIPPS -92 -75 -50 -16 17 41 61 73 76 D LDEO -83 -54 -34 -16 4 23-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -83 -67 -58 -50-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -116 -92 -58 -12-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -123-112 -96 -72 -50 -28 -11 5 18 D KMA SNU -97 -87 -81 -85 -99-118-135-148-153 D ESSIC ICM -91 -53 -16 24 61-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -104 -89 -89-100-115-124-130-137-139 D COLA ANOM -128-101 -74 -49 -21-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -127-108 -88 -66 -51 -54 -71 -90 -97 D JPN-FRCGC -93 -45 5 46 68 73 75 78 83 D COLA CCSM3 -145-119 -96 -77 -66 -59 -52 -42 -29 S CPC MRKOV -170-162-151-137-122-105 -88 -72 -57 S CDC LIM -139-107 -83 -67 -60 -57 -59 -62 -69 S CPC CA -75 -46 -31 -22 -17 -11 -5 -4 -2 S CPC CCA 10 26 41 57 60 62 65 101 136 S CSU CLIPR -49 9 27 46 64 67 71 74 68 S UBC NNET -109 -87 -66 -46 -30 -20 -16 -15 -16 S FSU REGR -133 -87 -39 -2 18 21 13 -1 -14 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Mar 2011 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF -1.52 Feb -1.30 -25 32 79 118 137 138 128 119 112 D NASA GMAO -56 -45 -34 -29 -29 -40 -51-999-999 D NCEP CFS -22 6 29 43 48-999-999-999-999 D JMA -92 -51 -19 3 18 27 28 20 4 D SCRIPPS -77 -47 -12 19 42 63 76 80 72 D LDEO -31 -2 21 41 58 71-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -67 -57 -51 -46-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -86 -51 -5 31-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -97 -80 -57 -33 -10 7 20 30 40 D KMA SNU -76 -70 -73 -87-107-125-139-144-134 D ESSIC ICM -83 -49 -10 26 49-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -74 -62 -62 -71 -83 -90 -92 -85 -60 D COLA ANOM -85 -62 -39 -15 9-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -85 -67 -49 -40 -49 -69 -87 -92 -84 D JPN-FRCGC -78 -29 12 41 55 60 60 60 64 D COLA CCSM3 -97 -74 -57 -47 -41 -33 -23 -10 5 S CPC MRKOV -136-124-113-101 -89 -77 -65 -55 -46 S CDC LIM -99 -79 -69 -67 -64 -67 -71 -79 -77 S CPC CA -19 -3 13 29 36 46 55 60 59 S CPC CCA -52 -16 20 56 62 67 73 78 84 S CSU CLIPR -61 -26 -1 24 49 52 55 58 50 S UBC NNET -81 -58 -42 -32 -28 -23 -20 -17 -13 S FSU REGR -81 -47 -22 -10 -11 -24 -42 -59 -68 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Apr 2011 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM -1.30 Mar -1.00 -10 31 56 57 45 29 19 16 16 D NASA GMAO -38 -20 -6 -1 -2 -9 -15-999-999 D NCEP CFS 1 28 45 54 61-999-999-999-999 D JMA -45 -15 2 14 20 20 10 -6 -24 D SCRIPPS -42 -14 8 20 33 40 37 25 16 D LDEO 2 28 51 68 79 89-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -66 -58 -45 -33-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -38 -3 27 34-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -70 -47 -23 0 17 30 37 43 50 D KMA SNU -54 -56 -71 -92-112-128-134-125-103 D ESSIC ICM -33 -8 20 38 39-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -50 -46 -47 -53 -59 -56 -28 19 46 D COLA ANOM -39 -19 -1 13 21-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -73 -61 -60 -73 -93-105-105 -94 -80 D JPN-FRCGC -12 28 53 68 82 95 103 110 111 D COLA CCSM3 -79 -62 -52 -46 -39 -30 -17 -2 13 S CPC MRKOV -87 -76 -66 -58 -51 -45 -40 -34 -29 S CDC LIM -64 -49 -41 -36 -38 -43 -54 -54 -49 S CPC CA -19 14 42 59 72 80 85 79 62 S CPC CCA -27 -4 19 42 55 67 80 75 71 S CSU CLIPR -45 -18 -3 13 28 30 33 35 31 S UBC NNET -56 -41 -35 -32 -31 -34 -42 -43 -30 S FSU REGR -67 -44 -30 -25 -27 -32 -36 -37 -33 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2011 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA -1.01 Apr -0.77 24 73 109 124 124 116 110 98 78 D NASA GMAO 10 32 42 50 53 53 47-999-999 D NCEP CFS 26 54 71 82 94-999-999-999-999 D JMA -13 4 14 18 16 6 -11 -29 -42 D SCRIPPS -6 7 14 22 25 18 2 -7 -2 D LDEO 38 74 99 115 129 142-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -36 -25 -18 -15-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 2 29 35 15-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -36 -8 18 36 48 56 60 64 67 D KMA SNU -60 -75 -97-118-135-142-132-108 -81 D ESSIC ICM -48 -31 -18 -15 -20-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -30 -37 -52 -61 -57 -45 -36 -37 -46 D COLA ANOM -24 0 15 19 19-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -51 -46 -51 -65 -79 -86 -87 -86 -84 D JPN-FRCGC -13 15 23 22 25 30 39 54 74 D COLA CCSM3 -45 -34 -27 -18 -8 6 21 35 43 S CPC MRKOV -35 -26 -21 -19 -18 -18 -17 -17 -17 S CDC LIM -45 -34 -26 -27 -34 -46 -49 -48 -40 S CPC CA 6 32 47 60 72 81 75 54 36 S CPC CCA -24 -19 -15 -10 -4 3 9 8 7 S CSU CLIPR -29 -5 -1 4 8 8 8 8 8 S UBC NNET -14 3 10 18 20 23 24 33 36 S FSU REGR -41 -26 -21 -23 -30 -38 -45 -46 -43 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jun 2011 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM -0.73 May -0.45 49 87 103 101 92 88 83 73 54 D NASA GMAO 13 13 3 -13 -28 -36 -43-999-999 D NCEP CFS 37 51 61 69 79-999-999-999-999 D JMA 0 10 15 14 4 -13 -31 -42 -46 D SCRIPPS -1 5 12 14 10 1 -2 2 13 D LDEO 54 76 84 90 98 110-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 9 17 18 12-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 9 8 -9 -26-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -5 25 48 63 70 75 77 81 81 D KMA SNU -47 -68 -88-105-112-105 -86 -66 -52 D ESSIC ICM -6 0 2 -1 -7-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -17 -27 -32 -15 18 39 34 12 -4 D COLA ANOM -18 -3 4 5 9-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -53 -62 -71 -76 -84 -87 -87 -84 -81 D JPN-FRCGC -17 -4 1 11 25 42 61 84 107 D COLA CCSM3 -45 -42 -39 -33 -23 -11 2 12 18 S CPC MRKOV -9 -5 -5 -7 -9 -12 -14 -16 -17 S CDC LIM -23 -16 -15 -19 -27 -31 -36 -35 -34 S CPC CA 11 25 35 42 46 39 23 13 4 S CPC CCA -18 -8 2 12 21 31 40 28 15 S CSU CLIPR -22 -10 -9 -8 -7 -4 -2 1 3 S UBC NNET 4 9 14 15 17 18 25 28 27 S FSU REGR -19 -16 -20 -27 -36 -41 -40 -34 -22 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2011 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ -0.46 Jun -0.18 18 25 17 5 -7 -14 -19 -23 -25 D NASA GMAO -18 -31 -54 -72 -81 -87 -78 -60-999 D NCEP CFS 18 24 26 31 34-999-999-999-999 D JMA 2 8 8 -1 -18 -34 -45 -47 -48 D SCRIPPS -13 -3 12 17 17 20 23 28 42 D LDEO 34 51 55 56 64 73-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 5 4 -1 -9-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 10 2 -12 -22-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 7 29 47 58 62 68 72 75 72 D KMA SNU -58 -80 -98-105 -99 -82 -63 -50 -40 D ESSIC ICM 18 31 34 33 34-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -2 -6 -2 26 40 36 9 -6 -19 D COLA ANOM -44 -32 -23 -17 -8-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -36 -48 -57 -63 -64 -67 -69 -73 -70 D JPN-FRCGC 43 46 41 44 56 77 96 108 106 D COLA CCSM3 -10 -23 -44 -74-111-130-123 -94-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -41 -39 -34 -26 -15 -3 5 11 17 S CPC MRKOV 3 1 -3 -8 -13 -18 -22 -24 -26 S CDC LIM -25 -23 -26 -33 -38 -43 -41 -38 -32 S CPC CA 9 15 20 23 16 4 -2 -6 -7 S CPC CCA -23 2 28 53 44 35 26 27 27 S CSU CLIPR -2 6 4 3 1 1 2 3 3 S UBC NNET -1 1 -1 -3 -3 9 14 15 11 S FSU REGR -19 -22 -30 -41 -50 -53 -49 -39 -25 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Aug 2011 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ -0.27 Jul -0.21 18 16 8 -5 -11 -15 -11 -8 2 D NASA GMAO -46 -53 -76 -91 -99 -87 -68 -58-999 D NCEP CFS -7 -3 3 9 19-999-999-999-999 D JMA 4 3 -6 -23 -40 -50 -52 -51 -46 D SCRIPPS 0 15 22 26 32 37 38 44 53 D LDEO 6 22 25 33 46 56-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -14 -26 -40 -50-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -35 -41 -50 -58-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -10 9 25 34 41 49 53 54 51 D KMA SNU -85-102-109-102 -81 -58 -41 -28 -14 D ESSIC ICM 17 23 27 31 31-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -18 -14 11 34 34 15 -3 -18 -35 D COLA ANOM -66 -65 -55 -40 -23-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -35 -45 -61 -71 -78 -84 -90 -90 -84 D JPN-FRCGC 43 50 54 63 83 110 128 125 101 D COLA CCSM3 -54 -81-116-157-177-167-134-101-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -47 -59 -69 -89 -88-999-999-999-999 D CSI-IRI-MM -51 -48 -39 -28 -16 -5 2 10 19 S CPC MRKOV -4 -8 -14 -20 -25 -28 -31 -32 -32 S CDC LIM -24 -26 -30 -36 -40 -39 -36 -32 -23 S CPC CA 19 22 24 17 3 -3 -8 -11 -13 S CPC CCA -4 4 11 19 18 16 15 17 27 S CSU CLIPR -5 3 3 3 3 5 6 8 9 S UBC NNET -8 -2 8 15 20 19 19 24 34 S FSU REGR -25 -33 -43 -53 -57 -53 -41 -24 -5 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Sep 2011 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA -0.36 Aug -0.64 -48 -51 -54 -48 -43 -33 -19 4 3 D NASA GMAO -104-126-127-127-111 -95 -87 -84-999 D NCEP CFS -32 -19 -8 6 21-999-999-999-999 D JMA -17 -28 -45 -61 -69 -66 -59 -50 -37 D SCRIPPS -13 -7 -1 9 19 26 37 50 62 D LDEO -27 -7 1 8 22 35-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -30 -41 -54 -53-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -99-103-102 -98-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -26 -8 5 16 25 34 36 36 37 D KMA SNU -108-116-108 -87 -63 -45 -32 -18 -7 D ESSIC ICM -33 -33 -33 -28 -23-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -1 25 39 48 25 2 -23 -45 -61 D COLA ANOM -83 -73 -54 -34 -17-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 30 40 52 74 95 102 81 45 5 D COLA CCSM3 -92-122-157-177-169-137-104 -76-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -81 -88-104-107-103-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -77 -71 -60 -46 -34 -22 -10 3 13 S CPC MRKOV -16 -20 -24 -28 -30 -32 -34 -33 -33 S CDC LIM -48 -53 -58 -61 -56 -49 -41 -30 -19 S CPC CA 14 14 8 -4 -7 -10 -12 -13 -5 S CPC CCA -10 -16 -22 -28 -19 -9 0 -3 -6 S CSU CLIPR -28 -10 -4 3 9 16 23 30 31 S UBC NNET -57 -52 -47 -39 -33 -22 -10 8 23 S FSU REGR -68 -79 -89 -93 -89 -75 -57 -39 -25 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Oct 2011 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS -0.55 Sep -0.74 -104-116-128-127-117 -98 -85-999-999 D NASA GMAO -125-154-153-138-121-117-118-129-999 D NCEP CFS -47 -35 -21 -3 13-999-999-999-999 D JMA -48 -67 -83 -89 -82 -70 -56 -40 -22 D SCRIPPS -41 -32 -16 -2 10 27 47 68 76 D LDEO -56 -40 -28 -8 13 27-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -79 -91 -91 -79-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -120-123-115-108-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -43 -28 -13 1 13 20 22 26 32 D KMA SNU -109-100 -79 -56 -41 -30 -18 -8 -3 D ESSIC ICM -57 -53 -44 -30 -18-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -2 21 34 34 13 -7 -29 -48 -64 D COLA ANOM -97-102-101-101-101 -99 -92 -84 -75 D JPN-FRCGC -97 -84 -68 -52 -35-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 34 59 75 83 78 52 17 -22 -55 D COLA CCSM3 -145-200-216-200-159-125 -96 -66-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -96-122-141-138-110-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -104 -93 -77 -61 -45 -28 -11 3 12 S CPC MRKOV -36 -38 -40 -42 -40 -39 -37 -33 -29 S CDC LIM -58 -62 -63 -60 -50 -39 -27 -15 -12 S CPC CA -12 -22 -35 -37 -36 -34 -31 -23 -15 S CPC CCA -55 -48 -42 -35 -20 -5 10 18 26 S CSU CLIPR -65 -60 -54 -48 -42 -28 -14 0 9 S UBC NNET -68 -64 -56 -50 -36 -25 -9 4 10 S FSU REGR -60 -67 -69 -65 -52 -32 -13 2 10 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Nov 2011 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO -0.78 Oct -0.97 -173-194-196-180-156-133-112-999-999 D NASA GMAO -111-119-106 -88 -80 -78 -84 -84-999 D NCEP CFS -64 -46 -27 -8 12-999-999-999-999 D JMA -84-101-106 -98 -84 -68 -49 -30 -11 D SCRIPPS -69 -52 -32 -15 9 37 68 84 87 D LDEO -65 -40 -20 3 23 39-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -111 -96 -76 -52-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -149-132-108 -87-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -56 -40 -25 -11 -2 5 9 16 24 D KMA SNU -90 -68 -45 -28 -16 -4 7 14 16 D ESSIC ICM -98 -77 -52 -29 -3-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -43 -44 -36 -26 -23 -29 -37 -47 -57 D COLA ANOM -72 -54 -44 -31 -15-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -160-157-142-129-116-105 -95 -88 -86 D JPN-FRCGC -1 6 7 18 29 39 46 54 60 D COLA CCSM3 -145-168-163-128 -94 -66 -34-999-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -130-144-139-112 -86-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -119-112 -84 -43 -5 30 61 82 83 D GFDL CM2.1 -108 -92 -74 -57 -38 -19 -4 7 16 S CPC MRKOV -36 -38 -40 -42 -40 -39 -37 -33 -29 S CDC LIM -78 -79 -76 -63 -48 -35 -23 -22 -28 S CPC CA -80 -86 -77 -62 -48 -33 -14 0 6 S CPC CCA -66 -56 -46 -36 -23 -9 4 3 1 S CSU CLIPR -100-101 -92 -82 -73 -52 -32 -11 1 S UBC NNET -95 -89 -82 -68 -57 -43 -31 -24 -27 S FSU REGR -95 -93 -83 -65 -45 -26 -13 -6 -5 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Dec 2011 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON -0.92 Nov -1.05 -218-198-164-132-108 -93 -80-999-999 D NASA GMAO -116-102 -87 -81 -77 -81 -78-999-999 D NCEP CFS -49 -27 -7 15 35-999-999-999-999 D JMA -117-124-117-103 -85 -65 -44 -24 -9 D SCRIPPS -91 -73 -49 -20 13 49 75 87 89 D LDEO -56 -30 -8 11 27 42-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -92 -69 -43 -18-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -110 -94 -74 -56-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -56 -39 -24 -13 -5 4 10 20 29 D KMA SNU -65 -42 -26 -14 -3 5 9 9 6 D ESSIC ICM -61 -36 -12 13 36-999-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -43 -38 -35 -35 -41 -51 -61 -71 -79 D COLA ANOM -90 -69 -49 -30 -11-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -146-130-112 -97 -80 -62 -43 -31 -27 D JPN-FRCGC -23 5 26 53 78 93 95 93 95 D COLA CCSM3 -111-107 -92 -75 -59 -39 -19 -8-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -119-115 -90 -60 -37-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -88 -80 -49 -6 33 64 91 101 90 D GFDL CM2.1 -108 -91 -73 -55 -36 -20 -9 1 14 S CPC MRKOV -61 -59 -58 -57 -51 -45 -40 -32 -24 S CDC LIM -91 -89 -75 -59 -43 -30 -25 -28 -34 S CPC CA -120-106 -83 -60 -39 -16 2 9 11 S CPC CCA 1 -6 -12 -19 -15 -10 -6 -3 1 S CSU CLIPR -110-112 -98 -85 -71 -51 -31 -11 -2 S UBC NNET -103 -96 -83 -75 -64 -54 -48 -47 -51 S FSU REGR -121-126-116 -99 -79 -64 -57 -57 -62 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jan 2012 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND -1.02 Dec -1.04 -164-149-107 -72 -36 3 31-999-999 D NASA GMAO -94 -84 -62 -49 -45 -38 -31 -26-999 D NCEP CFS -55 -33 -6 20 47-999-999-999-999 D JMA -138-131-115 -97 -75 -52 -31 -16 -2 D SCRIPPS -72 -55 -31 -3 30 55 70 77 81 D LDEO -98 -85 -78 -76 -73 -64-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -90 -69 -38 -4-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -104 -80 -47 -16-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -54 -38 -26 -16 -7 3 12 21 30 D KMA SNU -63 -41 -27 -15 -3 6 11 11 9 D ESSIC ICM -51 -29 -4 19 42 58-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -52 -50 -49 -51 -46 -46 -46 -60 -65 D COLA ANOM -82 -55 -30 -15 1-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -116-106 -91 -72 -54 -44 -42 -46 -51 D JPN-FRCGC -123-118-116-104 -84 -63 -50 -38 -27 D COLA CCSM3 -74 -63 -48 -29 -4 18 24 28-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -113 -87 -47 -22 -5-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -28 22 74 116 137 137 112 77 62 D GFDL CM2.1 -95 -87 -66 -36 -5 20 29 25 17 D CMC CANSIP -118 -99 -79 -60 -45 -34 -27 -17 -5 S CPC MRKOV -104 -93 -83 -72 -58 -43 -29 -16 -4 S CDC LIM -99 -82 -64 -45 -28 -18 -16 -19 -18 S CPC CA -124-103 -86 -71 -51 -33 -26 -28 -34 S CPC CCA 2 0 -3 -5 -2 1 4 5 5 S CSU CLIPR -113-118 -99 -79 -60 -41 -22 -3 3 S UBC NNET -95 -84 -73 -60 -49 -44 -48 -54 -58 S FSU REGR -95 -67 -33 0 26 45 57 65 71 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Feb 2012 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ -1.06 Jan -1.08 -41 -34 -24 -10 1 1 0-999-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -102 -79 -54 -23 11 37 49-999-999 D NASA GMAO -58 -44 -26 -6 20 31 35-999-999 D NCEP CFS -39 -6 20 48 78-999-999-999-999 D JMA -135-115 -94 -71 -49 -29 -13 1 14 D SCRIPPS -56 -36 -11 18 41 53 56 57 59 D LDEO -75 -59 -50 -49 -40 -30-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -46 -16 14 37-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -61 -32 4 40-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -32 -18 -5 6 17 25 35 44 55 D KMA SNU -53 -33 -18 -3 12 21 26 26 24 D ESSIC ICM -50 -21 14 52 84 104-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -35 -30 -31 -33 -43 -60 -72 -71 -50 D COLA ANOM -78 -49 -24 -7 6-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -77 -59 -36 -9 12 21 19 17 20 D JPN-FRCGC -11 27 64 96 111 108 92 73 60 D COLA CCSM3 -77 -49 -24 -5 2-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -8 36 81 124 153 163 155 147 143 D GFDL CM2.1 -70 -53 -30 -1 20 25 18 11 8 D CMC CANSIP -111 -91 -73 -59 -51 -47 -42 -35 -24 S CPC MRKOV -104 -92 -80 -68 -53 -39 -24 -12 0 S CDC LIM -72 -52 -31 -13 -2 1 0 -1 -1 S CPC CA -109 -94 -81 -65 -54 -53 -61 -72 -83 S CPC CCA -20 1 23 44 41 37 34 47 61 S CSU CLIPR -97 -92 -76 -61 -45 -34 -22 -11 -7 S UBC NNET -75 -63 -40 -24 -14 -20 -27 -35 -34 S FSU REGR -63 -29 3 27 43 52 58 61 62 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Mar 2012 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF -0.94 Feb -0.69 -30 -7 15 26 26 24 27-999-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -33 -19 12 51 80 91 90-999-999 D NASA GMAO -45 -21 -1 16 17 18 14-999-999 D NCEP CFS -2 21 49 77 99-999-999-999-999 D JMA -96 -76 -58 -39 -21 -4 12 25 33 D SCRIPPS -40 -14 11 27 35 35 33 33 39 D LDEO 5 16 28 39 46 47-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -16 15 42 61-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -35 -12 27 60-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -28 -6 18 36 44 51 57 66 69 D KMA SNU -22 -5 11 29 43 51 51 48 46 D ESSIC ICM -23 5 33 61 80 90-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -46 -31 -20 -12 -10 -12 -7 9 42 D COLA ANOM -21 7 30 46 60-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -78 -61 -38 -22 -18 -20 -22 -20 -17 D JPN-FRCGC -48 3 49 76 84 91 101 114 123 D COLA CCSM3 -23 -7 2 3 9-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -34 -14 15 36 41 32 24 23 27 D CMC CANSIP -50 -37 -29 -24 -23 -19 -13 -4 7 S CPC MRKOV -68 -58 -48 -38 -28 -18 -7 1 9 S CDC LIM -36 -12 6 15 15 12 10 9 14 S CPC CA -65 -43 -23 -7 4 9 9 9 8 S CPC CCA 14 25 36 47 51 56 60 63 65 S CSU CLIPR -54 -47 -38 -29 -20 -16 -12 -8 -6 S UBC NNET -44 -32 -28 -38 -45 -45 -44 -40 -28 S FSU REGR -8 21 43 58 67 75 81 86 85 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Apr 2012 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM -0.78 Mar -0.58 9 44 69 83 94 103 102 88-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -21 17 57 90 108 118 121-999-999 D NASA GMAO -5 15 33 38 48 46 46 42-999 D NCEP CFS 24 55 84 109 139-999-999-999-999 D JMA -69 -56 -41 -22 -2 16 29 36 42 D SCRIPPS -14 1 9 9 2 -5 -12 -13 -10 D LDEO 11 22 28 37 42 46-999-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 14 50 77 91 101-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 20 65 104 126-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -21 10 38 55 61 71 80 85 82 D KMA SNU -4 19 42 60 72 77 77 75 71 D ESSIC ICM -51 -14 21 39 49 57-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -29 -18 -10 4 24 51 68 85 89 D COLA ANOM -26 7 31 46 54-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -23 -5 14 24 24 20 16 17 24 D JPN-FRCGC 2 44 72 80 77 76 72 69 66 D COLA CCSM3 -9 4 7 19 20-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 16 65 103 122 118 108 101 101 104 D GFDL CM2.1 4 31 61 80 88 87 82 77 72 D CMC CANSIP -48 -42 -39 -41 -42 -40 -33 -24 -14 S CPC MRKOV -27 -23 -19 -15 -10 -6 -1 3 8 S CDC LIM -14 -2 1 -3 -10 -16 -19 -15 -11 S CPC CA -44 -17 7 21 28 31 36 36 28 S CPC CCA 9 11 14 16 18 20 22 20 19 S CSU CLIPR -9 16 19 21 24 18 11 5 3 S UBC NNET -29 -20 -19 -19 -19 -22 -28 -29 -18 S FSU REGR -16 2 15 22 28 31 32 31 29 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2012 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA -0.55 Apr -0.39 25 51 70 82 85 77 61 47-999 D NCEP CFSv2 40 83 112 125 130 132 133-999-999 D NASA GMAO 4 20 30 49 56 64 65 61-999 D NCEP CFS 52 84 113 146 179-999-999-999-999 D JMA -48 -37 -20 2 21 34 41 46 53 D SCRIPPS 23 40 53 61 71 80 88 88 81 D LDEO 31 62 81 88 94 101 106-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 26 49 68 84 100-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 48 87 113 122-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 13 46 72 87 97 106 106 102 96 D KMA SNU 15 38 56 64 64 60 57 54 48 D ESSIC ICM 2 19 33 45 60 76-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM -29 -19 -16 -13 4 23 33 25 6 D COLA ANOM 20 50 63 66 64-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -18 -3 8 6 -1 -7 -6 0 9 D JPN-FRCGC -6 42 61 64 69 81 97 106 100 D COLA CCSM3 3 5 16 23 29-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 53 87 103 102 98 95 95 98 96 D GFDL CM2.1 28 60 83 97 106 113 115 109 82 D CMC CANSIP -29 -26 -28 -27 -24 -18 -9 1 7 S CPC MRKOV -1 1 3 5 6 7 8 10 11 S CDC LIM 3 6 5 0 -1 -1 -1 -6 -2 S CPC CA -12 11 24 30 33 38 38 32 29 S CPC CCA 31 36 41 46 29 13 -4 -4 -3 S CSU CLIPR 10 34 35 36 37 31 25 19 15 S UBC NNET -6 1 3 6 6 4 5 12 16 S FSU REGR 3 15 19 21 20 16 9 3 2 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jun 2012 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM -0.34 May -0.05 61 86 103 113 121 112 95 79-999 D NCEP CFSv2 68 97 113 121 128 132 129-999-999 D NASA GMAO 36 42 56 71 86 84 71 68-999 D NCEP CFS 75 108 141 171 201-999-999-999-999 D JMA -36 -21 0 22 36 43 48 53 57 D SCRIPPS -13 -20 -21 -14 -9 -3 4 10 12 D LDEO 71 99 104 102 106 110 107-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 55 77 91 103 119-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 96 134 148 147-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 36 62 81 95 103 106 101 98 94 D KMA SNU 38 51 59 58 53 49 46 42 33 D ESSIC ICM 38 55 65 70 78 85-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 20 25 31 45 66 67 48 23 7 D COLA ANOM 28 52 62 62 63-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 12 23 30 29 23 19 17 16 11 D JPN-FRCGC 34 60 75 88 103 115 119 109 88 D COLA CCSM3 8 11 16 20 31-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 68 103 115 107 92 85 92 99 101 D GFDL CM2.1 72 103 119 131 144 149 146 121 99 D CMC CANSIP -20 -21 -20 -17 -10 -1 8 13 16 S CPC MRKOV 16 17 17 17 15 13 11 9 8 S CDC LIM 19 22 24 30 35 35 26 21 8 S CPC CA 14 24 31 34 39 38 31 26 20 S CPC CCA 4 1 -1 -4 9 21 34 22 10 S CSU CLIPR 27 43 44 44 45 38 31 24 17 S UBC NNET 20 21 25 26 28 30 34 34 30 S FSU REGR 21 26 25 19 10 2 -2 -1 5 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2012 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ -0.04 Jun 0.31 76 105 116 110 83 54 35 30-999 D NCEP CFSv2 112 133 145 151 156 152 141-999-999 D NASA GMAO 65 89 98 114 110 89 73 56-999 D NCEP CFS 113 148 180 210 229-999-999-999-999 D JMA 3 24 44 53 55 55 55 53 46 D SCRIPPS -3 -7 5 19 32 41 43 39 32 D LDEO 70 75 75 75 79 81 75-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 65 78 90 99 101-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 123 160 178 180-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 76 99 117 128 128 122 117 112 102 D KMA SNU 67 69 66 60 54 49 43 33 21 D ESSIC ICM 97 127 143 149 148 138-999-999-999 D ECHAM/MOM 77 94 108 118 104 71 38 18 6 D COLA ANOM 41 61 66 63 64-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 77 86 84 78 72 64 54 44 38 D JPN-FRCGC 108 132 150 172 191 199 185 154 115 D COLA CCSM3 30 42 54 73 80-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 102 104 84 65 61 62 62 59 52 D GFDL CM2.1 77 89 95 104 108 99 70 49 28 D CMC CANSIP -18 -17 -14 -8 1 9 14 16 18 S CPC MRKOV 31 31 31 31 25 20 14 9 4 S CDC LIM 28 31 38 42 44 35 27 07 -10 S CPC CA 56 58 59 69 71 61 48 34 20 S CPC CCA 37 33 28 24 15 7 -2 -11 -19 S CSU CLIPR 49 58 56 55 53 45 37 29 18 S UBC NNET 39 41 42 44 45 50 47 37 23 S FSU REGR 62 80 92 94 87 73 58 47 41 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Aug 2012 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ 0.27 Jul 0.55 88 97 85 62 35 21 17 17-999 D NCEP CFSv2 139 153 157 158 155 143 128-999-999 D NASA GMAO 66 69 75 78 65 56 45 43-999 D NCEP CFS 118 144 171 191 195-999-999-999-999 D JMA 55 75 80 77 71 65 55 40 24 D SCRIPPS 20 24 34 43 46 44 35 24 10 D LDEO 59 57 60 64 68 66 59-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 79 89 100 109 105-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 111 122 119 110-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 87 105 118 120 115 111 106 98 84 D KMA SNU 81 74 66 58 50 44 37 29 23 D ESSIC ICM 120 140 147 127 83 40 16 8 12 D COLA ANOM 59 66 63 61 60-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 90 92 88 85 83 76 64 51 42 D JPN-FRCGC 160 176 189 195 186 158 128 99 69 D COLA CCSM3 27 24 22 12 8-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 109 125 129 125 113 96 73 47 25 D GFDL CM2.1 101 109 109 109 106 92 81 61 33 D CMC CANSIP -9 -11 -11 -5 2 4 2 -1 -4 S CPC MRKOV 35 32 30 28 20 12 4 -2 -8 S CDC LIM 40 48 54 55 42 29 5 -17 -34 S CPC CA 79 82 87 81 62 39 17 -2 -22 S CPC CCA -3 -4 -6 -7 -6 -4 -3 -8 -14 S CSU CLIPR 62 66 66 66 66 56 45 35 20 S UBC NNET 60 67 76 79 75 65 52 42 31 S FSU REGR 67 68 61 48 37 30 29 35 43 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Sep 2012 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA 0.52 Aug 0.73 96 98 92 68 44 37 37 33-999 D NCEP CFSv2 98 104 111 117 112 97 80-999-999 D NASA GMAO 71 61 63 53 41 28 27 34-999 D NCEP CFS 77 89 99 99 91-999-999-999-999 D JMA 108 101 92 80 65 43 20 3 -5 D SCRIPPS 52 60 69 67 61 48 32 12 -5 D LDEO 53 49 54 57 58 53 46-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 53 60 66 65 57-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 71 80 84 74-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 79 92 98 97 96 95 89 78 67 D KMA SNU 68 55 45 37 33 29 24 20 19 D ESSIC ICM 52 53 55 59 60-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 67 66 66 62 51 39 29 26 25 D JPN-FRCGC 191 210 221 210 167 117 69 30 -17 D COLA CCSM3 66 80 67 47 26-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 88 94 95 89 79 69 55 48 46 D GFDL CM2.1 61 61 63 55 29 13 2 -6 -13 D CMC CANSIP 20 26 34 40 40 33 27 22 16 S CPC MRKOV 34 28 22 16 8 1 -7 -11 -15 S CDC LIM 57 60 57 42 29 6 -14 -26 -23 S CPC CA 59 60 53 36 21 8 0 -11 -21 S CPC CCA 71 76 80 85 65 44 24 14 4 S CSU CLIPR 56 48 43 37 32 26 21 15 7 S UBC NNET 83 94 97 90 75 55 36 16 0 S FSU REGR 128 137 129 107 79 54 36 26 24 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Oct 2012 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS 0.59 Sep 0.51 17 -3 -26 -32 -22 -10 4 18-999 D NCEP CFSv2 71 87 96 97 89 76 68-999-999 D NASA GMAO 45 50 47 41 37-999-999-999-999 D JMA 56 75 80 77 71 65 55 40 24 D SCRIPPS 76 86 85 78 64 47 28 10 -1 D LDEO 20 22 22 24 28 29 30-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 27 26 18 13 17-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 48 59 54 43-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 56 62 63 64 66 66 58 50 44 D KMA SNU 22 16 10 10 12 11 11 13 18 D ESSIC ICM 135 133 112 74 42 22 16 19 16 D COLA ANOM 22 30 37 42 42-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 50 47 38 28 19 12 9 8 8 D JPN-FRCGC 196 223 233 224 198 160 113 51 -8 D COLA CCSM3 17 7 0 -7 -6-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 56 66 63 56 54 51 47 42 32 D GFDL CM2.1 43 47 49 40 34 26 20 20 22 D CMC CANSIP 5 12 19 20 16 13 11 8 5 S CPC MRKOV 31 22 12 3 -4 -11 -17 -19 -21 S CDC LIM 72 67 49 33 13 -5 -18 -19 -25 S CPC CA 49 46 33 22 15 10 3 -7 -22 S CPC CCA 38 31 23 16 -4 -23 -43 -42 -42 S CSU CLIPR 35 27 20 13 6 3 1 -2 -7 S UBC NNET 69 71 66 54 37 20 3 -11 -22 S FSU REGR 59 44 24 7 -4 -6 -3 2 7 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Nov 2012 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO 0.51 Oct 0.29 0 -35 -49 -36 -14 11 39 65-999 D NCEP CFSv2 50 50 53 54 55 58 67-999-999 D NASA GMAO 35 28 19 12 14-999-999-999-999 D JMA 106 100 91 80 65 43 19 1 -7 D SCRIPPS 57 61 59 51 43 32 24 17 16 D LDEO 42 48 46 41 35 32 25-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 26 18 13 17-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 18 3 -15 -25-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 32 31 32 36 38 37 31 26 22 D KMA SNU 32 26 26 26 24 21 20 23 24 D ESSIC ICM 84 83 73 47 25 9 0 -5 -12 D COLA ANOM 35 50 57 53 47-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 38 38 44 49 52 52 50 46 38 D JPN-FRCGC 19 25 39 48 49 49 47 38 23 D COLA CCSM3 7 2 -5 2 -3-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 38 35 29 37 51 69 73 63 44 D GFDL CM2.1 38 37 34 40 40 33 27 26 24 D CMC CANSIP 5 13 16 14 13 14 14 14 16 S CPC MRKOV 23 14 4 -6 -11 -16 -20 -20 -21 S CDC LIM 66 49 33 17 1 -11 -16 -24 -37 S CPC CA 18 9 7 7 7 4 -2 -11 -26 S CPC CCA 34 28 21 15 5 -6 -16 -12 -7 S CSU CLIPR 14 7 -2 -10 -19 -19 -19 -19 -21 S UBC NNET 40 37 29 20 10 2 -4 -11 -16 S FSU REGR 35 34 27 17 7 -1 -7 -10 -13 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Dec 2012 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON 0.39 Nov 0.36 -54 -68 -63 -49 -30 -8 21 40-999 D NCEP CFSv2 53 47 43 40 41 46 57-999-999 D NASA GMAO 16 7 4 14 29-999-999-999-999 D JMA 94 82 73 63 52 38 27 23 25 D SCRIPPS 29 18 7 0 -5 -8 -13 -15 -13 D LDEO 7 7 11 12 8 2 -1-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -1 -11 -11 0 16-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -1 -4 0 12-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 10 8 11 16 16 17 13 11 7 D KMA SNU 10 15 18 17 15 16 20 22 19 D ESSIC ICM 52 46 31 12 -4 -13 -17 -17 -14 D COLA ANOM 10 10 16 25 34-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 0 -9 -8 0 13 24 36 43 49 D JPN-FRCGC -45 -46 -48 -43 -29 -18 -15 -15 -10 D COLA CCSM3 19 0 0 2 12-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 30 11 0 7 20 26 38 56 73 D GFDL CM2.1 32 24 28 32 37 43 46 40 27 D CMC CANSIP -1 2 1 1 2 3 4 7 12 S CPC MRKOV 18 7 -5 -16 -19 -22 -25 -23 -21 S CDC LIM 45 31 18 8 0 -7 -18 -34 -47 S CPC CA 19 15 14 13 10 3 -8 -24 -41 S CPC CCA 31 16 0 -15 -5 4 14 12 10 S CSU CLIPR 18 9 -1 -11 -21 -22 -24 -25 -25 S UBC NNET 32 24 13 1 -12 -22 -31 -34 -40 S FSU REGR 30 18 6 -4 -10 -15 -19 -23 -30 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jan 2013 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND 0.19 Dec -0.09 -55 -38 -26 -12 1 17 29 40-999 D NCEP CFSv2 4 7 10 12 15 17 17-999-999 D NASA GMAO -31 -30 -16 1 22-999-999-999-999 D JMA 18 -1 -21 -28 -20 -1 20 38 54 D SCRIPPS -12 -29 -37 -38 -33 -34 -37 -33 -24 D LDEO -63 -67 -66 -66 -71 -69 -62-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -11 -11 0 16-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -30 -36 -31 -17-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -23 -19 -11 -6 -3 0 -1 -3 -6 D KMA SNU -19 -12 -16 -20 -19 -15 -13 -16 -20 D ESSIC ICM 27 29 23 13 11 -4 -17 -38 -45 D COLA ANOM -15 -8 5 19 32-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -42 -40 -31 -20 -11 -5 -2 -3 -6 D JPN-FRCGC 14 33 49 62 60 52 43 38 35 D COLA CCSM3 -7 -10 -8 -2 3-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 9 20 29 42 55 63 61 44 23 D GFDL CM2.1 -11 -8 -4 6 17 30 32 24 14 D CMC CANSIP -35 -34 -32 -27 -23 -20 -15 -9 -1 S CPC MRKOV -14 -21 -28 -35 -34 -33 -32 -27 -23 S CDC LIM 5 -2 -3 -2 -2 -6 -18 -27 -24 S CPC CA 6 3 1 -3 -8 -17 -33 -51 -64 S CPC CCA -6 -13 -20 -27 -21 -15 -9 -11 -14 S CSU CLIPR -16 -20 -21 -21 -22 -18 -13 -9 -8 S UBC NNET -16 -20 -25 -28 -32 -37 -43 -49 -55 S FSU REGR -30 -41 -47 -48 -48 -49 -54 -62 -71 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Feb 2013 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ -0.05 Jan -0.41 -12 -7 -5 -5 2 4 12 16-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -13 -5 4 13 19 22 21-999-999 D NASA GMAO -54 -43 -29 -11 9-999-999-999-999 D JMA -53 -59 -48 -27 -5 12 25 35 43 D SCRIPPS -28 -28 -26 -21 -14 -6 2 4 -3 D LDEO -45 -35 -33 -39 -40 -34 -26-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -26 -18 -8 3 14-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -46 -48 -41 -26-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -43 -34 -25 -14 -5 5 7 7 6 D KMA SNU -31 -34 -41 -43 -39 -37 -39 -43 -46 D ESSIC ICM -2 7 16 24 29 26 14 9 15 D COLA ANOM -41 -32 -23 -16 -10-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -62 -53 -34 -14 7 19 22 20 19 D JPN-FRCGC -59 -51 -21 11 36 44 47 44 42 D COLA CCSM3 -11 -12 -8 -6 -7-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -9 -1 8 28 48 53 42 29 25 D GFDL CM2.1 -45 -35 -15 -3 2 1 -6 -10 -13 D CMC CANSIP -67 -61 -54 -48 -44 -40 -36 -31 -22 S CPC MRKOV -52 -55 -57 -59 -55 -52 -48 -41 -35 S CDC LIM -21 -21 -16 -10 -9 -19 -27 -25 -19 S CPC CA -8 -10 -12 -12 -14 -21 -31 -33 -32 S CPC CCA -19 -32 -46 -59 -60 -62 -63 -77 -91 S CSU CLIPR -44 -45 -36 -27 -18 -8 3 13 16 S UBC NNET -27 -19 -3 8 15 9 5 2 6 S FSU REGR -50 -52 -51 -49 -49 -52 -58 -66 -71 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Mar 2013 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF -0.31 Feb -0.40 3 2 -7 -12 -16 -13 -12 -14-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -2 5 10 17 25 30 30-999-999 D NASA GMAO -16 -5 8 23 35-999-999-999-999 D JMA -66 -71 -59 -38 -17 -2 10 18 25 D SCRIPPS -42 -40 -30 -21 -14 -12 -17 -28 -41 D LDEO 11 9 1 -2 -2 1 3-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -3 5 22 37 40-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -28 -28 -9 13-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -43 -32 -14 2 15 23 23 22 22 D KMA SNU -16 -25 -25 -18 -13 -14 -18 -23 -25 D ESSIC ICM -32 -21 -14 -12 -18 -27 -33 -23 5 D COLA ANOM -10 -7 -2 8 16-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -46 -47 -42 -42 -46 -49 -47 -43 -36 D JPN-FRCGC -47 -14 24 54 66 65 57 50 47 D COLA CCSM3 -21 -21 -15 -9 -12-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -3 20 48 74 81 72 63 58 57 D GFDL CM2.1 7 13 27 38 42 42 41 43 45 D CMC CANSIP -67 -63 -60 -59 -60 -61 -61 -57 -46 S CPC MRKOV -70 -70 -70 -70 -64 -58 -52 -44 -36 S CDC LIM -50 -52 -50 -49 -59 -71 -77 -77 -79 S CPC CA -26 -28 -27 -25 -28 -36 -39 -36 -33 S CPC CCA -43 -53 -63 -73 -83 -94-104-108-111 S CSU CLIPR -57 -65 -53 -41 -29 -15 -2 12 18 S UBC NNET -39 -40 -38 -37 -39 -43 -48 -52 -52 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Apr 2013 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM -0.34 Mar -0.22 37 22 14 7 10 17 17 11-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -1 -4 1 5 5 2 1-999-999 D NASA GMAO 17 21 22 22 28-999-999-999-999 D JMA -65 -55 -36 -13 4 18 28 36 44 D SCRIPPS -27 -26 -23 -21 -23 -29 -42 -52 -53 D LDEO -21 -37 -44 -40 -34 -30 -26-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 12 25 37 44 49-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -15 -18 -9 0-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -35 -13 13 32 38 39 38 38 36 D KMA SNU -8 -7 4 14 17 17 15 13 11 D ESSIC ICM -34 -28 -27 -33 -36 -21 9 48 67 D COLA ANOM -10 5 20 32 39-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -41 -45 -40 -40 -39 -34 -27 -21 -13 D JPN-FRCGC -30 -2 34 58 70 77 80 76 70 D COLA CCSM3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -9 5 15 12 7 0 0 3 15 D GFDL CM2.1 28 32 36 41 42 45 49 52 52 D CMC CANSIP -51 -50 -51 -54 -57 -59 -57 -48 -37 S CPC MRKOV -71 -72 -73 -75 -69 -63 -58 -50 -42 S CDC LIM -55 -57 -58 -64 -76 -83 -88 -94-103 S CPC CA -53 -54 -51 -53 -59 -63 -65 -69 -71 S CPC CCA -17 -11 -6 0 4 8 12 10 9 S CSU CLIPR -49 -62 -58 -54 -50 -41 -31 -22 -12 S UBC NNET -2 4 6 7 8 9 9 11 14 S FSU REGR -9 -7 -4 -3 -6 -12 -20 -26 -31 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2013 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA -0.24 Apr -0.10 14 22 22 19 18 13 4 -2-999 D NCEP CFSv2 7 14 25 35 43 49 54-999-999 D NASA GMAO 3 5 4 8 11-999-999-999-999 D JMA -44 -25 -4 15 30 42 52 61 69 D SCRIPPS 1 6 13 18 21 17 8 -1 -3 D LDEO -73 -96 -95 -82 -69 -59 -49-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -22 -6 -2 -7 -6-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -20 -13 -10 -20-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -32 -8 15 24 24 27 32 35 35 D KMA SNU -3 4 11 11 7 3 1 -1 -3 D ESSIC ICM -9 -11 -18 -22 -14 3 13 7 -14 D COLA ANOM -22 1 16 15 16-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -40 -42 -42 -45 -45 -40 -32 -25 -18 D JPN-FRCGC -36 -6 20 24 23 25 28 26 22 D COLA CCSM3 -31 -31 -31 -32 -30-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 10 31 39 37 33 30 32 38 47 D GFDL CM2.1 0 1 3 0 -4 -8 -8 -2 -3 D CMC CANSIP -65 -66 -68 -71 -74 -72 -62 -49 -37 S CPC MRKOV -58 -62 -67 -71 -66 -60 -55 -45 -35 S CDC LIM -32 -27 -29 -35 -38 -41 -48 -58 -58 S CPC CA -63 -69 -78 -84 -87 -87 -91 -93 -82 S CPC CCA -48 -53 -58 -63 -60 -57 -54 -47 -41 S CSU CLIPR -41 -56 -60 -63 -67 -61 -54 -48 -37 S UBC NNET 8 11 11 13 13 14 15 18 19 S FSU REGR 3 4 3 -1 -7 -11 -11 -9 -6 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jun 2013 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM -0.20 May -0.27 1 19 30 43 45 33 20 14-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -2 -1 2 4 9 18 27-999-999 D NASA GMAO -11 -3 2 5 13-999-999-999-999 D JMA -14 9 27 43 55 65 74 81 88 D SCRIPPS -15 -16 -11 -9 -12 -20 -24 -20 -10 D LDEO -85 -93 -81 -68 -61 -52 -40-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 2 18 33 46 57-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -32 -48 -65-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -19 2 12 13 17 28 33 36 38 D KMA SNU 2 9 9 7 5 4 2 -1 -1 D ESSIC ICM -17 -21 -32 -32 0 29 39 15 -10 D COLA ANOM -32 -21 -18 -16 -11-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -56 -62 -60 -55 -51 -43 -33 -21 -12 D JPN-FRCGC -1 23 46 52 54 52 49 38 23 D COLA CCSM3 -25 -20 -17 -14 -11-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -30 8 25 36 44 49 54 62 69 D GFDL CM2.1 -34 -38 -36 -37 -42 -44 -37 -32 -13 D CMC CANSIP -87 -90 -94 -97 -95 -84 -69 -54 -44 S CPC MRKOV -50 -53 -57 -61 -55 -49 -44 -34 -24 S CDC LIM -14 -15 -18 -19 -20 -24 -31 -32 -29 S CPC CA -47 -56 -63 -68 -66 -69 -73 -67 -52 S CPC CCA -39 -28 -17 -6 -15 -25 -34 -24 -15 S CSU CLIPR -38 -44 -45 -47 -48 -42 -37 -31 -24 S UBC NNET -13 -11 -11 -14 -18 -18 -14 -8 -5 S FSU REGR -21 -21 -25 -32 -37 -36 -29 -20 -9 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2013 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ -0.19 Jun -0.21 -2 10 14 6 -13 -29 -27 -11-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -9 -12 -12 -11 -8 -2 9-999-999 D NASA GMAO -29 -27 -26 -22 -16-999-999-999-999 D JMA 24 45 60 71 79 86 91 93 92 D SCRIPPS -43 -49 -48 -50 -53 -50 -40 -26 -11 D LDEO -90 -95 -86 -75 -68 -57 -42-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -1 9 16 23 36-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -48 -69 -83-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 7 14 15 20 30 39 42 45 47 D KMA SNU -13 -15 -20 -22 -22 -23 -21 -15 -7 D ESSIC ICM 4 -1 0 20 43 41 17 -13 -39 D COLA ANOM -110-103 -77 -49 -2-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -44 -53 -57 -55 -48 -39 -27 -21 -11 D JPN-FRCGC 30 49 59 59 59 65 73 77 70 D COLA CCSM3 -21 -25 -24 -22 -21-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -37 -9 16 31 38 49 62 70 67 D GFDL CM2.1 -17 -18 -16 -15 -11 -3 -1 14 27 D CMC CANSIP -78 -79 -80 -76 -65 -50 -37 -28 -19 S CPC MRKOV -47 -50 -53 -56 -48 -40 -31 -20 -8 S CDC LIM -19 -22 -20 -15 -15 -18 -18 -13 -2 S CPC CA -62 -73 -80 -78 -77 -76 -67 -47 -28 S CPC CCA -66 -55 -44 -33 -28 -24 -19 -5 10 S CSU CLIPR -41 -51 -47 -44 -40 -32 -24 -16 -10 S UBC NNET -5 -3 -5 -7 -7 4 9 10 9 S FSU REGR -21 -33 -44 -52 -51 -43 -30 -16 -4 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Aug 2013 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ -0.26 Jul -0.31 -5 15 17 15 12 16 25 35-999 D NCEP CFSv2 25 28 28 31 35 38 40-999-999 D NASA GMAO -28 -24 -18 -11 -1-999-999-999-999 D JMA 52 61 67 73 79 84 86 81 71 D SCRIPPS -42 -53 -64 -73 -72 -60 -43 -24 -2 D LDEO -31 -25 -18 -8 4 14 22-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 9 16 23 36-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -56 -74 -86-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 2 2 8 21 31 38 40 44 44 D KMA SNU -26 -33 -38 -39 -39 -33 -22 -9 4 D ESSIC ICM -6 0 6 14 21-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -14 -15 -17 -15 -6 5 11 15 21 D JPN-FRCGC 29 35 36 38 47 60 67 66 57 D COLA CCSM3 -24 -17 -17 -28 -32-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -13 -2 6 21 44 69 87 91 89 D GFDL CM2.1 -15 -17 -23 -25 -21 -21 -8 10 35 D CMC CANSIP -68 -67 -62 -50 -35 -23 -16 -9 0 S CPC MRKOV -48 -49 -50 -51 -41 -31 -21 -9 3 S CDC LIM -43 -38 -28 -25 -29 -29 -21 -5 15 S CPC CA -69 -77 -79 -82 -85 -78 -60 -42 -27 S CPC CCA -59 -61 -62 -64 -54 -45 -35 -8 18 S CSU CLIPR -44 -51 -44 -38 -31 -21 -12 -2 5 S UBC NNET -25 -22 -17 -13 -8 -4 2 11 24 S FSU REGR -38 -44 -50 -52 -48 -39 -28 -18 -9 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Sep 2013 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA -0.27 Aug -0.28 18 26 29 25 25 34 40 43-999 D NCEP CFSv2 33 38 44 50 50 49 51-999-999 D NASA GMAO -3 2 8 16 26-999-999-999-999 D JMA 37 45 52 60 67 74 79 77 71 D SCRIPPS -48 -76 -95 -94 -74 -51 -30 1 38 D LDEO -10 -15 -15 -8 1 10 19-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 26 40 50 56 56-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -33 -53 -64-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -10 -3 12 25 31 36 39 42 41 D KMA SNU -17 -28 -32 -34 -31 -21 -10 1 12 D ESSIC ICM 20 58 78 72 50 31 12 -4 -11 D COLA ANOM 9 11 17 23 28-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -34 -31 -21 -13 -7 -4 1 8 19 D JPN-FRCGC 37 48 55 60 70 79 78 70 63 D COLA CCSM3 -23 -20 -32 -47 -56-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 11 17 20 30 43 55 62 74 95 D GFDL CM2.1 13 11 9 17 22 32 32 30 31 D CMC CANSIP -62 -56 -44 -29 -18 -11 -4 3 8 S CPC MRKOV -48 -47 -45 -44 -34 -24 -13 -2 9 S CDC LIM -41 -31 -27 -30 -29 -22 -8 17 35 S CPC CA -52 -52 -54 -58 -54 -40 -25 -12 -7 S CPC CCA -34 -41 -49 -56 -40 -24 -8 -7 -6 S CSU CLIPR -37 -41 -32 -22 -13 -1 10 22 30 S UBC NNET -27 -26 -23 -18 -13 -3 11 28 41 S FSU REGR -41 -53 -61 -64 -63 -57 -50 -42 -37 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Oct 2013 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS -0.21 Sep -0.03 15 33 38 41 47 51 55 53-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -7 2 10 18 25-999-999-999-999 D JMA 33 40 49 57 65 70 71 68 66 D SCRIPPS -66 -93 -97 -79 -57 -37 -8 30 57 D LDEO -29 -18 -6 8 22 33 43-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 8 23 30 29 30-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -32 -35 -38-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -6 9 24 31 34 38 38 38 36 D KMA SNU -27 -30 -33 -30 -22 -14 -5 3 9 D ESSIC ICM 26 36 39 41 44-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 3 11 17 19 18 17 23 32 42 D JPN-FRCGC -57 -73 -78 -71 -59 -47 -31 -7 16 D COLA CCSM3 -30 -40 -48 -50 -37-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -14 0 24 55 82 97 99 99 98 D GFDL CM2.1 2 5 15 18 25 30 40 58 68 D CMC CANSIP -65 -54 -39 -28 -21 -13 -6 -1 2 S CPC MRKOV -48 -47 -45 -44 -34 -24 -13 -2 9 S CDC LIM -26 -24 -28 -30 -25 -11 14 32 39 S CPC CA -40 -39 -41 -33 -16 -1 13 19 23 S CPC CCA -11 -9 -8 -6 11 29 46 44 43 S CSU CLIPR -28 -41 -32 -22 -13 -1 10 22 30 S UBC NNET 7 11 13 14 16 25 35 42 47 S FSU REGR -10 -13 -11 -7 0 9 17 22 25 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Nov 2013 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO -0.23 Oct -0.33 8 -4 -12 -1 17 34 43 54-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -8 -10 -11 -14 -14 -9 4-999-999 D NASA GMAO 2 8 12 17 26-999-999-999-999 D JMA 29 39 50 60 66 68 72 79 89 D SCRIPPS -52 -57 -48 -40 -31 -13 9 25 33 D LDEO -14 -14 -11 -4 0 2 1-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 12 14 14 17 24-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -23 -34 -44-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 23 39 46 50 51 51 47 44 42 D KMA SNU -17 -18 -15 -8 -1 6 12 15 16 D ESSIC ICM 65 87 109 131 147 148 134 119 108 D COLA CCSM3 -5 -1 3 10 19-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 15 25 29 28 28 34 44 52 53 D JPN-FRCGC -32 -38 -42 -30 -20-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 10 27 38 53 64 79 86 87 77 D GFDL CM2.1 9 9 6 16 23 32 42 51 52 D CMC CANSIP -29 -15 -5 0 5 11 15 18 23 S CPC MRKOV -32 -32 -31 -31 -25 -19 -13 -5 2 S CDC LIM -27 -31 -31 -25 -10 15 33 39 30 S CPC CA -51 -51 -39 -19 -2 16 33 47 50 S CPC CCA 1 0 -2 -3 6 16 25 33 40 S CSU CLIPR -18 -10 -5 1 6 14 21 29 34 S UBC NNET -19 -13 -9 2 23 51 71 85 84 S FSU REGR -23 -27 -26 -22 -15 -7 2 9 12 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Dec 2013 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON -0.13 Nov 0.01 -22 -20 -3 20 42 59 77 88-999 D NCEP CFSv2 7 -6 -11 -5 14 36 59-999-999 D NASA GMAO 9 9 12 22 32-999-999-999-999 D JMA 34 43 53 62 68 70 73 80 90 D SCRIPPS -34 -32 -28 -24 -12 6 19 24 36 D LDEO -16 -23 -21 -15 -8 -2 4-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 5 4 12 22 37-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -21 -35 -40-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 44 52 56 58 55 53 49 48 46 D KMA SNU 12 11 20 29 36 41 44 43 39 D ESSIC ICM -10 -5 -8 -17 -24 -27 -31 -35 -38 D COLA CCSM3 -4 0 11 21 27-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -15 -26 -20 -12 5-999-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 8 33 59 74 95 120 142 138 113 D GFDL CM2.1 21 25 45 60 67 74 78 72 57 D CMC CANSIP -6 3 7 11 15 19 21 25 32 S CPC MRKOV -22 -23 -24 -26 -21 -17 -13 -7 -1 S CDC LIM -17 -19 -16 -4 14 27 32 25 22 S CPC CA -56 -53 -39 -23 -4 15 32 38 42 S CPC CCA -1 1 3 5 8 12 15 28 41 S CSU CLIPR 3 4 9 15 20 24 28 32 32 S UBC NNET 10 9 12 22 36 47 53 52 59 S FSU REGR 27 23 17 12 10 11 11 10 8 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jan 2014 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND -0.12 Dec -0.04 -10 16 36 52 68 84 89 97-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -19 -12 1 19 41 66 81-999-999 D NASA GMAO -10 -3 13 30 51-999-999-999-999 D JMA 41 49 57 62 65 71 80 91 103 D SCRIPPS -12 -21 -24 -17 -4 0 -3 4 22 D LDEO -45 -36 -31 -29 -24 -14 -2-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -6 4 20 40 65-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -25 -32 -27-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 18 27 36 39 38 40 42 45 42 D KMA SNU -20 -4 6 15 23 28 28 24 21 D ESSIC ICM 24 39 62 80 82 73 65 60 56 D COLA CCSM3 -12 1 17 24 35-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -45 -34 -18 0 21 32-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 16 45 75 97 105 102 80 48 25 D GFDL CM2.1 6 22 38 51 64 78 82 79 75 D CMC CANSIP -28 -22 -17 -11 -8 -6 -4 0 4 S CPC MRKOV -15 -16 -17 -18 -15 -12 -9 -4 1 S CDC LIM -13 -12 -4 11 24 32 25 25 29 S CPC CA -43 -27 -9 10 27 40 45 49 55 S CPC CCA -4 -2 0 2 9 15 22 27 32 S CSU CLIPR -5 -6 1 8 15 19 24 28 27 S UBC NNET -3 3 13 30 42 50 47 51 59 S FSU REGR end Forecast issued Feb 2014 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ -0.18 Jan -0.51 -11 18 40 50 58 61 74 87-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -12 1 17 39 62 77 84-999-999 D NASA GMAO -23 1 23 46 69-999-999-999-999 D JMA 30 38 46 54 64 78 92 105 115 D SCRIPPS -30 -30 -27 -22 -15 -10 -5 -3 -8 D LDEO -52 -38 -26 -14 5 25 41-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -11 18 48 72 90-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 11 18 24-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -9 9 20 28 34 44 50 51 46 D KMA SNU -17 -1 10 17 21 21 18 19 22 D ESSIC ICM 12 50 88 111 117 115 98 72 40 D COLA CCSM3 -26 -6 15 31 51-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -14 -2 10 27 40 45 43 38 35 D JPN-FRCGC -33 -21 5 18 24 19-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -21 14 57 84 87 65 36 18 12 D GFDL CM2.1 -10 6 28 48 65 73 73 66 62 D CMC CANSIP -49 -40 -31 -23 -18 -12 -5 4 14 S CPC MRKOV -19 -17 -14 -11 -8 -4 0 3 7 S CDC LIM -23 -15 1 18 31 28 33 42 60 S CPC CA -32 -18 0 18 34 41 46 54 66 S CPC CCA -46 -24 -2 20 16 13 9 18 26 S CSU CLIPR -21 -6 7 21 34 40 45 51 47 S UBC NNET -22 -2 28 52 70 69 73 81 98 S FSU REGR -28 -16 -5 4 10 13 13 10 6 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Mar 2014 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF -0.37 Feb -0.55 9 45 65 77 81 93 110 118-999 D NCEP CFSv2 5 31 56 84 103 111 117-999-999 D NASA GMAO -4 21 44 66 85-999-999-999-999 D JMA 24 36 49 64 80 96 109 119 124 D SCRIPPS -24 -2 16 17 11 20 39 50 43 D LDEO -17 6 25 47 68 86 101-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 20 54 83 111 126-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 25 54 68-999-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 5 23 34 45 57 71 75 74 70 D KMA SNU -55 -29 0 22 32 34 28 27 32 D COLA CCSM3 -9 18 44 75 104-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -3 22 41 56 60 54 43 30 20 D SINTEX-F -42 -20 5 19 20 13-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 15 58 101 128 126 104 81 64 56 D GFDL CM2.1 -28 -5 21 50 68 73 69 65 65 D CMC CANSIP -37 -27 -18 -10 0 13 27 42 58 S CPC MRKOV -11 -5 1 7 10 13 16 17 19 S CDC LIM -26 -11 6 19 13 12 20 36 39 S CPC CA -12 14 36 54 60 65 70 78 73 S CPC CCA -27 -15 -2 10 10 10 10 11 11 S CSU CLIPR -21 -4 14 31 49 57 64 72 68 S UBC NNET 12 57 89 106 108 123 146 180 200 S FSU REGR -13 7 26 43 55 61 63 61 57 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Apr 2014 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM -0.43 Mar -0.22 73 98 110 114 126 147 154 138-999 D NCEP CFSv2 40 61 82 100 111 121 126-999-999 D NASA GMAO 47 70 94 116 142-999-999-999-999 D JMA 34 51 68 83 96 107 115 119 119 D SCRIPPS 11 30 33 26 30 47 58 53 45 D LDEO 56 80 102 120 132 140 146-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 57 87 113 132 149-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 39 47 57 68-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 36 51 64 80 93 99 94 90 85 D KMA SNU 28 57 90 123 145-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 43 67 90 106 110 105 100 98 97 D SINTEX-F 16 34 54 66 76 81-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 46 83 115 130 130 128 127 127 123 D GFDL CM2.1 28 45 65 82 92 99 105 111 112 D CMC CANSIP 17 24 30 39 53 69 84 98 105 S CPC MRKOV -5 0 5 10 12 14 15 16 17 S CDC LIM 1 25 42 40 40 50 67 70 61 S CPC CA 27 46 61 68 76 87 101 102 88 S CPC CCA -19 -10 -1 8 20 33 45 40 34 S CSU CLIPR -2 8 25 41 58 69 79 90 87 S UBC NNET 48 77 97 102 116 132 156 166 159 S FSU REGR 42 54 63 73 84 95 99 93 80 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2014 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA -0.18 Apr 0.24 59 69 78 98 116 125 121 108-999 D NCEP CFSv2 70 91 111 126 140 148 154-999-999 D NASA GMAO 71 90 107 129 153-999-999-999-999 D JMA 74 87 98 107 114 118 118 112 100 D SCRIPPS 59 69 76 88 100 101 85 66 54 D LDEO 65 75 78 80 83 85 84-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 87 113 132 149-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 51 57 65 77-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 53 68 84 98 100 96 90 88 82 D KMA SNU 65 76 82 86 95 107 114 105 84 D ESSIC ICM 46 50 51 51 53 54 53 49 37 D COLA CCSM3 44 58 71 76 75-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 60 83 97 96 86 78 76 75 72 D SINTEX-F 38 45 47 50 56 75-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 43 49 48 50 45 38 34 38 44 D GFDL CM2.1 56 74 90 99 99 97 98 97 84 D CMC CANSIP 51 65 74 78 82 86 89 90 87 D GFDL CM2.5 28 32 39 50 63 75 88 94 91 S CPC MRKOV 5 5 4 3 4 4 5 7 9 S CDC LIM 25 40 38 39 51 67 70 59 47 S CPC CA 39 55 63 72 83 95 93 76 58 S CPC CCA 33 43 52 62 55 49 42 34 25 S CSU CLIPR 24 24 33 43 52 60 69 77 76 S UBC NNET 55 69 73 83 97 117 124 111 90 S FSU REGR 59 51 45 42 40 33 21 5 -9 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jun 2014 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM 0.16 May 0.45 42 49 70 88 94 89 82 79-999 D NCEP CFSv2 68 78 94 108 115 117 117-999-999 D NASA GMAO 55 60 74 91 108-999-999-999-999 D JMA 76 89 101 112 121 125 125 119 106 D SCRIPPS 49 42 47 56 53 38 23 19 23 D LDEO 29 18 16 20 23 24 26-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 60 75 99 118 134-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 50 49 54 60-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 76 98 116 121 115 110 105 101 90 D KMA SNU 65 65 67 74 84 89 82 66 45 D ESSIC ICM 89 95 97 108 119 120 102 66 13 D COLA CCSM3 70 83 88 86 79-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 81 99 105 98 89 88 89 90 87 D SINTEX-F 56 66 78 90 108 132-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 37 43 52 51 48 50 55 58 55 D GFDL CM2.1 90 107 116 116 117 119 118 105 98 D CMC CANSIP 73 86 97 101 104 107 109 108 105 D GFDL CM2.5 42 48 58 69 80 91 96 91 79 S CPC MRKOV 7 2 -2 -7 -7 -7 -7 -4 -1 S CDC LIM 50 49 51 64 82 88 81 69 54 S CPC CA 48 49 56 65 78 78 62 46 37 S CPC CCA 89 107 125 143 143 143 143 111 80 S CSU CLIPR 38 34 37 39 42 48 55 61 60 S UBC NNET 71 73 83 97 118 126 115 94 72 S FSU REGR 102 117 133 143 143 128 101 70 41 S UCLA-TCD 54 50 41 31 21 13 3 -4 -8 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Jul 2014 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 0.39 Jun 0.46 47 70 98 106 99 88 83 81-999 D NCEP CFSv2 66 85 104 114 118 115 110-999-999 D NASA GMAO 17 29 46 60 69-999-999-999-999 D JMA 91 103 116 127 133 133 125 110 86 D SCRIPPS 50 44 33 27 25 31 37 42 57 D LDEO -16 -12 1 8 11 13 18-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 54 80 106 123 135-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 32 37 41 38-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 83 105 116 115 111 109 105 98 86 D KMA SNU 35 32 35 41 44 39 29 16 4 D ESSIC ICM 77 83 93 100 101 104 99 82 47 D COLA CCSM3 73 86 89 83 76-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 87 94 91 90 92 94 94 88 82 D SINTEX-F 69 87 102 119 133 139-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 46 58 62 59 54 55 60 69 73 D GFDL CM2.1 85 99 101 100 99 96 76 67 58 D CMC CANSIP 67 83 90 96 102 107 112 112 103 D GFDL CM2.5 32 39 46 55 64 69 66 57 48 S CPC MRKOV 15 8 1 -7 -9 -11 -12 -10 -8 S CDC LIM 56 63 81 105 115 110 96 74 59 S CPC CA 39 40 45 56 57 46 35 33 33 S CPC CCA 17 65 114 162 156 149 143 132 120 S CSU CLIPR 63 71 73 76 78 74 70 66 55 S UBC NNET 57 67 81 100 108 97 80 63 54 S FSU REGR 91 104 114 115 105 84 60 39 23 S UCLA-TCD 29 8 -14 -33 -43 -46 -48 -49 -46 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Aug 2014 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ 0.37 Jul 0.18 50 87 106 106 97 90 87 82-999 D NCEP CFSv2 49 72 82 82 81 82 82-999-999 D NASA GMAO 15 36 54 66 74-999-999-999-999 D JMA 106 117 124 125 118 104 83 60 42 D SCRIPPS 37 30 22 19 22 25 26 34 55 D LDEO 7 19 25 31 36 41 44-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 59 86 106 117 118-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 41 43 36 27-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 74 89 94 96 98 99 93 85 75 D KMA SNU 21 24 27 30 25 17 9 1 -7 D ESSIC ICM 81 96 115 138 158 161 141 107 71 D COLA CCSM3 71 81 80 83 88 90 86 81 78 D SINTEX-F 59 71 94 110 126 113-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -6 -4 -2 5 18 34 46 55 69 D GFDL CM2.1 60 81 97 107 114 108 106 95 82 D CMC CANSIP 15 27 35 42 52 66 77 79 76 D GFDL CM2.5 24 34 44 56 64 64 57 50 46 S CPC MRKOV 24 18 12 6 2 -1 -5 -5 -6 S CDC LIM 61 79 102 118 118 107 84 67 48 S CPC CA 47 53 63 64 54 46 44 43 40 S CPC CCA 61 92 123 154 132 111 89 77 66 S CSU CLIPR 57 77 81 84 88 82 76 70 57 S UBC NNET 14 18 23 26 29 30 33 42 50 S FSU REGR 44 56 68 78 84 84 79 71 65 S UCLA-TCD 21 16 8 2 -4 -4 -3 -2 5 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Sep 2014 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA 0.28 Aug 0.20 58 78 84 78 78 83 86 89-999 D NCEP CFSv2 80 91 98 102 102 97 92-999-999 D NASA GMAO 46 61 70 76 79-999-999-999-999 D JMA 94 104 111 114 109 97 79 60 46 D SCRIPPS 16 9 8 14 22 27 38 62 89 D LDEO 31 33 37 40 43 44 45-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 66 82 92 91 84-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 40 29 15 0-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 79 86 92 97 97 93 85 77 68 D KMA SNU 39 34 33 24 13 1 -10 -24 -38 D ESSIC ICM 94 115 130 141 153 156 139 99 60 D COLA CCSM3 75 80 78 78 77-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 48 57 67 77 82 82 79 79 81 D SINTEX-F 59 81 99 111 101 82-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 74 91 104 112 121 128 133 142 147 D GFDL CM2.1 51 61 70 79 77 77 71 70 76 D CMC CANSIP 57 66 77 89 109 123 128 121 113 D GFDL CM2.5 50 63 76 84 83 74 66 59 53 S CPC MRKOV 24 18 12 6 2 -1 -5 -5 -6 S CDC LIM 60 85 102 102 95 77 67 54 43 S CPC CA 107 117 115 97 78 66 56 46 31 S CPC CCA 42 52 61 71 57 44 30 18 7 S CSU CLIPR 56 74 82 89 97 94 91 88 76 S UBC NNET 27 35 41 42 40 39 46 56 64 S FSU REGR 28 29 27 20 11 -1 -10 -16 -17 S UCLA-TCD 16 10 4 -1 -5 -4 -3 1 9 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Oct 2014 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS 0.28 Sep 0.45 54 59 58 63 70 75 88 109-999 D NCEP CFSv2 65 83 97 103 102 97 96-999-999 D NASA GMAO 61 68 72 73 70-999-999-999-999 D JMA 92 97 100 97 88 74 61 52 49 D SCRIPPS 32 27 25 25 32 59 105 148 162 D LDEO 45 39 37 40 46 51 58-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 69 81 86 84 81-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 36 20 5 -4-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 59 66 74 78 75 72 66 61 55 D KMA SNU 50 48 42 31 18 5 -9 -25 -42 D ESSIC ICM -10 -20 -14 2 14 15 8 -2 -12 D COLA CCSM3 71 75 74 73 72-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 58 73 86 96 95 89 82 80 80 D SINTEX-F 61 83 105 103 84 66-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 93 112 125 130 127 116 106 99 90 D GFDL CM2.1 83 99 110 111 112 105 94 87 79 D CMC CANSIP 70 77 82 86 87 82 69 50 26 D GFDL CM2.5 45 59 69 70 65 60 57 54 51 S CPC MRKOV 35 30 26 21 18 14 10 10 9 S CDC LIM 78 93 91 86 71 65 54 44 26 S CPC CA 128 125 105 86 74 66 57 46 37 S CPC CCA 80 82 83 85 91 98 104 85 66 S CSU CLIPR 52 55 59 62 66 67 69 70 67 S UBC NNET 82 90 89 81 69 70 74 74 74 S FSU REGR 47 48 45 39 29 21 16 17 22 S UCLA-TCD 34 28 22 17 11 10 11 13 23 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Nov 2014 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO 0.38 Oct 0.49 76 62 55 66 77 97 127 166-999 D NCEP CFSv2 96 117 132 135 129 122 116-999-999 D NASA GMAO 69 72 70 67 67-999-999-999-999 D JMA 91 93 90 82 70 60 55 54 57 D SCRIPPS 30 28 31 41 63 96 126 136 130 D LDEO 63 64 65 66 66 66 67-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 82 81 75 72 75-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 57 44 34 33-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 56 65 79 69 67 66 61 56 51 D KMA SNU 82 76 65 53 41 27 13 -1 -13 D ESSIC ICM 61 80 84 64 51 53 55 37 4 D COLA CCSM3 73 71 68 65 62-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 92 103 108 104 96 92 87 77 64 D SINTEX-F 89 114 110 86 69 57-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 105 131 140 134 119 105 96 84 71 D GFDL CM2.1 100 109 102 98 88 75 67 62 55 D CMC CANSIP 83 94 100 105 104 96 86 74 60 D GFDL CM2.5 58 68 70 64 59 57 55 53 55 S CPC MRKOV 39 32 26 19 15 11 7 7 8 S CDC LIM 93 89 80 64 57 43 33 18 13 S CPC CA 108 89 72 64 59 57 53 53 52 S CPC CCA 54 44 35 25 25 25 25 11 -4 S CSU CLIPR 53 55 55 55 55 56 58 59 59 S UBC NNET 60 59 53 47 49 52 54 54 53 S FSU REGR 61 66 63 55 42 32 26 26 29 S UCLA-TCD 43 38 33 27 20 19 19 23 31 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Dec 2014 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON 0.60 Nov 0.85 49 35 41 53 71 96 133 167-999 D NCEP CFSv2 97 100 101 98 94 93 89-999-999 D NASA GMAO 92 87 79 73 69-999-999-999-999 D JMA 92 89 82 70 60 55 54 57 63 D SCRIPPS 61 59 62 76 104 133 148 145 147 D LDEO 58 49 49 50 52 55 56-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 81 75 72 74 86-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 77 59 46 44-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 81 84 83 80 77 73 66 60 55 D KMA SNU 61 61 41 13 0 -6 -15 -20 -15 D COLA CCSM3 81 78 74 69 65-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 110 110 102 92 83 73 57 38 24 D SINTEX-F 92 90 77 60 46 37-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 99 110 120 123 129 129 117 90 61 D GFDL CM2.1 85 72 67 66 68 74 76 65 48 D CMC CANSIP 99 105 109 107 101 91 75 53 32 D GFDL CM2.5 72 72 65 59 56 53 50 51 57 S CPC MRKOV 52 41 30 19 13 8 2 3 3 S CDC LIM 78 65 47 38 28 23 16 15 14 S CPC CA 56 40 35 33 34 36 42 44 46 S CPC CCA 72 58 45 31 23 15 7 3 -2 S CSU CLIPR 74 69 63 57 51 48 46 43 42 S UBC NNET 90 80 68 64 63 61 58 54 59 S FSU REGR 111 107 94 75 56 41 32 29 30 S UCLA-TCD 73 61 50 37 27 23 23 26 32 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Jan 2015 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND 0.71 Dec 0.78 39 48 57 75 103 136 162 194-999 D NCEP CFSv2 71 71 70 72 74 65 48-999-999 D NASA GMAO 50 43 41 40 40-999-999-999-999 D JMA 85 77 64 54 50 52 57 63 71 D SCRIPPS 79 77 81 97 115 122 117 112 114 D LDEO 40 42 47 55 64 71 74-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 75 72 74 86-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 26 -3 -17 -8-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 68 65 63 62 58 54 45 40 35 D KMA SNU 64 62 59 53 46 40 34 28 24 D ESSIC ICM 106 115 115 90 59 27 0 -23 -51 D COLA CCSM3 62 61 65 67 78-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 54 43 30 25 21 16-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 62 77 92 99 98 86 62 36 19 D GFDL CM2.1 51 51 56 62 70 75 72 62 55 D CMC CANSIP 67 78 88 92 89 78 62 49 44 D GFDL CM2.5 42 36 32 31 30 29 32 39 46 S CPC MRKOV 53 38 23 9 2 -5 -12 -11 -9 S CDC LIM 49 31 23 17 17 14 12 11 18 S CPC CA 45 39 36 36 34 36 35 35 36 S CPC CCA 53 41 30 18 18 19 19 21 24 S CSU CLIPR 66 60 55 49 44 43 42 41 39 S UBC NNET 62 50 42 36 29 23 18 17 18 S FSU REGR 73 56 36 17 2 -9 -17 -22 -25 S UCLA-TCD 44 32 30 28 26 22 22 9 12 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Feb 2015 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ 0.72 Jan 0.53 70 74 86 99 111 113 120 126-999 D NCEP CFSv2 67 71 84 102 118 124 125-999-999 D NASA GMAO 44 55 67 78 88-999-999-999-999 D JMA 73 58 46 42 46 52 59 66 75 D SCRIPPS 56 58 69 83 86 76 64 59 51 D LDEO 46 54 65 80 96 109 117-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 64 81 107 132 150-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 45 21 10 11-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 46 45 45 45 43 42 39 38 34 D KMA SNU 53 48 42 36 31 27 24 24 29 D ESSIC ICM 28 37 76 125 167 183 185 175 156 D COLA CCSM3 55 64 76 90 113-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 77 82 87 97 106 105 100 94 93 D SINTEX-F 24 19 25 34 40 38-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 64 82 110 134 143 130 110 97 91 D GFDL CM2.1 52 54 58 60 63 61 58 55 58 D CMC CANSIP 57 76 96 112 125 131 129 125 122 D GFDL FLOR 24 24 28 31 34 42 54 68 81 S CPC MRKOV 39 24 8 -8 -13 -19 -24 -21 -18 S CDC LIM 34 28 23 22 18 12 9 14 19 S CPC CA 41 38 37 34 36 35 38 44 52 S CPC CCA 29 16 2 -11 -6 0 5 -6 -16 S CSU CLIPR 50 48 49 49 50 54 57 61 58 S UBC NNET 37 33 31 28 25 22 21 22 26 S FSU REGR 37 27 21 18 17 15 12 8 5 S UCLA-TCD 46 41 37 31 24 20 26 33 42 S UNB/CWC 42 40 39 33 26 24 24 22 24 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Mar 2015 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF 0.62 Feb 0.56 72 90 105 116 122 131 142 143-999 D NCEP CFSv2 82 101 128 161 191 207 217-999-999 D NASA GMAO 65 80 99 117 133-999-999-999-999 D JMA 49 39 36 40 45 50 56 65 72 D SCRIPPS 47 49 54 53 38 22 16 16 12 D LDEO 67 89 114 137 154 167 176-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 78 105 135 163 182-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 103 111 116 117-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 46 47 47 47 46 51 52 52 48 D KMA SNU 53 51 49 46 40 36 40 50 53 D ESSIC ICM 51 87 125 147 148 142 137 130 120 D COLA CCSM3 71 91 116 142 167-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 34 47 59 77 84 93-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 99 146 182 192 183 171 168 167 158 D GFDL CM2.1 52 71 94 114 126 131 136 140 143 D CMC CANSIP 68 90 110 125 127 121 117 120 123 D GFDL FLOR 30 34 37 42 51 66 83 98 112 S CPC MRKOV 33 19 6 -8 -12 -16 -19 -15 -11 S CDC LIM 34 32 34 30 20 18 27 36 37 S CPC CA 46 55 57 58 52 50 52 58 56 S CPC CCA -5 -22 -40 -57 -61 -66 -70 -72 -73 S CSU CLIPR 44 38 47 55 64 74 85 95 91 S UBC NNET 54 58 61 60 58 61 68 80 87 S FSU REGR 61 63 64 66 69 77 88 101 111 S UCLA-TCD 50 47 43 36 30 25 31 40 48 S UNB/CWC 51 53 54 50 45 47 56 56 57 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Apr 2015 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM 0.56 Mar 0.58 104 137 167 183 201 218 216 182-999 D NCEP CFSv2 81 110 144 167 177 184 192-999-999 D NASA GMAO 83 105 132 157 187-999-999-999-999 D JMA 52 54 56 57 60 66 71 75 74 D SCRIPPS 34 33 27 13 8 23 54 73 81 D LDEO 95 114 128 138 141 142 142-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 96 127 160 184 203-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 102 98 92 90-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 50 53 52 54 59 65 64 60 56 D KMA SNU 74 75 74 67 61 62 69 72 62 D ESSIC ICM 79 120 148 159 157 154 154 160 156 D COLA CCSM3 82 111 144 169 182-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 49 62 76 80 92 102-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 104 147 181 191 187 183 182 177 165 D GFDL CM2.1 80 99 118 129 137 141 147 148 145 D CMC CANSIP 90 120 148 171 184 191 193 187 169 D GFDL FLOR 79 83 88 100 119 140 158 172 173 S CPC MRKOV 32 24 16 8 7 6 5 7 10 S CDC LIM 33 36 31 22 23 37 55 60 56 S CPC CA 71 76 80 80 83 90 100 98 81 S CPC CCA 4 -5 -15 -24 -22 -20 -18 -19 -19 S CSU CLIPR 47 42 55 67 80 94 108 122 118 S UBC NNET 76 83 87 85 91 101 118 125 117 S FSU REGR 90 99 106 114 125 142 162 179 187 S UCLA-TCD 67 71 72 72 78 92 109 94 90 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued May 2015 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA 0.64 Apr 0.78 152 193 218 244 265 271 244 198-999 D NCEP CFSv2 150 198 241 266 277 279 279-999-999 D NASA GMAO 122 154 190 230 261-999-999-999-999 D JMA 72 72 73 76 83 90 94 93 87 D SCRIPPS 61 49 31 17 7 11 27 50 69 D LDEO 146 165 163 159 161 163 161-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 147 184 210 243 273-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 129 149 167 182-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 77 83 89 97 101 100 91 83 76 D KMA SNU 91 83 72 63 60 65 67 57 36 D ESSIC ICM 101 127 140 142 142 147 149 131 88 D COLA CCSM3 132 166 193 204 207-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 152 183 203 205 200 196 194 187 163 D SINTEX-F 62 72 77 96 121 138-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 145 172 174 160 153 156 154 146 136 D GFDL CM2.1 129 154 169 173 174 178 179 172 150 D CMC CANSIP 136 165 187 202 214 223 221 206 176 D GFDL FLOR 111 114 124 142 162 179 190 189 172 S CPC MRKOV 54 50 46 41 40 39 37 37 36 S CDC LIM 60 55 46 51 71 98 106 100 84 S CPC CA 76 87 91 94 99 107 105 86 66 S CPC CCA 52 51 49 48 59 70 81 66 50 S CSU CLIPR 76 75 86 97 108 118 127 137 128 S UBC NNET 91 94 92 98 111 130 137 124 101 S FSU REGR 137 158 179 200 220 234 234 216 178 S UCLA-TCD 98 98 94 86 77 64 61 63 66 S UNB/CWC 100 107 112 118 140 162 161 121 101 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Jun 2015 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM 0.80 May 1.03 156 178 200 226 240 226 191 154-999 D NCEP CFSv2 192 218 234 243 252 254 248-999-999 D NASA GMAO 159 178 206 238 266-999-999-999-999 D JMA 89 91 93 100 110 118 123 120 109 D SCRIPPS 79 74 71 65 67 81 111 133 144 D LDEO 164 157 138 135 138 139 134-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 148 163 188 215 241-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 170 189 203 209-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 105 117 128 133 129 119 106 97 86 D KMA SNU 114 99 94 96 104 109 97 73 43 D ESSIC ICM 172 181 180 179 184 188 184 153 94 D COLA CCSM3 191 213 216 208 202-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 182 205 213 212 212 212 206 189 167 D SINTEX-F 79 79 79 94 108 118-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 153 164 158 151 149 150 155 160 161 D GFDL CM2.1 177 205 219 225 232 231 216 179 145 D CMC CANSIP 153 170 177 181 188 193 190 172 141 D GFDL FLOR 132 143 161 181 197 208 206 187 160 S CPC MRKOV 67 63 59 54 51 47 44 41 37 S CDC LIM 76 71 83 110 143 155 147 125 99 S CPC CA 86 89 92 95 101 97 78 60 47 S CPC CCA 108 127 147 166 163 160 157 123 88 S CSU CLIPR 98 95 99 103 107 110 112 115 103 S UBC NNET 118 117 128 148 177 187 171 141 109 S FSU REGR 146 155 162 165 160 145 116 78 36 S UCLA-TCD 112 112 120 140 169 179 158 118 87 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Jul 2015 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 1.04 Jun 1.32 203 250 288 298 269 217 167 123-999 D NCEP CFSv2 245 277 290 298 308 307 293-999-999 D NASA GMAO 163 193 223 249 238-999-999-999-999 D JMA 120 128 141 155 166 168 158 137 106 D SCRIPPS 74 67 58 54 63 89 124 152 178 D LDEO 197 215 212 213 210 193 163-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 203 244 272 295 297-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 196 215 219 219-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 140 152 157 151 138 125 112 101 85 D KMA SNU 149 152 164 177 183 168 135 92 53 D ESSIC ICM 205 216 225 240 253 242 197 129 59 D COLA CCSM3 250 276 275 267 242-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 237 255 253 250 245 234 211 181 150 D SINTEX-F 89 106 126 139 134 115-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 178 197 204 207 204 196 183 163 145 D GFDL CM2.1 241 277 292 301 296 272 218 167 109 D CMC CANSIP 161 167 169 179 186 184 170 143 113 D GFDL FLOR 155 175 196 214 224 221 201 172 142 S CPC MRKOV 88 84 79 75 68 61 54 47 40 S CDC LIM 96 116 151 193 210 200 172 137 104 S CPC CA 91 94 98 105 102 82 65 54 45 S CPC CCA 94 136 178 220 204 189 173 142 112 S CSU CLIPR 134 135 138 140 143 137 130 124 103 S UBC NNET 137 152 175 206 218 196 162 123 94 S FSU REGR 154 164 174 182 183 173 150 119 84 S UCLA-TCD 125 139 171 206 215 192 146 103 80 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Aug 2015 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ 1.32 Jul 1.60 213 253 266 240 195 157 125 89-999 D NCEP CFSv2 282 314 334 351 360 344 303-999-999 D NASA GMAO 200 221 238 229 197-999-999-999-999 D JMA 154 171 188 197 196 179 147 102 57 D SCRIPPS 206 226 238 239 225 190 138 86 51 D LDEO 231 245 248 245 226 191 149-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 235 269 298 304 283-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 244 261 264 262-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 176 180 173 158 143 130 114 97 75 D KMA SNU 191 198 214 218 201 165 118 74 34 D IOCAS ICM 233 245 263 286 294 266 210 146 78 D COLA CCSM3 291 303 285 256 210-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 253 254 245 239 231 215 194 165 127 D SINTEX-F 133 161 191 185 157 117-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 236 257 262 257 241 217 183 142 97 D GFDL CM2.1 258 280 286 285 269 226 180 127 62 D CMC CANSIP 209 217 221 223 215 194 162 123 73 D GFDL FLOR 220 243 261 269 261 233 196 160 129 S CPC MRKOV 103 95 88 81 71 61 51 43 34 S CDC LIM 157 197 240 259 247 213 166 123 73 S CPC CA 106 113 121 117 94 72 54 37 19 S CPC CCA 197 227 258 288 237 187 136 100 64 S CSU CLIPR 159 159 157 156 154 142 129 117 94 S UBC NNET 174 191 214 220 205 173 131 93 51 S FSU REGR 209 230 249 258 255 240 217 188 157 S UCLA-TCD 158 139 117 92 74 59 56 52 49 S UNB/CWC 165 194 227 231 199 150 105 72 37 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Sep 2015 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA 1.66 Aug 2.06 217 229 214 178 144 122 95 64-999 D NCEP CFSv2 283 300 303 300 288 261 221-999-999 D NASA GMAO 235 253 240 197 148-999-999-999-999 D JMA 211 231 237 229 204 163 108 49 -6 D SCRIPPS 256 266 267 267 266 261 246 222 195 D LDEO 245 248 240 222 192 156 123-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 245 266 273 255 216-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 254 267 269 259-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 188 180 165 149 136 123 103 82 58 D KMA SNU 235 245 249 229 191 142 98 57 17 D IOCAS ICM 271 292 317 328 302 242 181 132 85 D COLA CCSM3 259 251 224 186 142-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 257 257 252 246 231 211 188 161 128 D SINTEX-F 167 190 190 173 136 97-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 256 276 281 271 241 202 159 110 58 D GFDL CM2.1 255 267 263 249 216 182 129 57 -16 D CMC CANSIP 240 240 234 221 198 165 125 65 -17 D GFDL FLOR 251 269 277 268 240 202 164 132 103 S CPC MRKOV 125 113 101 89 75 61 47 37 27 S CDC LIM 225 270 291 277 236 179 126 70 24 S CPC CA 159 169 163 132 99 70 45 19 -7 S CPC CCA 205 220 235 250 187 124 61 39 17 S CSU CLIPR 207 207 202 196 191 170 149 128 100 S UBC NNET 220 236 238 218 182 131 79 23 -24 S FSU REGR 255 277 291 288 265 224 173 123 83 S UCLA-TCD 194 174 149 121 98 83 74 63 53 S UNB/CWC 220 245 244 207 150 105 73 47 15 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Oct 2015 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS 1.98 Sep 2.28 233 222 188 155 127 94 58 15-999 D NCEP CFSv2 279 294 294 278 244 192 123-999-999 D NASA GMAO 267 259 219 172 138-999-999-999-999 D JMA 245 252 240 212 169 112 49 -11 -66 D SCRIPPS 259 259 258 254 245 220 188 157 140 D LDEO 266 265 245 212 176 144 118-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 262 272 246 198 141-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 280 299 294 273-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 184 167 151 139 125 109 85 61 35 D KMA SNU 255 258 241 206 161 120 83 48 17 D IOCAS ICM 209 211 210 181 111 27 -44 -86-114 D COLA CCSM3 248 230 191 150 115-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 283 271 254 237 222 196 154 100 53 D SINTEX-F 213 215 194 159 114 69-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 286 290 268 231 180 122 53 -17 -86 D GFDL CM2.1 270 273 259 227 192 143 78 17 -28 D CMC CANSIP 258 251 231 202 165 119 56 -27-109 D GFDL FLOR 259 268 261 235 198 162 131 102 77 S CPC MRKOV 147 128 109 90 70 51 31 20 8 S CDC LIM 274 295 279 237 178 122 62 13 -30 S CPC CA 213 210 177 139 104 73 42 11 -12 S CPC CCA 253 230 208 185 148 112 75 44 13 S CSU CLIPR 233 236 225 213 202 176 149 123 93 S UBC NNET 266 266 243 204 144 83 17 -37 -74 S FSU REGR 248 252 243 218 180 139 103 75 54 S UCLA-TCD 257 256 218 162 118 85 49 18 -6 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Nov 2015 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO 2.27 Oct 2.46 283 279 257 222 175 114 53-999-999 D NASA GMAO 249 218 186 168 145 121 89 58-999 D NCEP CFSv2 240 200 151 114 86-999-999-999-999 D JMA 246 235 207 166 110 47 -14 -69-121 D SCRIPPS 257 253 246 231 200 159 126 109 107 D LDEO 268 238 200 158 120 86 51-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 263 241 201 151 102-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 294 274 238 195-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 174 158 146 134 118 98 74 50 25 D KMA SNU 272 247 208 159 116 78 43 12 -13 D IOCAS ICM 309 322 303 259 202 138 68 -2 -50 D COLA CCSM3 240 200 155 119 93-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 270 239 208 186 155 113 61 20 -4 D SINTEX-F 211 193 162 117 62 14-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 306 302 273 226 172 110 47 -17 -63 D GFDL CM2.1 273 255 211 169 123 67 10 -34 -51 D CMC CANSIP 275 253 217 176 132 67 -8 -84-128 D GFDL FLOR 259 249 222 186 150 122 95 73 55 S CPC MRKOV 145 118 91 64 42 20 -2 -12 -22 S CDC LIM 298 275 228 167 112 55 12 -27 -38 S CPC CA 235 200 160 124 95 66 37 15 -2 S CPC CCA 252 211 170 129 93 58 22 14 7 S CSU CLIPR 241 238 218 199 179 151 124 96 69 S UBC NNET 270 252 214 159 105 48 0 -36 -46 S FSU REGR 266 258 233 194 155 123 100 87 81 S UCLA-TCD 184 156 124 97 80 71 61 51 45 S UNB/CWC 258 222 171 127 93 56 27 -2 -14 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Dec 2015 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON 2.57 Nov 2.96 285 272 236 181 113 41 -21-999-999 D NASA GMAO 265 238 208 187 157 126 91 56-999 D NCEP CFSv2 206 156 113 76 29-999-999-999-999 D JMA 242 215 174 119 54 -11 -70-124-171 D SCRIPPS 296 288 268 231 187 152 133 136 176 D LDEO 260 221 176 135 97 58 18-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 239 192 136 81 34-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 264 225 178 129-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 173 154 138 121 100 78 52 25 0 D KMA SNU 256 215 167 125 87 51 19 -8 -35 D IOCAS ICM 201 156 84 -6 -91-151-179-182-170 D COLA CCSM3 232 183 136 100 64-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 202 170 126 73 24 -16-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 278 250 215 182 136 87 36 -1 -23 D GFDL CM2.1 256 205 157 102 34 -41-102-136-147 D CMC CANSIP 268 232 187 138 065 -25-110-153-164 D GFDL FLOR 242 217 183 149 121 95 74 56 41 S CPC MRKOV 150 116 81 46 21 -3 -28 -36 -45 S CDC LIM 260 211 151 101 50 13 -20 -30 -39 S CPC CA 229 181 136 99 62 26 -1 -22 -39 S CPC CCA 244 189 133 78 33 -11 -56 -61 -65 S CSU CLIPR 240 212 184 156 128 103 77 52 31 S UBC NNET 278 238 179 120 58 5 -35 -50 -67 S FSU REGR 237 201 159 121 91 71 60 55 53 S UCLA-TCD -999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Jan 2016 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND 2.74 Dec 2.82 252 215 157 84 16 -37 -55-999-999 D NASA GMAO 226 194 153 116 76 44 19 13-999 D NCEP CFSv2 194 154 114 62 0-999-999-999-999 D JMA 218 178 124 60 -4 -63-118-164-206 D SCRIPPS 228 187 141 98 55 17 4 30 76 D LDEO 206 157 111 69 26 -17 -49-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 216 162 102 43 2-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 243 192 126 62-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 172 150 128 106 83 58 28 1 -23 D KMA SNU 198 146 100 60 22 -10 -37 -65 -97 D IOCAS ICM 249 196 119 8 -92-165-199-214-222 D COLA CCSM3 203 157 117 80 29-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 188 141 99 60 17 -20 -42 -56 -71 D SINTEX-F 235 199 156 87 15 -44 -70 -78 -73 D GFDL CM2.1 219 173 115 39 -37 -95-122-128-127 D CMC CANSIP 226 184 126 042 -51-127-156-155-152 D GFDL FLOR 205 173 142 116 92 72 55 42 29 S CPC MRKOV 134 92 51 9 -14 -38 -61 -66 -71 S CDC LIM 204 144 94 44 6 -30 -47 -64 -74 S CPC CA 182 138 103 67 29 1 -22 -37 -49 S CPC CCA 185 132 78 25 -1 -27 -53 -70 -88 S CSU CLIPR 191 146 109 71 34 14 -5 -25 -36 S UBC NNET 218 162 105 42 -13 -56 -69 -85-100 S FSU REGR 181 140 104 75 50 27 5 -16 -35 S UCLA-TCD 241 205 166 123 84 58 47 40 33 S UNB/CWC -999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Feb 2016 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ 2.79 Jan 2.60 204 155 90 19 -36 -56 -49-999-999 D NASA GMAO 135 112 90 71 55 42 31 22-999 D NCEP CFSv2 176 138 82 10 -58-999-999-999-999 D JMA 183 131 68 4 -55-109-153-192-223 D SCRIPPS 196 156 123 93 66 50 63 107 144 D LDEO 180 138 101 68 35 13 3-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 173 117 61 14 -15-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 236 192 120 45-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 163 134 108 84 59 32 2 -23 -45 D KMA SNU 176 128 94 63 38 17 -2 -21 -35 D IOCAS ICM 193 139 86 35 -3 -17 -17 -16 -13 D COLA CCSM4 168 116 46 -37-108-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 140 89 49 8 -22 -34 -38 -43 -58 D SINTEX-F 122 74 22 -19 -51 -72-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 189 124 42 -43-105-119 -98 -66 -44 D GFDL CM2.1 185 130 57 -28 -98-132-137-137-139 D CMC CANSIP 196 144 70 -20-105-145-149-144-146 D GFDL FLOR 164 136 113 91 72 57 44 33 25 S CPC MRKOV 115 73 31 -10 -32 -53 -74 -78 -81 S CDC LIM 147 94 40 -2 -41 -63 -87-104-122 S CPC CA 141 109 73 31 -3 -25 -40 -51 -62 S CPC CCA 119 87 55 23 6 -11 -28 -40 -52 S CSU CLIPR 141 82 46 11 -25 -37 -48 -60 -64 S UBC NNET 159 109 56 9 -30 -47 -62 -74 -90 S FSU REGR 187 151 115 85 61 43 29 20 13 S UCLA-TCD 220 189 155 115 77 52 41 36 32 S UNB/CWC -999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Mar 2016 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF 2.61 Feb 2.40 142 83 11 -50 -76 -79 -76-999-999 D NASA GMAO 149 123 108 100 96 101 114 122-999 D NCEP CFSv2 148 89 15 -55 -96-999-999-999-999 D JMA 132 67 2 -59-115-162-204-236-264 D SCRIPPS 173 143 123 110 107 127 171 212 232 D LDEO 130 92 48 5 -23 -36 -40-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 89 26 -17 -40 -44-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 156 81 2 -54-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 134 103 76 50 22 -3 -28 -50 -69 D KMA SNU 132 98 71 50 35 21 7 -3 -5 D IOCAS ICM 150 115 85 62 53 50 51 56 71 D COLA CCSM4 125 72 6 -53 -92-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 65 24 -13 -39 -64 -87-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 120 31 -64-140-170-162-135-109 -90 D GFDL CM2.1 124 62 -8 -72-104-110-107-108-107 D CMC CANSIP 139 60 -32-107-135-137-139-148-157 D GFDL FLOR 118 92 69 50 34 21 9 0 -4 S CPC MRKOV 92 54 16 -22 -39 -56 -73 -74 -75 S CDC LIM 101 50 11 -24 -46 -67 -81 -96-103 S CPC CA 120 85 42 2 -30 -54 -71 -85-101 S CPC CCA 93 46 -2 -49 -53 -57 -61 -62 -64 S CSU CLIPR 105 37 7 -24 -54 -60 -65 -71 -70 S UBC NNET 127 70 23 -15 -30 -48 -63 -82 -89 S FSU REGR 148 120 97 79 64 54 47 42 38 S UCLA-TCD 180 142 102 58 22 -1 -9 -11 -10 S UNB/CWC -999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Apr 2016 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM 2.23 Mar 1.68 27 -55-120-146-139-126-120-999-999 D NASA GMAO 57 -20 -86-121-140-157-177-192-999 D NCEP CFSv2 82 19 -36 -69 -87-999-999-999-999 D JMA -13 -77-136-182-212-228-236-238-235 D SCRIPPS 111 79 56 47 51 64 59 55 48 D LDEO 83 49 22 2 -12 -20 -26-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 5 -47 -64 -54 -43-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 61 -28 -95-115-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 100 71 44 16 -10 -31 -55 -74 -90 D KMA SNU 98 74 58 46 35 21 11 8 7 D IOCAS ICM 40 -42-106-140-158-180-204-217-206 D COLA CCSM4 59 11 -15 -17 -16 -31 -53 -71 -76 D SINTEX-F 35 -6 -25 -32 -31 -45-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 32 -51-115-130-115 -98 -86 -76 -65 D GFDL CM2.1 51 -19 -84-116-123-121-126-129-127 D CMC CANSIP 94 23 -41 -64 -65 -65 -67 -67 -67 D GFDL FLOR 92 73 57 44 34 26 20 17 14 S CPC MRKOV 70 40 9 -21 -34 -46 -59 -59 -58 S CDC LIM 58 16 -23 -44 -60 -71 -81 -85 -79 S CPC CA 102 57 14 -19 -43 -59 -71 -86-102 S CPC CCA 54 18 -19 -55 -78-101-124-115-106 S CSU CLIPR 53 -4 -23 -43 -62 -59 -56 -53 -51 S UBC NNET 72 30 -4 -19 -34 -44 -57 -61 -61 S FSU REGR 115 92 75 62 54 48 42 37 32 S UCLA-TCD 117 88 56 22 -8 -25 -29 -26 -20 S UNB/CWC -999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued May 2016 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA 1.72 Apr 1.09 -113-176-186-171-154-141-124-999-999 D NASA GMAO -28 -92-110-115-118-125-138-138-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -40 -84-107-122-131-999-999-999-999 D JMA -62-121-169-202-220-230-234-232-216 D SCRIPPS 83 68 63 67 73 52 24 -2 -4 D LDEO -76-107 -93 -78 -70 -68 -68-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -48 -68 -57 -47 -46-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -47-107-131-135-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 53 24 -5 -29 -49 -64 -82 -95-106 D KMA SNU 33 16 5 -6 -24 -39 -45 -46 -45 D IOCAS ICM -46-100-126-141-155-168-171-162-137 D COLA CCSM4 -40 -84-106-110-112-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -4 -40 -56 -59 -68 -82 -98-105-101 D SINTEX-F 9 -13 -35 -50 -70 -93-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -116-165-153-119 -83 -62 -51 -48 -44 D GFDL CM2.1 -28 -83-111-124-130-139-139-125-111 D CMC CANSIP -63-112-120-105 -96 -96 -99 -99 -92 D GFDL FLOR 34 19 6 -5 -14 -20 -22 -21 -24 S CPC MRKOV 47 23 -1 -25 -34 -43 -52 -51 -49 S CDC LIM 23 -15 -34 -44 -48 -54 -54 -48 -38 S CPC CA 68 31 2 -22 -40 -53 -68 -89 -91 S CPC CCA 41 25 8 -8 -10 -11 -13 -14 -15 S CSU CLIPR 29 -11 -20 -29 -38 -35 -33 -30 -33 S UBC NNET 20 -15 -29 -45 -57 -71 -76 -76 -68 S FSU REGR 70 51 38 30 24 19 15 13 10 S UCLA-TCD 76 55 33 10 -10 -21 -24 -17 -6 S UNB/CWC -999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Jun 2016 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM 1.02 May 0.30 -61 -64 -52 -46 -44 -39 -25-999-999 D NASA GMAO -47 -81 -96-104-107-116-115 -95-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -65 -78 -88 -94-108-999-999-999-999 D JMA -53-110-159-193-214-225-230-227-211 D SCRIPPS 50 44 45 46 23 2 -17 -13 -14 D LDEO -112-119 -97 -77 -67 -63 -61-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -55 -50 -39 -35 -40-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -47 -71 -77 -94-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -18 -47 -69 -84 -98-107-116-122-128 D KMA SNU 5 -3 -13 -31 -48 -56 -57 -55 -53 D IOCAS ICM -76-107-125-139-150-154-146-123 -93 D COLA CCSM4 -43 -74 -80 -78 -70-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -34 -39 -43 -47 -61 -75 -91 -94 -84 D SINTEX-F -3 -22 -29 -41 -57 -80-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -127-127 -95 -66 -51 -40 -34 -25 -16 D GFDL CM2.1 -59 -81 -87 -90 -90 -85 -77 -72 -53 D CMC CANSIP -132-147-126-110-106-104 -99 -90 -74 D GFDL FLOR -1 -15 -28 -40 -48 -49 -47 -46 -48 S CPC MRKOV 19 1 -17 -35 -41 -47 -53 -51 -49 S CDC LIM -18 -33 -37 -36 -39 -39 -35 -27 -16 S CPC CA 6 -31 -61 -84 -98-111-126-119 -93 S CPC CCA -12 -24 -36 -48 -51 -54 -57 -47 -37 S CSU CLIPR -16 -39 -41 -44 -46 -42 -37 -33 -37 S UBC NNET -49 -58 -71 -82-100-107-107 -95 -79 S FSU REGR 15 -1 -13 -21 -27 -30 -30 -30 -29 S UCLA-TCD -999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999-999 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Jul 2016 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 0.42 Jun-0.12 -41 -21 -11 -6 -2 7 21-999-999 D NASA GMAO -33 -57 -72 -81 -87 -83 -62 -32-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -77 -71 -57 -59 -78-999-999-999-999 D JMA -109-142-168-185-190-185-169-146-120 D SCRIPPS 17 19 18 1 -15 -24 -15 -11 -11 D LDEO -91 -93 -81 -71 -69 -68 -61-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -37 -28 -21 -22 -18-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -74 -84 -90-104-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -65 -84 -94-100-106-109-116-121-125 D KMA SNU -17 -32 -57 -79 -90 -93 -88 -81 -81 D IOCAS ICM -39 -53 -74 -99-116-116 -97 -68 -40 D COLA CCSM4 -40 -41 -40 -33 -28-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -2 5 -2 -11 -18 -19 -19 -12 -7 D SINTEX-F -12 -22 -26 -34 -48 -64-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -105-104 -89 -74 -62 -55 -51 -45 -36 D GFDL CM2.1 -61 -72 -68 -61 -58 -53 -40 -15 11 D CMC CANSIP -90 -74 -53 -46 -46 -51 -58 -56 -43 D GFDL FLOR -21 -30 -39 -43 -42 -37 -35 -36 -35 S CPC MRKOV 3 -9 -20 -32 -35 -38 -41 -38 -35 S CDC LIM -19 -20 -17 -20 -20 -19 -14 -8 -5 S CPC CA -59 -91-115-131-142-149-129 -90 -59 S CPC CCA -70 -73 -76 -79 -76 -72 -69 -51 -33 S CSU CLIPR -23 -29 -25 -20 -16 -14 -11 -9 -16 S UBC NNET -36 -47 -55 -69 -75 -76 -68 -57 -50 S FSU REGR -12 -21 -27 -32 -38 -45 -52 -60 -68 S UCLA-TCD -24 -29 -32 -35 -36 -36 -33 -24 -10 S UNB/CWC -29 -41 -50 -60 -65 -71 -59 -56,-37 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Aug 2016 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ-0.10 Jul-0.49 -58 -45 -41 -41 -35 -21 -2-999-999 D NASA GMAO -46 -36 -39 -56 -60 -47 -21 1-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -88 -79 -81-103-127-999-999-999-999 D JMA -112-135-150-156-153-143-128-107 -86 D SCRIPPS 4 6 -5 -11 -10 4 10 5 -1 D LDEO -75 -69 -57 -56 -56 -50 -35-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -25 -15 -10 -11 -8-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -72 -83 -92 -96-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -80 -89 -89 -87 -88 -92 -99-103-104 D KMA SNU -63 -93-122-137-139-127-112-106-107 D IOCAS ICM -45 -41 -48 -62 -64 -55 -38 -20 -5 D COLA CCSM4 -19 -10 -7 -4 0-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -21 -17 -19 -24 -27 -25 -21 -18 -16 D SINTEX-F -9 -15 -28 -36 -48 -47-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -69 -72 -62 -50 -39 -31 -25 -22 -25 D GFDL CM2.1 -61 -64 -61 -53 -40 -34 -19 -1 25 D CMC CANSIP -80 -83 -71 -53 -40 -31 -22 -7 12 D GFDL FLOR -39 -47 -51 -49 -43 -40 -39 -37 -34 S CPC MRKOV -26 -29 -33 -37 -35 -34 -32 -28 -25 S CDC LIM -22 -17 -19 -15 -11 -5 0 3 -3 S CPC CA -90-110-125-131-134-110 -70 -39 -27 S CPC CCA -59 -75 -92-108 -93 -78 -63 -43 -22 S CSU CLIPR -44 -41 -25 -10 6 12 18 24 16 S UBC NNET -67 -78 -95-103 -99 -84 -66 -50 -38 S FSU REGR -49 -63 -78 -88 -94 -94 -90 -85 -80 S UCLA-TCD -55 -55 -66 -71 -75 -62 -41 -31 -20 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Sep 2016 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA-0.38 Aug-0.54 -38 -21 -15 -07 9 23 38-999-999 D NASA GMAO -62 -60 -67 -58 -34 -4 19 39-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -68 -67 -82-104-100-999-999-999-999 D JMA -117-128-133-132-125-113 -96 -76 -58 D SCRIPPS -14 -16 -16 -7 11 21 14 -3 -19 D LDEO -61 -55 -53 -52 -46 -33 -18-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -23 -11 -5 -1 2-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -54 -53 -53 -45-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -77 -76 -71 -70 -73 -79 -86 -88 -87 D KMA SNU -89-112-124-124-114 -99 -93 -94 -97 D IOCAS ICM -19 -16 -30 -35 -29 -15 -2 9 14 D COLA CCSM4 -61 -58 -62 -65 -61-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -44 -39 -37 -32 -23 -16 -10 -6 4 D SINTEX-F -14 -25 -42 -60 -62 -53-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -69 -55 -42 -33 -24 -16 -11 -7 -4 D GFDL CM2.1 -42 -34 -23 -11 -6 8 22 42 65 D CMC CANSIP -67 -56 -47 -41 -38 -32 -19 -1 25 D GFDL FLOR -51 -53 -49 -42 -37 -35 -32 -28 -24 S CPC MRKOV -40 -37 -35 -32 -27 -23 -18 -15 -11 S CDC LIM -44 -46 -37 -29 -19 -11 -5 -11 -22 S CPC CA -68 -77 -82 -91 -78 -51 -27 -15 -17 S CPC CCA -77 -79 -81 -83 -68 -52 -37 -25 -14 S CSU CLIPR -37 -29 -9 11 31 38 44 51 42 S UBC NNET -75 -95-104-100 -82 -60 -38 -21 -6 S FSU REGR -51 -57 -60 -61 -60 -59 -57 -53 -50 S UCLA-TCD -51 -54 -57 -60 -48 -29 -11 -18 -13 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Oct 2016 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS-0.54 Sep-0.59 -64 -53 -39 -14 9 31 47-999-999 D NASA GMAO -88-101-101 -73 -33 -5 19 35-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -61 -76 -89 -85 -60-999-999-999-999 D JMA -114-117-116-112-103 -88 -70 -51 -36 D SCRIPPS -28 -18 -1 24 37 34 19 -3 -27 D LDEO -59 -58 -57 -44 -28 -11 5-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -31 -24 -13 1 14-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -69 -66 -50 -29-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -61 -58 -55 -56 -62 -67 -73 -71 -70 D KMA SNU -84 -89 -82 -68 -53 -46 -45 -48 -55 D IOCAS ICM -43 -51 -60 -54 -33 -9 9 16 18 D COLA CCSM4 -52 -48 -43 -30 -18-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -51 -41 -28 -17 -13 -10 -3 10 23 D SINTEX-F -21 -33 -46 -47 -37 -34-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -78 -79 -69 -39 -5 25 48 71 94 D GFDL CM2.1 -41 -29 -13 -6 9 27 53 83 105 D CMC CANSIP -64 -54 -40 -21 -5 13 32 55 77 D GFDL FLOR -62 -56 -47 -39 -35 -31 -26 -22 -21 S CPC MRKOV -26 -19 -13 -6 -2 3 7 7 8 S CDC LIM -63 -53 -43 -28 -13 1 5 -5 -14 S CPC CA -43 -50 -61 -53 -32 -12 -1 0 -2 S CPC CCA -65 -59 -52 -46 -32 -17 -3 -14 -24 S CSU CLIPR -36 -25 -8 9 26 33 40 47 41 S UBC NNET -98-104 -99 -79 -54 -26 2 19 37 S FSU REGR -16 1 19 35 46 52 54 56 57 S UCLA-TCD -42 -29 -15 -2 6 8 9 13 23 S UNB/CWC -64 -67 -69 -52 -33 -11 -3 -9 -15 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Nov 2016 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO-0.62 Oct-0.72 -106 -86 -51 -21 4 24 53-999-999 D NASA GMAO -60 -60 -59 -41 -14 6 19 32-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -94-101 -91 -64 -39-999-999-999-999 D JMA -114-112-108-100 -85 -67 -49 -34 -23 D SCRIPPS -39 -18 13 32 37 35 29 11 -24 D LDEO -65 -67 -62 -51 -39 -28 -17-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -37 -21 -4 8 19-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -58 -37 -4 24-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -47 -43 -43 -46 -51 -54 -58 -56 -47 D KMA SNU -76 -73 -61 -47 -39 -39 -42 -46 -56 D IOCAS ICM -55 -51 -44 -29 -11 1 5 5 4 D COLA CCSM4 -76 -64 -52 -41 -26-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -59 -53 -50 -43 -36 -27 -18 -8 -2 D SINTEX-F -31 -59 -72 -70 -63 -46-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -74 -59 -32 -3 30 55 78 104 120 D GFDL CM2.1 -36 -21 -18 -10 4 25 46 59 67 D CMC CANSIP -79 -65 -48 -27 -6 20 49 79 104 D GFDL FLOR -67 -58 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -28 -25 S CPC MRKOV -19 -7 4 16 19 23 26 23 21 S CDC LIM -43 -30 -16 1 14 15 02 -10 -12 S CPC CA -31 -31 -27 -12 4 15 17 16 16 S CPC CCA -76 -65 -55 -44 -32 -20 -8 -6 -4 S CSU CLIPR -37 -20 -4 13 29 36 44 51 46 S UBC NNET -88 -94 -87 -68 -43 -17 6 26 43 S FSU REGR -58 -42 -26 -12 -4 1 5 8 9 S UCLA-TCD -60 -53 -42 -22 -5 2 0 -12 -11 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Dec 2016 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON-0.63 Nov-0.55 -85 -57 -25 5 25 53 91-999-999 D NASA GMAO -49 -47 -45 -38 -33 -26 -14 -4-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -80 -73 -53 -37 -30-999-999-999-999 D JMA -2 30 52 61 60 52 34 0 -33 D LDEO -41 -32 -19 -7 2 10 20-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -22 -7 6 15 26-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -6 19 42 64-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -24 -21 -22 -25 -29 -30 -31 -24 -16 D KMA SNU -35 -28 -14 -5 -2 -4 -8 -15 -28 D IOCAS ICM -22 -5 6 13 17 16 6 -8 -20 D COLA CCSM4 -59 -43 -29 -15 2-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -50 -48 -45 -30 -15 5 26 40 51 D SINTEX-F -39 -35 -37 -37 -33 -23-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -27 -10 13 33 47 59 71 80 81 D GFDL CM2.1 -22 -18 -4 12 31 48 57 61 63 D CMC CANSIP -42 -31 -13 9 33 60 86 105 115 D GFDL FLOR -45 -40 -39 -37 -33 -31 -30 -28 -25 S CPC MRKOV -25 -11 3 17 21 25 30 27 24 S CDC LIM -47 -29 -6 14 27 25 25 36 45 S CPC CA 24 26 33 42 42 32 17 10 6 S CPC CCA -50 -38 -25 -13 -23 -32 -42 -42 -41 S CSU CLIPR -32 -21 -5 12 28 32 37 41 40 S UBC NNET -49 -34 -15 6 26 43 58 65 76 S FSU REGR -14 04 0 -2 -6 -9 -10 -11 -14 S UCLA-TCD -39 -20 -8 4 11 8 -1 -3 -5 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Jan 2017 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND-0.57 Dec-0.42 -26 -3 20 44 74 110 135-999-999 D NASA GMAO -7 13 23 30 33 32 24 24-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -54 -44 -34 -31 -33-999-999-999-999 D JMA -51 -46 -37 -24 -10 3 13 18 17 D SCRIPPS 11 17 8 -11 -35 -52 -67 -65 -47 D LDEO -29 -7 14 30 42 52 60-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 1 14 25 40 60-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 22 45 61 80-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -16 -15 -15 -16 -16 -10 -2 8 15 D KMA SNU -23 -8 3 8 9 8 6 -3 -10 D IOCAS ICM 4 17 27 36 41 43 42 40 36 D COLA CCSM4 -31 -19 -7 5 21-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -16 -6 2 13 28 43 49 52 51 D SINTEX-F -13 -15 -26 -37 -33 -17-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 5 25 41 47 52 55 56 57 54 D GFDL CM2.1 -5 14 31 53 83 112 132 143 151 D CMC CANSIP -14 0 15 35 57 76 87 91 95 D GFDL FLOR -31 -32 -32 -30 -30 -30 -30 -30 -28 S CPC MRKOV -31 -16 -4 6 11 14 14 12 8 S CDC LIM -27 -10 2 9 6 6 19 28 30 S CPC CA 20 27 36 32 12 -13 -25 -33 -42 S CPC CCA -113 -98 -83 -68 -57 -45 -34 -37 -39 S CSU CLIPR -9 8 25 41 58 62 67 71 61 S UBC NNET -21 -6 10 25 39 53 62 73 82 S FSU REGR -5 -3 -6 -12 -16 -19 -21 -26 -33 S UCLA-TCD -16 -1 11 11 5 -7 -6 -14 -15 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Feb 2017 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND-0.43 Jan-0.32 19 46 66 92 127 154 165-999-999 D NASA GMAO 12 48 73 88 96 107 108 111-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -5 8 10 4 -7-999-999-999-999 D JMA 8 4 -11 -34 -54 -72 -73 -61 -29 D LDEO 24 38 45 56 64 74 83-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 18 38 59 82 102-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 52 75 93 106-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -32 -29 -25 -16 -5 10 21 30 32 D KMA SNU 33 49 63 71 79 86 89 89 91 D IOCAS ICM 18 35 49 59 67 71 73 71 69 D COLA CCSM4 15 38 49 67 90-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 30 54 71 89 103 108 108 111 116 D SINTEX-F -17 -19 -25 -25 -15 4-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 10 41 73 105 136 155 154 144 137 D GFDL CM2.1 23 32 40 55 70 84 95 106 119 D CMC CANSIP -7 21 49 80 107 127 136 143 151 D GFDL FLOR -32 -32 -32 -33 -35 -38 -40 -41 -39 S CPC MRKOV -26 -14 -6 -2 0 -2 -5 -9 -13 S CDC LIM -15 -10 -09 -13 -14 -03 1 3 -3 S CPC CA 29 44 45 34 17 11 6 -2 -12 S CPC CCA -11 -7 -3 1 -7 -16 -24 -15 -7 S CSU CLIPR 6 25 40 55 70 72 74 76 63 S UBC NNET -12 2 15 28 39 46 56 65 75 S FSU REGR -13 -5 2 9 17 23 27 28 26 S UCLA-TCD 8 24 24 16 6 7 7 15 24 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Mar 2017 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF-0.20 Feb 0.14 28 43 66 94 117 133 146-999-999 D NASA GMAO 34 57 72 76 74 70 76 83-999 D NCEP CFSv2 44 57 59 57 54-999-999-999-999 D JMA 72 84 104 134 162 188 207 212 191 D SAUDI-KAU 21 15 -2 -22 -45 -57 -60 -46 -21 D LDEO 55 76 89 108 125 138 152-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 39 62 82 100 111-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 67 88 112 130-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -3 0 13 30 45 56 61 62 57 D KMA SNU 32 56 65 73 80 82 79 78 82 D IOCAS ICM 56 73 88 107 126 139 146 152 155 D COLA CCSM4 32 57 91 131 164-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 7 0 -8 15 37 74-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 76 106 132 153 158 141 119 102 88 D GFDL CM2.1 56 69 89 111 127 138 152 173 188 D CMC CANSIP 52 72 90 104 111 113 118 125 132 D GFDL FLOR -6 -7 -9 -12 -15 -16 -17 -15 -7 S CPC MRKOV 15 17 11 11 25 32 27 16 5 S CPC CA 22 33 45 56 62 69 75 78 82 S CSU CLIPR 31 40 51 63 74 74 74 74 62 S UBC NNET 21 27 34 42 45 49 54 61 61 S FSU REGR 54 72 89 104 118 129 137 138 130 S UCLA-TCD 33 38 36 30 34 36 37 9 -2 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Apr 2017 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM-0.03 Mar 0.10 23 46 71 94 111 125 133-999-999 D NASA GMAO 50 76 83 79 73 78 93 101-999 D NCEP CFSv2 67 77 80 81 93-999-999-999-999 D JMA 51 44 35 26 17 5 -8 -22 -38 D SCRIPPS 78 97 118 136 148 164 184 194 179 D SAUDI-KAU 27 24 12 -4 -16 -24 -29 -27 -18 D LDEO 38 43 58 75 90 104 117-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 43 63 83 92 108-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 37 40 45 57-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 5 19 40 60 72 79 77 71 60 D KMA SNU 62 75 86 93 94 91 89 93 94 D IOCAS ICM 56 70 74 73 71 71 73 74 75 D COLA CCSM4 36 60 77 94 107-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 75 102 129 152 167 176 182 188 184 D SINTEX-F 14 30 60 85 106 119-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 76 116 151 163 154 144 143 137 119 D GFDL CM2.1 69 83 97 105 109 117 133 147 147 D CMC CANSIP 66 97 129 155 177 197 210 211 196 D GFDL FLOR -13 -16 -21 -26 -31 -36 -36 -30 -22 S CPC MRKOV 34 37 42 58 74 80 79 71 55 S CPC CA 41 50 58 67 77 87 97 90 83 S CSU CLIPR 31 41 51 62 72 73 75 76 64 S UBC NNET 0 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -5 -8 S FSU REGR 61 83 98 109 115 118 117 110 98 S UCLA-TCD 35 36 30 33 35 38 37 2 -14 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued May 2017 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA 0.20 Apr 0.32 70 86 99 109 121 128 132-999-999 D NASA GMAO 50 45 39 35 34 33 27 17-999 D NCEP CFSv2 65 70 71 83 98-999-999-999-999 D JMA 57 80 95 97 92 89 90 87 81 D BCC_CSM11m 58 76 87 89 92 101 119 132 130 D SAUDI-KAU 50 44 32 25 24 19 12 3 3 D LDEO 30 15 9 16 23 30 34-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 59 70 73 78 89-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 45 46 50 59-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 28 46 68 82 89 89 81 70 61 D KMA SNU 69 88 103 111 115 118 124 123 113 D IOCAS ICM 41 42 40 36 32 30 32 39 53 D COLA CCSM4 54 67 79 88 95-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 60 75 89 100 110 125 132 130 115 D SINTEX-F 26 43 51 59 55 46-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 63 80 92 86 75 62 54 44 33 D GFDL CM2.1 85 95 100 106 119 137 150 153 138 D CMC CANSIP 59 82 97 104 115 131 146 152 146 D GFDL FLOR 45 36 27 17 5 -8 -22 -38 -61 D SCRIPPS -10 -15 -20 -24 -27 -27 -21 -14 -10 S CPC MRKOV 56 65 81 97 106 108 102 86 59 S CPC CA 62 62 63 63 74 85 96 81 65 S CSU CLIPR 58 71 76 82 87 84 82 79 67 S UBC NNET 8 0 -3 -7 -9 -11 -11 -13 -13 S FSU REGR 69 83 93 99 100 97 90 80 70 S UCLA-TCD 39 37 41 45 49 46 38 25 13 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Jun 2017 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM 0.30 May 0.46 21 12 10 13 17 18 20-999-999 D NASA GMAO 58 55 44 37 35 23 0 -10-999 D NCEP CFSv2 27 21 23 25 27-999-999-999-999 D JMA 35 41 55 67 75 82 87 88 78 D BCC_CSM11m 71 83 89 93 95 100 105 106 99 D SAUDI-KAU 41 28 20 18 10 0 -7 -4 4 D LDEO -26 -51 -50 -38 -32 -32 -30-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 32 25 28 35 44-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 14 8 9 18-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 46 63 78 87 86 81 70 63 54 D KMA SNU 65 72 82 84 83 85 91 92 86 D IOCAS ICM 30 6 -14 -21 -26 -32 -29 -14 6 D COLA CCSM4 26 25 24 21 19-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 33 35 38 43 51 59 59 49 37 D SINTEX-F 16 23 19 5 1 -16-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 26 21 18 15 17 23 22 17 16 D GFDL CM2.1 65 63 62 65 71 76 76 60 51 D CMC CANSIP 07 0 -2 -4 -4 2 10 20 32 D GFDL FLOR 37 29 18 6 -7 -21 -38 -61 -85 D SCRIPPS -12 -17 -22 -25 -25 -20 -13 -10 -11 S CPC MRKOV 59 69 82 91 96 93 81 59 38 S CPC CA 29 43 58 72 65 57 50 40 30 S CSU CLIPR 54 58 58 57 57 56 54 53 46 S UBC NNET 21 16 14 13 11 10 11 10 7 S FSU REGR 70 73 74 73 70 66 61 54 47 S UCLA-TCD 27 26 23 22 18 11 0 -4 -10 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Jul 2017 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 0.44 Jun 0.55 27 32 44 51 54 52 55-999-999 D NASA GMAO 39 27 21 12 -3 -26 -33 -17-999 D NCEP CFSv2 10 8 8 7 5-999-999-999-999 D JMA 47 56 71 81 90 89 79 58 43 D BCC_CSM11m 18 10 8 4 -2 -1 10 28 42 D SAUDI-KAU 24 17 14 4 -4 -2 12 23 31 D LDEO -15 -27 -20 -17 -17 -16 -8-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 40 35 35 37 36-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 15 8 10 13-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 51 62 72 74 69 63 57 51 43 D KMA SNU 73 66 60 59 64 66 64 60 58 D IOCAS ICM 53 31 8 -7 -15 -18 -9 6 18 D COLA CCSM4 14 -1 -9 -12 -18-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 30 26 30 34 39 41 37 25 11 D SINTEX-F 2 -2 -3 -13 -32 -52-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 1 -9 -8 -4 0 -1 -1 6 14 D GFDL CM2.1 71 75 84 92 95 94 78 72 67 D CMC CANSIP 19 21 24 28 33 35 36 37 38 D GFDL FLOR -8 -9 -10 -7 -1 6 8 5 31 S CPC MRKOV 54 65 77 84 84 74 56 39 29 S CPC CA 27 40 53 66 57 47 38 29 19 S CSU CLIPR 35 25 25 24 24 28 33 37 37 S UBC NNET 44 42 40 38 36 36 32 22 4 S FSU REGR 45 45 44 41 36 31 26 22 19 S UCLA-TCD 23 17 16 12 6 -4 -6 -9 -5 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Aug 2017 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ 0.47 Jul 0.39 -41 -36 -25 -16 -7 4 14-999-999 D NASA GMAO 10 -13 -27 -44 -62 -66 -48 -14-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -33 -33 -33 -36 -36-999-999-999-999 D JMA 31 49 69 75 76 75 73 64 54 D BCC_CSM11m -9 -10 -11 -17 -14 0 20 35 42 D SAUDI-KAU 29 26 15 8 12 32 47 54 60 D LDEO -24 -18 -12 -14 -15 -10 3-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -3 2 11 17 20-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -47 -47 -41 -30-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 21 29 34 35 31 30 25 21 14 D KMA SNU -03 -10 -20 -18 -11 -1 10 19 28 D IOCAS ICM -3 -31 -54 -67 -73 -69 -47 -22 0 D COLA CCSM4 -25 -49 -56 -61 -61-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 8 16 26 30 25 9 -7 -16 -18 D SINTEX-F 18 17 14 -2 -19 -27-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -44 -55 -53 -44 -22 -1 16 25 31 D GFDL CM2.1 19 16 15 15 16 11 16 26 43 D CMC CANSIP -20 -12 -8 -3 05 18 35 51 71 D GFDL FLOR -6 -8 -7 -1 4 5 2 -1 -2 S CPC MRKOV 45 51 54 53 43 28 16 11 8 S CPC CA 9 15 20 26 21 17 12 22 31 S CSU CLIPR -5 -27 -24 -21 -18 -6 6 18 23 S UBC NNET 39 41 44 44 40 33 25 16 5 S FSU REGR 27 24 20 17 15 13 10 8 8 S UCLA-TCD 12 09 06 0 -9 -12 -9 -16 -16 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Sep 2017 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA 0.26 Aug-0.15 -67 -69 -59 -49 -33 -16 0-999-999 D NASA GMAO -61 -96-123-147-155-137-100 -63-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -65 -71 -79 -74 -58-999-999-999-999 D JMA -48 -50 -42 -38 -32 -18 2 27 47 D BCC_CSM11m -31 -23 -20 -16 -5 12 28 37 44 D SAUDI-KAU 0 -11 -17 -9 14 35 46 54 59 D LDEO -63 -68 -71 -73 -68 -54 -38-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -61 -72 -69 -57 -40-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -91-111-109 -96-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -28 -21 -14 -11 -7 -6 -7 -9 -11 D KMA SNU -55 -62 -63 -55 -37 -17 2 19 35 D IOCAS ICM -54 -79-115-136-135-113 -86 -66 -56 D COLA CCSM4 -83-112-116-100 -86-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -55 -50 -44 -42 -40 -40 -43 -42 -33 D SINTEX-F -13 -28 -57 -74 -77 -59-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -92-111-108 -87 -51 -16 14 42 73 D GFDL CM2.1 -46 -54 -57 -55 -50 -29 -3 29 62 D CMC CANSIP -68 -75 -73 -66 -49 -22 4 30 56 D GFDL FLOR -45 -45 -39 -31 -26 -25 -22 -17 -14 S CPC MRKOV 24 29 30 22 11 07 12 19 13 S CPC CA 32 23 13 4 12 19 27 17 7 S CSU CLIPR -38 -50 -42 -35 -27 -12 3 18 24 S UBC NNET -18 -21 -22 -20 -16 -12 -6 -1 3 S FSU REGR -24 -31 -37 -40 -42 -43 -42 -42 -42 S UCLA-TCD -25 -33 -41 -46 -44 -33 -21 -22 -19 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Oct 2017 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS-0.07 Sep-0.47 -99-108-106 -98 -83 -61 -39-999-999 D NASA GMAO -66 -91-127-138-118 -82 -51 -26-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -82-100-102 -87 -63-999-999-999-999 D JMA -77 -79 -58 -31 -2 23 43 56 65 D BCC_CSM11m -60 -49 -37 -19 0 20 32 44 57 D SAUDI-KAU -46 -49 -37 -8 18 38 53 62 64 D LDEO -63 -75 -73 -61 -42 -25 -11-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -75 -82 -70 -52 -36-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -109-116-106 -81-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -50 -42 -34 -28 -23 -19 -20 -19 -16 D KMA SNU -34 -48 -45 -34 -19 -07 03 12 16 D IOCAS ICM -43 -77-108-112 -93 -62 -37 -24 -26 D COLA CCSM4 -108-121-117-102 -86-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -59 -61 -54 -47 -42 -42 -39 -31 -20 D SINTEX-F -25 -43 -66 -69 -57 -43-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -122-125-102 -63 -22 15 48 81 115 D GFDL CM2.1 -59 -71 -65 -53 -28 -5 20 45 66 D CMC CANSIP -94 -88 -74 -59 -38 -12 18 48 76 D GFDL FLOR -45 -46 -44 -40 -38 -35 -31 -24 -18 S PSD-CU LIM -75 -69 -58 -50 -44 -37 -29 -22 -16 S CPC MRKOV 1 4 -3 -11 -7 5 18 13 3 S CPC CA -46 -41 -35 -30 -26 -22 -18 -27 -36 S CSU CLIPR -67 -79 -67 -56 -44 -25 -5 14 22 S UBC NNET -64 -68 -64 -54 -41 -29 -19 -10 -2 S FSU REGR -59 -64 -62 -55 -47 -40 -37 -37 -42 S UCLA-TCD -49 -49 -49 -41 -31 -16 -07 -16 -27 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Nov 2017 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO-0.35 Oct-0.46 -120-109 -92 -74 -53 -29 -3-999-999 D NASA GMAO -100-121-117 -93 -64 -40 -22 -9-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -92 -95 -85 -68 -55-999-999-999-999 D JMA -67 -46 -21 -2 15 33 45 57 62 D BCC_CSM11m -38 -20 -1 16 30 38 43 51 62 D SAUDI-KAU -56 -42 -12 17 41 62 77 82 79 D LDEO -76 -81 -76 -62 -48 -37 -32-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -84 -86 -80 -66 -47-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -114-117-101 -90-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -45 -41 -35 -30 -25 -22 -23 -20 -13 D KMA SNU -85 -73 -56 -36 -19 -2 14 25 30 D IOCAS ICM -76 -94 -95 -70 -37 -14 -5 -5 -9 D COLA CCSM4 -90 -88 -77 -63 -46-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -70 -67 -59 -51 -40 -30 -21 -17 -14 D SINTEX-F -52 -65 -61 -44 -33 -25-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -116-111 -84 -52 -23 8 44 77 93 D GFDL CM2.1 -89 -92 -86 -64 -44 -20 3 29 46 D CMC CANSIP -100-100 -85 -60 -32 -3 30 68 97 D GFDL FLOR -42 -42 -39 -37 -34 -29 -23 -16 -8 S PSD-CU LIM -81 -71 -62 -56 -47 -37 -28 -21 -12 S CPC MRKOV -15 -23 -31 -25 -12 2 -1 -7 -13 S CPC CA -46 -40 -33 -27 -25 -24 -22 -12 -1 S CSU CLIPR -60 -67 -51 -35 -19 -1 17 35 39 S UBC NNET -57 -55 -45 -34 -25 -17 -10 -4 1 S FSU REGR -27 -23 -17 -11 -3 4 10 11 10 S UCLA-TCD -65 -68 -63 -44 -23 -9 -06 -15 -15 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Dec 2017 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON-0.58 Nov-0.86 -151-154-145-124 -94 -60 -24-999-999 D NASA GMAO -102 -98 -85 -74 -56 -40 -24 -23-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -101 -87 -68 -51 -40-999-999-999-999 D JMA -73 -56 -30 2 39 77 110 128 134 D BCC_CSM11m -33 -3 22 38 48 53 59 65 72 D SAUDI-KAU -40 -9 21 47 69 86 95 94 96 D LDEO -103 -97 -86 -80 -79 -79 -72-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -87 -74 -55 -32 -9-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -114-110-101 -83-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -54 -48 -43 -37 -32 -26 -22 -13 -3 D KMA SNU -61 -46 -27 -10 7 22 33 37 37 D IOCAS ICM -82 -76 -63 -38 -13 3 2 -6 -13 D COLA CCSM4 -108 -98 -86 -71 -52-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -73 -60 -51 -41 -33 -23 -18 -16 -15 D SINTEX-F -50 -55 -43 -35 -21 -13-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -101 -79 -45 -16 9 32 54 69 69 D GFDL CM2.1 -102 -96 -68 -43 -19 2 19 26 24 D CMC CANSIP -110 -95 -73 -47 -19 12 43 65 76 D GFDL FLOR -61 -60 -59 -54 -47 -38 -28 -17 -6 S PSD-CU LIM -82 -70 -60 -49 -36 -24 -14 -3 13 S CPC MRKOV -42 -45 -36 -20 -3 -2 -2 -3 7 S CPC CA -77 -68 -58 -49 -46 -42 -39 -43 -46 S CSU CLIPR -69 -60 -41 -22 -3 16 34 53 56 S UBC NNET -84 -71 -54 -40 -26 -14 -4 1 4 S FSU REGR -55 -46 -34 -21 -09 2 10 14 15 S UCLA-TCD -74 -56 -41 -22 -09 -5 -8 -7 -3 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Jan 2018 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND-0.70 Dec-0.79 -61 -56 -48 -35 -23 -14 -8-999-999 D NASA GMAO -91 -76 -73 -68 -66 -66 -71 -71-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -83 -68 -49 -30 -11-999-999-999-999 D JMA -71 -47 -9 42 91 128 148 154 150 D BCC_CSM11m -35 -7 19 40 56 67 72 77 85 D SAUDI-KAU -15 15 42 64 80 89 93 99 113 D LDEO -86 -79 -74 -70 -66 -56 -42-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -65 -46 -24 -1 19-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -64 -63 -58 -37-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -51 -48 -42 -36 -29 -21 -13 -2 10 D KMA SNU -52 -29 -8 14 36 54 64 70 82 D IOCAS ICM -78 -80 -72 -53 -36 -26 -22 -23 -26 D COLA CCSM4 -112 -98 -76 -52 -22-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -46 -35 -26 -15 2 15 19 17 15 D SINTEX-F -60 -40 -28 -13 -5 2-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -72 -52 -31 -5 22 42 46 33 16 D GFDL CM2.1 -82 -63 -35 -4 22 45 57 62 66 D CMC CANSIP -66 -39 -11 14 44 71 87 88 87 D GFDL FLOR -45 -36 -24 -11 3 16 28 37 45 S PSD-CU LIM -80 -70 -59 -45 -33 -23 -11 4 20 S CPC MRKOV -56 -38 -14 8 12 16 19 31 45 S CPC CA -57 -50 -43 -36 -40 -45 -49 -57 -64 S CSU CLIPR -77 -76 -52 -28 -4 18 40 62 68 S UBC NNET -58 -43 -28 -14 -1 10 17 22 25 S FSU REGR -48 -33 -16 0 15 26 34 39 43 S UCLA-TCD -61 -40 -19 -6 -2 -6 -3 0 6 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Feb 2018 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ-0.79 Jan-0.75 18 45 64 90 126 152 163-999-999 D NASA GMAO -77 -69 -71 -71 -67 -61 -60 -55-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -58 -45 -30 -17 -8-999-999-999-999 D JMA -71 -47 -9 42 91 128 148 154 150 D BCC_CSM11m -14 8 35 59 75 80 81 86 94 D SAUDI-KAU -7 21 45 59 66 72 84 103 108 D LDEO -79 -77 -73 -68 -57 -40 -20-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -47 -24 0 18 31-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -64 -62 -53 -36-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -56 -49 -42 -33 -23 -10 1 14 25 D KMA SNU -53 -40 -29 -16 -5 -3 -5 0 8 D IOCAS ICM -39 -24 -9 3 10 9 2 -5 -4 D COLA CCSM4 -87 -79 -63 -37 -12-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -49 -33 -18 -2 11 16 16 17 17 D SINTEX-F -57 -44 -30 -19 -5 0-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -26 3 34 63 82 83 69 57 56 D GFDL CM2.1 -52 -27 5 35 61 73 77 78 83 D CMC CANSIP -53 -30 1 35 70 93 102 104 107 D GFDL FLOR -47 -35 -22 -8 5 17 27 34 40 S PSD-CU LIM -79 -68 -56 -45 -36 -26 -14 -2 13 S CPC MRKOV -57 -27 -01 10 22 32 49 68 82 S CPC CA -42 -43 -43 -44 -57 -70 -83 -69 -56 S CSU CLIPR -82 -85 -62 -38 -15 7 28 50 56 S UBC NNET -46 -32 -19 -7 3 10 16 20 23 S FSU REGR -47 -29 -12 1 11 15 16 15 13 S UCLA-TCD -44 -24 -13 -9 -10 -8 -3 6 7 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Mar 2018 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF-0.81 Feb-0.90 -97 -91 -72 -43 -20 -9 6-999-999 D NASA GMAO -75 -70 -64 -68 -77 -90 -89 -79-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -50 -26 -8 6 12-999-999-999-999 D JMA -34 15 59 89 96 93 93 101 114 D BCC_CSM11m -22 9 39 56 63 67 73 84 94 D SAUDI-KAU -18 6 20 24 26 37 57 63 45 D LDEO -62 -48 -36 -23 -8 10 27-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -44 -14 14 38 53-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -46 -19 8 34-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -55 -43 -31 -17 -1 15 28 40 49 D KMA SNU -43 -28 -15 -08 -9 -13 -9 -1 4 D IOCAS ICM -51 -35 -23 -18 -17 -22 -23 -23 -15 D COLA CCSM4 -81 -55 -16 16 28-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -44 -25 -6 5 5 -2 -8 -13 -15 D SINTEX-F -52 -31 -19 -7 -5 -11-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -44 -12 27 55 62 50 41 44 56 D GFDL CM2.1 -40 -10 18 43 59 63 61 58 59 D CMC CANSIP -57 -24 15 51 78 96 109 121 132 D GFDL FLOR -8 11 28 42 54 61 66 68 70 S PSD-CU LIM -69 -58 -47 -39 -31 -21 -9 4 20 S CPC MRKOV -30 -5 6 20 31 49 69 84 84 S CPC CA -50 -37 -23 -10 -13 -15 -18 -18 -19 S CSU CLIPR -74 -66 -47 -27 -8 9 26 43 48 S UBC NNET -41 -16 7 29 38 48 57 67 68 S FSU REGR -34 -9 12 27 35 38 39 38 37 S UCLA-TCD -33 -17 -11 -9 -2 5 16 46 41 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Apr 2018 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM-0.79 Mar-0.73 -87 -80 -59 -34 -14 -2 6-999-999 D NASA GMAO -26 -10 -3 -4 1 13 19 19-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -24 -5 10 19 30-999-999-999-999 D JMA -9 22 47 66 76 85 98 117 134 D BCC_CSM11m -14 9 31 41 44 45 46 51 57 D SAUDI-KAU -10 5 11 13 22 38 48 37 5 D LDEO -47 -47 -40 -21 -1 14 25-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -13 20 48 69 84-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -17 8 30 48-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -46 -32 -17 3 22 41 52 61 66 D KMA SNU -9 11 22 21 20 30 43 51 47 D IOCAS ICM 10 29 36 40 43 43 51 61 75 D COLA CCSM4 -56 -19 3 6 -2-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -17 9 28 35 32 27 29 37 44 D SINTEX-F -12 -17 3 14 31 38-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -12 33 69 87 86 85 87 93 106 D GFDL CM2.1 -10 18 45 66 77 82 87 92 97 D CMC CANSIP -39 0 45 80 101 115 127 137 144 D GFDL FLOR 5 35 60 80 94 103 108 112 112 S PSD-CU LIM -47 -43 -19 -11 14-999-999-999-999 S NTU CODA -34 -21 -10 3 19 36 53 71 83 S CPC MRKOV -2 7 16 25 43 66 81 84 75 S CPC CA 21 49 78 106 124 143 161 146 132 S CSU CLIPR -31 -10 9 29 48 56 63 71 66 S UBC NNET -9 20 47 57 70 84 104 110 101 S FSU REGR -26 -5 10 17 17 15 13 12 13 S UCLA-TCD -8 4 7 14 21 35 46 54 47 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued May 2018 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA-0.68 Apr-0.41 -62 -61 -58 -52 -44 -34 -29-999-999 D NASA GMAO -14 2 5 12 19 20 15 15-999 D NCEP CFSv2 1 14 20 31 43-999-999-999-999 D JMA 0 25 43 56 69 86 107 126 135 D BCC_CSM11m 28 48 59 65 74 86 99 107 106 D SAUDI-KAU -1 6 8 12 18 16 4 -16 -27 D LDEO -37 -41 -41 -24 -8 2 6-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 11 34 49 61 77-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 11 33 52 74-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -24 -6 16 39 60 75 82 85 86 D KMA SNU 24 36 36 36 48 65 75 69 54 D IOCAS ICM 3 10 14 20 22 26 38 55 74 D COLA CCSM4 -35 -19 -12 -10 -2-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 27 58 74 78 80 91 102 106 96 D SINTEX-F 7 29 40 55 70 73-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 30 57 70 71 75 81 88 98 110 D GFDL CM2.1 6 29 41 48 52 60 70 78 77 D CMC CANSIP 20 50 68 75 82 93 106 114 119 D GFDL FLOR 38 60 79 93 102 108 114 117 116 S PSD-CU LIM -30 -33 -28 -7 2 25 37-999-999 S NTU CODA -3 8 23 41 62 81 100 111 111 S CPC MRKOV 16 24 34 56 85 110 120 114 103 S CPC CA -1 8 17 26 28 30 32 27 21 S CSU CLIPR 6 30 47 63 80 87 94 101 95 S UBC NNET 27 55 65 80 96 117 124 115 97 S FSU REGR 17 36 47 53 55 55 53 49 43 S UCLA-TCD 11 18 26 38 56 73 78 89 81 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Jun 2018 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM-0.41 May-0.13 23 44 72 96 112 122 125-999-999 D NASA GMAO 32 46 57 71 80 83 81 79-999 D NCEP CFSv2 23 28 39 53 67-999-999-999-999 D JMA 18 27 37 48 65 87 106 117 118 D BCC_CSM11m 63 77 81 87 96 108 118 118 105 D SAUDI-KAU 7 8 11 11 5 -7 -18 -18 -11 D LDEO -18 -26 -22 -10 -2 4 9-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 48 65 78 94 107-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 42 68 90 112-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 3 30 59 85 101 110 111 112 108 D KMA SNU 24 25 25 33 45 51 46 33 21 D IOCAS ICM 49 61 64 71 77 83 92 98 99 D COLA CCSM4 2 12 14 11 10-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 76 107 119 119 119 123 127 129 128 D SINTEX-F 37 38 44 52 65 52-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 63 96 112 119 119 118 126 140 152 D GFDL CM2.1 54 76 88 97 106 117 124 117 111 D CMC CANSIP 52 73 85 94 107 119 127 130 126 D GFDL FLOR 50 68 81 90 96 102 107 107 102 S PSD-CU LIM -33 -28 -7 3 25 37 58-999-999 S NTU CODA 12 27 47 68 88 107 118 118 109 S CPC MRKOV 28 35 54 82 108 121 118 108 102 S CPC CA 19 31 43 55 52 49 46 39 33 S CSU CLIPR 30 51 62 74 85 91 98 104 100 S UBC NNET 28 55 63 75 88 107 115 111 97 S FSU REGR 38 52 61 67 72 74 74 71 68 S UCLA-TCD 14 27 37 56 78 92 89 83 77 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Jul 2018 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ-0.10 Jun 0.20 28 39 54 63 60 50 38-999-999 D NASA GMAO 61 95 128 136 121 100 91 89-999 D NCEP CFSv2 37 53 67 82 87-999-999-999-999 D JMA 67 86 104 124 144 155 152 139 124 D BCC_CSM11m 61 69 76 84 91 99 100 92 74 D SAUDI-KAU 24 29 32 28 18 11 14 19 21 D LDEO -5 -17 -14 -7 -4 -3 2-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 63 81 103 118 123-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 71 98 123 141-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 57 92 124 142 147 146 142 136 125 D KMA SNU 42 42 51 65 73 66 50 33 22 D IOCAS ICM 79 85 87 91 95 96 95 90 82 D COLA CCSM4 24 23 26 32 30-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 77 83 85 89 96 101 99 87 73 D SINTEX-F 32 46 54 69 56 43-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 49 53 56 56 58 66 74 82 85 D GFDL CM2.1 86 98 104 110 115 115 103 98 89 D CMC CANSIP 55 64 71 77 84 92 102 109 107 D GFDL FLOR 62 76 85 91 97 100 100 94 86 S PSD-CU LIM -35 -13 -4 20 34 56 48-999-999 S NTU CODA 42 64 88 110 129 140 137 125 114 S CPC MRKOV 34 56 87 114 128 124 113 106 97 S CPC CA 31 56 82 107 100 93 86 74 62 S CSU CLIPR 37 45 50 55 60 71 81 92 96 S UBC NNET 48 61 74 93 101 99 86 72 64 S FSU REGR 47 61 71 77 79 76 70 63 56 S UCLA-TCD 34 51 76 98 106 98 83 79 78 C CPC CONSOL end Forecast issued Aug 2018 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ 0.12 Jul 0.30 55 83 105 116 116 107 92-999-999 D NASA GMAO 75 120 147 143 130 121 120 112-999 D NCEP CFSv2 45 67 82 86 86-999-999-999-999 D JMA 77 98 113 128 137 131 116 98 83 D BCC_CSM11m 88 110 127 139 140 133 116 92 61 D SAUDI-KAU 52 58 57 50 42 41 42 41 33 D LDEO -14 -10 1 8 15 23 32-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 52 75 87 87 82-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 57 85 106 118-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 82 119 144 154 154 152 145 133 119 D KMA SNU 30 38 50 58 52 38 26 20 18 D IOCAS ICM 80 90 92 100 104 109 115 115 112 D COLA CCSM4 53 75 80 72 66-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 52 63 71 77 83 86 86 84 82 D SINTEX-F 34 52 77 71 49 28-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 37 72 96 100 99 102 101 94 88 D GFDL CM2.1 73 84 94 104 114 113 114 106 95 D CMC CANSIP 39 68 88 99 108 115 117 106 87 D GFDL FLOR 64 73 80 87 92 94 90 84 76 S PSD-CU LIM -12 -3 21 35 57 48 41-999-999 S NTU CODA 59 81 101 120 129 127 116 105 97 S CPC MRKOV 58 90 120 130 120 100 89 76 69 S CPC CA 33 65 97 129 108 87 66 58 51 S CSU CLIPR 45 52 58 65 71 77 82 88 89 S UBC NNET 47 59 78 88 89 79 68 64 64 S FSU REGR 66 76 81 82 80 74 67 60 55 S UCLA-TCD 49 74 95 100 89 74 68 67 55 C CPC CONSOL end