Forecast issued Jan 2015 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND 0.71 Dec 0.78 39 48 57 75 103 136 162 194-999 D NCEP CFSv2 71 71 70 72 74 65 48-999-999 D NASA GMAO 50 43 41 40 40-999-999-999-999 D JMA 85 77 64 54 50 52 57 63 71 D SCRIPPS 79 77 81 97 115 122 117 112 114 D LDEO 40 42 47 55 64 71 74-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 75 72 74 86-999-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 26 -3 -17 -8-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 68 65 63 62 58 54 45 40 35 D KMA SNU 64 62 59 53 46 40 34 28 24 D ESSIC ICM 106 115 115 90 59 27 0 -23 -51 D COLA CCSM3 62 61 65 67 78-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 54 43 30 25 21 16-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 62 77 92 99 98 86 62 36 19 D GFDL CM2.1 51 51 56 62 70 75 72 62 55 D CMC CANSIP 67 78 88 92 89 78 62 49 44 D GFDL CM2.5 42 36 32 31 30 29 32 39 46 S CPC MRKOV 53 38 23 9 2 -5 -12 -11 -9 S CDC LIM 49 31 23 17 17 14 12 11 18 S CPC CA 45 39 36 36 34 36 35 35 36 S CPC CCA 53 41 30 18 18 19 19 21 24 S CSU CLIPR 66 60 55 49 44 43 42 41 39 S UBC NNET 62 50 42 36 29 23 18 17 18 S FSU REGR 73 56 36 17 2 -9 -17 -22 -25 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Feb 2015 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ 0.72 Jan 0.53 70 74 86 99 111 113 120 126-999 D NCEP CFSv2 67 71 84 102 118 124 125-999-999 D NASA GMAO 44 55 67 78 88-999-999-999-999 D JMA 73 58 46 42 46 52 59 66 75 D SCRIPPS 56 58 69 83 86 76 64 59 51 D LDEO 46 54 65 80 96 109 117-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 64 81 107 132 150-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 45 21 10 11-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 46 45 45 45 43 42 39 38 34 D KMA SNU 53 48 42 36 31 27 24 24 29 D ESSIC ICM 28 37 76 125 167 183 185 175 156 D COLA CCSM3 55 64 76 90 113-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 77 82 87 97 106 105 100 94 93 D SINTEX-F 24 19 25 34 40 38-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 64 82 110 134 143 130 110 97 91 D GFDL CM2.1 52 54 58 60 63 61 58 55 58 D CMC CANSIP 57 76 96 112 125 131 129 125 122 D GFDL FLOR 24 24 28 31 34 42 54 68 81 S CPC MRKOV 39 24 8 -8 -13 -19 -24 -21 -18 S CDC LIM 34 28 23 22 18 12 9 14 19 S CPC CA 41 38 37 34 36 35 38 44 52 S CPC CCA 29 16 2 -11 -6 0 5 -6 -16 S CSU CLIPR 50 48 49 49 50 54 57 61 58 S UBC NNET 37 33 31 28 25 22 21 22 26 S FSU REGR 37 27 21 18 17 15 12 8 5 S UCLA-TCD 46 41 37 31 24 20 26 33 42 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Mar 2015 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF 0.62 Feb 0.56 72 90 105 116 122 131 142 143-999 D NCEP CFSv2 82 101 128 161 191 207 217-999-999 D NASA GMAO 65 80 99 117 133-999-999-999-999 D JMA 49 39 36 40 45 50 56 65 72 D SCRIPPS 47 49 54 53 38 22 16 16 12 D LDEO 67 89 114 137 154 167 176-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 78 105 135 163 182-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 103 111 116 117-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 46 47 47 47 46 51 52 52 48 D KMA SNU 53 51 49 46 40 36 40 50 53 D ESSIC ICM 51 87 125 147 148 142 137 130 120 D COLA CCSM3 71 91 116 142 167-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 34 47 59 77 84 93-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 99 146 182 192 183 171 168 167 158 D GFDL CM2.1 52 71 94 114 126 131 136 140 143 D CMC CANSIP 68 90 110 125 127 121 117 120 123 D GFDL FLOR 30 34 37 42 51 66 83 98 112 S CPC MRKOV 33 19 6 -8 -12 -16 -19 -15 -11 S CDC LIM 34 32 34 30 20 18 27 36 37 S CPC CA 46 55 57 58 52 50 52 58 56 S CPC CCA -5 -22 -40 -57 -61 -66 -70 -72 -73 S CSU CLIPR 44 38 47 55 64 74 85 95 91 S UBC NNET 54 58 61 60 58 61 68 80 87 S FSU REGR 61 63 64 66 69 77 88 101 111 S UCLA-TCD 50 47 43 36 30 25 31 40 48 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Apr 2015 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM 0.56 Mar 0.58 104 137 167 183 201 218 216 182-999 D NCEP CFSv2 81 110 144 167 177 184 192-999-999 D NASA GMAO 83 105 132 157 187-999-999-999-999 D JMA 52 54 56 57 60 66 71 75 74 D SCRIPPS 34 33 27 13 8 23 54 73 81 D LDEO 95 114 128 138 141 142 142-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 96 127 160 184 203-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 102 98 92 90-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 50 53 52 54 59 65 64 60 56 D KMA SNU 74 75 74 67 61 62 69 72 62 D ESSIC ICM 79 120 148 159 157 154 154 160 156 D COLA CCSM3 82 111 144 169 182-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 49 62 76 80 92 102-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 104 147 181 191 187 183 182 177 165 D GFDL CM2.1 80 99 118 129 137 141 147 148 145 D CMC CANSIP 90 120 148 171 184 191 193 187 169 D GFDL FLOR 79 83 88 100 119 140 158 172 173 S CPC MRKOV 32 24 16 8 7 6 5 7 10 S CDC LIM 33 36 31 22 23 37 55 60 56 S CPC CA 71 76 80 80 83 90 100 98 81 S CPC CCA 4 -5 -15 -24 -22 -20 -18 -19 -19 S CSU CLIPR 47 42 55 67 80 94 108 122 118 S UBC NNET 76 83 87 85 91 101 118 125 117 S FSU REGR 90 99 106 114 125 142 162 179 187 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2015 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA 0.64 Apr 0.78 152 193 218 244 265 271 244 198-999 D NCEP CFSv2 150 198 241 266 277 279 279-999-999 D NASA GMAO 122 154 190 230 261-999-999-999-999 D JMA 72 72 73 76 83 90 94 93 87 D SCRIPPS 61 49 31 17 7 11 27 50 69 D LDEO 146 165 163 159 161 163 161-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 147 184 210 243 273-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 129 149 167 182-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 77 83 89 97 101 100 91 83 76 D KMA SNU 91 83 72 63 60 65 67 57 36 D ESSIC ICM 101 127 140 142 142 147 149 131 88 D COLA CCSM3 132 166 193 204 207-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 152 183 203 205 200 196 194 187 163 D SINTEX-F 62 72 77 96 121 138-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 145 172 174 160 153 156 154 146 136 D GFDL CM2.1 129 154 169 173 174 178 179 172 150 D CMC CANSIP 136 165 187 202 214 223 221 206 176 D GFDL FLOR 111 114 124 142 162 179 190 189 172 S CPC MRKOV 54 50 46 41 40 39 37 37 36 S CDC LIM 60 55 46 51 71 98 106 100 84 S CPC CA 76 87 91 94 99 107 105 86 66 S CPC CCA 52 51 49 48 59 70 81 66 50 S CSU CLIPR 76 75 86 97 108 118 127 137 128 S UBC NNET 91 94 92 98 111 130 137 124 101 S FSU REGR 137 158 179 200 220 234 234 216 178 S UCLA-TCD 98 98 94 86 77 64 61 63 66 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Jun 2015 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM 0.80 May 1.03 156 178 200 226 240 226 191 154-999 D NCEP CFSv2 192 218 234 243 252 254 248-999-999 D NASA GMAO 159 178 206 238 266-999-999-999-999 D JMA 89 91 93 100 110 118 123 120 109 D SCRIPPS 79 74 71 65 67 81 111 133 144 D LDEO 164 157 138 135 138 139 134-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 148 163 188 215 241-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 170 189 203 209-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 105 117 128 133 129 119 106 97 86 D KMA SNU 114 99 94 96 104 109 97 73 43 D ESSIC ICM 172 181 180 179 184 188 184 153 94 D COLA CCSM3 191 213 216 208 202-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 182 205 213 212 212 212 206 189 167 D SINTEX-F 79 79 79 94 108 118-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 153 164 158 151 149 150 155 160 161 D GFDL CM2.1 177 205 219 225 232 231 216 179 145 D CMC CANSIP 153 170 177 181 188 193 190 172 141 D GFDL FLOR 132 143 161 181 197 208 206 187 160 S CPC MRKOV 67 63 59 54 51 47 44 41 37 S CDC LIM 76 71 83 110 143 155 147 125 99 S CPC CA 86 89 92 95 101 97 78 60 47 S CPC CCA 108 127 147 166 163 160 157 123 88 S CSU CLIPR 98 95 99 103 107 110 112 115 103 S UBC NNET 118 117 128 148 177 187 171 141 109 S FSU REGR 146 155 162 165 160 145 116 78 36 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2015 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 1.04 Jun 1.32 203 250 288 298 269 217 167 123-999 D NCEP CFSv2 245 277 290 298 308 307 293-999-999 D NASA GMAO 163 193 223 249 238-999-999-999-999 D JMA 120 128 141 155 166 168 158 137 106 D SCRIPPS 74 67 58 54 63 89 124 152 178 D LDEO 197 215 212 213 210 193 163-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 203 244 272 295 297-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 196 215 219 219-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 140 152 157 151 138 125 112 101 85 D KMA SNU 149 152 164 177 183 168 135 92 53 D ESSIC ICM 205 216 225 240 253 242 197 129 59 D COLA CCSM3 250 276 275 267 242-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 237 255 253 250 245 234 211 181 150 D SINTEX-F 89 106 126 139 134 115-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 178 197 204 207 204 196 183 163 145 D GFDL CM2.1 241 277 292 301 296 272 218 167 109 D CMC CANSIP 161 167 169 179 186 184 170 143 113 D GFDL FLOR 155 175 196 214 224 221 201 172 142 S CPC MRKOV 88 84 79 75 68 61 54 47 40 S CDC LIM 96 116 151 193 210 200 172 137 104 S CPC CA 91 94 98 105 102 82 65 54 45 S CPC CCA 94 136 178 220 204 189 173 142 112 S CSU CLIPR 134 135 138 140 143 137 130 124 103 S UBC NNET 137 152 175 206 218 196 162 123 94 S FSU REGR 154 164 174 182 183 173 150 119 84 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Aug 2015 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ 1.32 Jul 1.60 213 253 266 240 195 157 125 89-999 D NCEP CFSv2 282 314 334 351 360 344 303-999-999 D NASA GMAO 200 221 238 229 197-999-999-999-999 D JMA 154 171 188 197 196 179 147 102 57 D SCRIPPS 206 226 238 239 225 190 138 86 51 D LDEO 231 245 248 245 226 191 149-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 235 269 298 304 283-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 244 261 264 262-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 176 180 173 158 143 130 114 97 75 D KMA SNU 191 198 214 218 201 165 118 74 34 D IOCAS ICM 233 245 263 286 294 266 210 146 78 D COLA CCSM3 291 303 285 256 210-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 253 254 245 239 231 215 194 165 127 D SINTEX-F 133 161 191 185 157 117-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 236 257 262 257 241 217 183 142 97 D GFDL CM2.1 258 280 286 285 269 226 180 127 62 D CMC CANSIP 209 217 221 223 215 194 162 123 73 D GFDL FLOR 220 243 261 269 261 233 196 160 129 S CPC MRKOV 103 95 88 81 71 61 51 43 34 S CDC LIM 157 197 240 259 247 213 166 123 73 S CPC CA 106 113 121 117 94 72 54 37 19 S CPC CCA 197 227 258 288 237 187 136 100 64 S CSU CLIPR 159 159 157 156 154 142 129 117 94 S UBC NNET 174 191 214 220 205 173 131 93 51 S FSU REGR 209 230 249 258 255 240 217 188 157 S UCLA-TCD 158 139 117 92 74 59 56 52 49 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Sep 2015 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA 1.66 Aug 2.06 217 229 214 178 144 122 95 64-999 D NCEP CFSv2 283 300 303 300 288 261 221-999-999 D NASA GMAO 235 253 240 197 148-999-999-999-999 D JMA 211 231 237 229 204 163 108 49 -6 D SCRIPPS 256 266 267 267 266 261 246 222 195 D LDEO 245 248 240 222 192 156 123-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 245 266 273 255 216-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 254 267 269 259-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 188 180 165 149 136 123 103 82 58 D KMA SNU 235 245 249 229 191 142 98 57 17 D IOCAS ICM 271 292 317 328 302 242 181 132 85 D COLA CCSM3 259 251 224 186 142-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 257 257 252 246 231 211 188 161 128 D SINTEX-F 167 190 190 173 136 97-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 256 276 281 271 241 202 159 110 58 D GFDL CM2.1 255 267 263 249 216 182 129 57 -16 D CMC CANSIP 240 240 234 221 198 165 125 65 -17 D GFDL FLOR 251 269 277 268 240 202 164 132 103 S CPC MRKOV 125 113 101 89 75 61 47 37 27 S CDC LIM 225 270 291 277 236 179 126 70 24 S CPC CA 159 169 163 132 99 70 45 19 -7 S CPC CCA 205 220 235 250 187 124 61 39 17 S CSU CLIPR 207 207 202 196 191 170 149 128 100 S UBC NNET 220 236 238 218 182 131 79 23 -24 S FSU REGR 255 277 291 288 265 224 173 123 83 S UCLA-TCD 194 174 149 121 98 83 74 63 53 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Oct 2015 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS 1.98 Sep 2.28 233 222 188 155 127 94 58 15-999 D NCEP CFSv2 279 294 294 278 244 192 123-999-999 D NASA GMAO 267 259 219 172 138-999-999-999-999 D JMA 245 252 240 212 169 112 49 -11 -66 D SCRIPPS 259 259 258 254 245 220 188 157 140 D LDEO 266 265 245 212 176 144 118-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 262 272 246 198 141-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 280 299 294 273-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 184 167 151 139 125 109 85 61 35 D KMA SNU 255 258 241 206 161 120 83 48 17 D IOCAS ICM 209 211 210 181 111 27 -44 -86-114 D COLA CCSM3 248 230 191 150 115-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 283 271 254 237 222 196 154 100 53 D SINTEX-F 213 215 194 159 114 69-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 286 290 268 231 180 122 53 -17 -86 D GFDL CM2.1 270 273 259 227 192 143 78 17 -28 D CMC CANSIP 258 251 231 202 165 119 56 -27-109 D GFDL FLOR 259 268 261 235 198 162 131 102 77 S CPC MRKOV 147 128 109 90 70 51 31 20 8 S CDC LIM 274 295 279 237 178 122 62 13 -30 S CPC CA 213 210 177 139 104 73 42 11 -12 S CPC CCA 253 230 208 185 148 112 75 44 13 S CSU CLIPR 233 236 225 213 202 176 149 123 93 S UBC NNET 266 266 243 204 144 83 17 -37 -74 S FSU REGR 248 252 243 218 180 139 103 75 54 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Nov 2015 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO 2.27 Oct 2.46 283 279 257 222 175 114 53-999-999 D NASA GMAO 249 218 186 168 145 121 89 58-999 D NCEP CFSv2 240 200 151 114 86-999-999-999-999 D JMA 246 235 207 166 110 47 -14 -69-121 D SCRIPPS 257 253 246 231 200 159 126 109 107 D LDEO 268 238 200 158 120 86 51-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 263 241 201 151 102-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 294 274 238 195-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 174 158 146 134 118 98 74 50 25 D KMA SNU 272 247 208 159 116 78 43 12 -13 D IOCAS ICM 309 322 303 259 202 138 68 -2 -50 D COLA CCSM3 240 200 155 119 93-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 270 239 208 186 155 113 61 20 -4 D SINTEX-F 211 193 162 117 62 14-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 306 302 273 226 172 110 47 -17 -63 D GFDL CM2.1 273 255 211 169 123 67 10 -34 -51 D CMC CANSIP 275 253 217 176 132 67 -8 -84-128 D GFDL FLOR 259 249 222 186 150 122 95 73 55 S CPC MRKOV 145 118 91 64 42 20 -2 -12 -22 S CDC LIM 298 275 228 167 112 55 12 -27 -38 S CPC CA 235 200 160 124 95 66 37 15 -2 S CPC CCA 252 211 170 129 93 58 22 14 7 S CSU CLIPR 241 238 218 199 179 151 124 96 69 S UBC NNET 270 252 214 159 105 48 0 -36 -46 S FSU REGR 266 258 233 194 155 123 100 87 81 S UCLA-TCD 184 156 124 97 80 71 61 51 45 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Dec 2015 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON 2.57 Nov 2.96 285 272 236 181 113 41 -21-999-999 D NASA GMAO 265 238 208 187 157 126 91 56-999 D NCEP CFSv2 206 156 113 76 29-999-999-999-999 D JMA 242 215 174 119 54 -11 -70-124-171 D SCRIPPS 296 288 268 231 187 152 133 136 176 D LDEO 260 221 176 135 97 58 18-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 239 192 136 81 34-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 264 225 178 129-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 173 154 138 121 100 78 52 25 0 D KMA SNU 256 215 167 125 87 51 19 -8 -35 D IOCAS ICM 201 156 84 -6 -91-151-179-182-170 D COLA CCSM3 232 183 136 100 64-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 202 170 126 73 24 -16-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 278 250 215 182 136 87 36 -1 -23 D GFDL CM2.1 256 205 157 102 34 -41-102-136-147 D CMC CANSIP 268 232 187 138 065 -25-110-153-164 D GFDL FLOR 242 217 183 149 121 95 74 56 41 S CPC MRKOV 150 116 81 46 21 -3 -28 -36 -45 S CDC LIM 260 211 151 101 50 13 -20 -30 -39 S CPC CA 229 181 136 99 62 26 -1 -22 -39 S CPC CCA 244 189 133 78 33 -11 -56 -61 -65 S CSU CLIPR 240 212 184 156 128 103 77 52 31 S UBC NNET 278 238 179 120 58 5 -35 -50 -67 S FSU REGR 237 201 159 121 91 71 60 55 53 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jan 2016 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND 2.74 Dec 2.82 252 215 157 84 16 -37 -55-999-999 D NASA GMAO 226 194 153 116 76 44 19 13-999 D NCEP CFSv2 194 154 114 62 0-999-999-999-999 D JMA 218 178 124 60 -4 -63-118-164-206 D SCRIPPS 228 187 141 98 55 17 4 30 76 D LDEO 206 157 111 69 26 -17 -49-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 216 162 102 43 2-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 243 192 126 62-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 172 150 128 106 83 58 28 1 -23 D KMA SNU 198 146 100 60 22 -10 -37 -65 -97 D IOCAS ICM 249 196 119 8 -92-165-199-214-222 D COLA CCSM3 203 157 117 80 29-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 188 141 99 60 17 -20 -42 -56 -71 D SINTEX-F 235 199 156 87 15 -44 -70 -78 -73 D GFDL CM2.1 219 173 115 39 -37 -95-122-128-127 D CMC CANSIP 226 184 126 042 -51-127-156-155-152 D GFDL FLOR 205 173 142 116 92 72 55 42 29 S CPC MRKOV 134 92 51 9 -14 -38 -61 -66 -71 S CDC LIM 204 144 94 44 6 -30 -47 -64 -74 S CPC CA 182 138 103 67 29 1 -22 -37 -49 S CPC CCA 185 132 78 25 -1 -27 -53 -70 -88 S CSU CLIPR 191 146 109 71 34 14 -5 -25 -36 S UBC NNET 218 162 105 42 -13 -56 -69 -85-100 S FSU REGR 181 140 104 75 50 27 5 -16 -35 S UCLA-TCD 241 205 166 123 84 58 47 40 33 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Feb 2016 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: NDJ 2.79 Jan 2.60 204 155 90 19 -36 -56 -49-999-999 D NASA GMAO 135 112 90 71 55 42 31 22-999 D NCEP CFSv2 176 138 82 10 -58-999-999-999-999 D JMA 183 131 68 4 -55-109-153-192-223 D SCRIPPS 196 156 123 93 66 50 63 107 144 D LDEO 180 138 101 68 35 13 3-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 173 117 61 14 -15-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 236 192 120 45-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 163 134 108 84 59 32 2 -23 -45 D KMA SNU 176 128 94 63 38 17 -2 -21 -35 D IOCAS ICM 193 139 86 35 -3 -17 -17 -16 -13 D COLA CCSM4 168 116 46 -37-108-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 140 89 49 8 -22 -34 -38 -43 -58 D SINTEX-F 122 74 22 -19 -51 -72-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 189 124 42 -43-105-119 -98 -66 -44 D GFDL CM2.1 185 130 57 -28 -98-132-137-137-139 D CMC CANSIP 196 144 70 -20-105-145-149-144-146 D GFDL FLOR 164 136 113 91 72 57 44 33 25 S CPC MRKOV 115 73 31 -10 -32 -53 -74 -78 -81 S CDC LIM 147 94 40 -2 -41 -63 -87-104-122 S CPC CA 141 109 73 31 -3 -25 -40 -51 -62 S CPC CCA 119 87 55 23 6 -11 -28 -40 -52 S CSU CLIPR 141 82 46 11 -25 -37 -48 -60 -64 S UBC NNET 159 109 56 9 -30 -47 -62 -74 -90 S FSU REGR 187 151 115 85 61 43 29 20 13 S UCLA-TCD 220 189 155 115 77 52 41 36 32 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Mar 2016 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF 2.61 Feb 2.40 142 83 11 -50 -76 -79 -76-999-999 D NASA GMAO 149 123 108 100 96 101 114 122-999 D NCEP CFSv2 148 89 15 -55 -96-999-999-999-999 D JMA 132 67 2 -59-115-162-204-236-264 D SCRIPPS 173 143 123 110 107 127 171 212 232 D LDEO 130 92 48 5 -23 -36 -40-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 89 26 -17 -40 -44-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 156 81 2 -54-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 134 103 76 50 22 -3 -28 -50 -69 D KMA SNU 132 98 71 50 35 21 7 -3 -5 D IOCAS ICM 150 115 85 62 53 50 51 56 71 D COLA CCSM4 125 72 6 -53 -92-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 65 24 -13 -39 -64 -87-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 120 31 -64-140-170-162-135-109 -90 D GFDL CM2.1 124 62 -8 -72-104-110-107-108-107 D CMC CANSIP 139 60 -32-107-135-137-139-148-157 D GFDL FLOR 118 92 69 50 34 21 9 0 -4 S CPC MRKOV 92 54 16 -22 -39 -56 -73 -74 -75 S CDC LIM 101 50 11 -24 -46 -67 -81 -96-103 S CPC CA 120 85 42 2 -30 -54 -71 -85-101 S CPC CCA 93 46 -2 -49 -53 -57 -61 -62 -64 S CSU CLIPR 105 37 7 -24 -54 -60 -65 -71 -70 S UBC NNET 127 70 23 -15 -30 -48 -63 -82 -89 S FSU REGR 148 120 97 79 64 54 47 42 38 S UCLA-TCD 180 142 102 58 22 -1 -9 -11 -10 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Apr 2016 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM 2.23 Mar 1.68 27 -55-120-146-139-126-120-999-999 D NASA GMAO 57 -20 -86-121-140-157-177-192-999 D NCEP CFSv2 82 19 -36 -69 -87-999-999-999-999 D JMA -13 -77-136-182-212-228-236-238-235 D SCRIPPS 111 79 56 47 51 64 59 55 48 D LDEO 83 49 22 2 -12 -20 -26-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 5 -47 -64 -54 -43-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 61 -28 -95-115-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 100 71 44 16 -10 -31 -55 -74 -90 D KMA SNU 98 74 58 46 35 21 11 8 7 D IOCAS ICM 40 -42-106-140-158-180-204-217-206 D COLA CCSM4 59 11 -15 -17 -16 -31 -53 -71 -76 D SINTEX-F 35 -6 -25 -32 -31 -45-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 32 -51-115-130-115 -98 -86 -76 -65 D GFDL CM2.1 51 -19 -84-116-123-121-126-129-127 D CMC CANSIP 94 23 -41 -64 -65 -65 -67 -67 -67 D GFDL FLOR 92 73 57 44 34 26 20 17 14 S CPC MRKOV 70 40 9 -21 -34 -46 -59 -59 -58 S CDC LIM 58 16 -23 -44 -60 -71 -81 -85 -79 S CPC CA 102 57 14 -19 -43 -59 -71 -86-102 S CPC CCA 54 18 -19 -55 -78-101-124-115-106 S CSU CLIPR 53 -4 -23 -43 -62 -59 -56 -53 -51 S UBC NNET 72 30 -4 -19 -34 -44 -57 -61 -61 S FSU REGR 115 92 75 62 54 48 42 37 32 S UCLA-TCD 117 88 56 22 -8 -25 -29 -26 -20 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued May 2016 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA 1.72 Apr 1.09 -113-176-186-171-154-141-124-999-999 D NASA GMAO -28 -92-110-115-118-125-138-138-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -40 -84-107-122-131-999-999-999-999 D JMA -62-121-169-202-220-230-234-232-216 D SCRIPPS 83 68 63 67 73 52 24 -2 -4 D LDEO -76-107 -93 -78 -70 -68 -68-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -48 -68 -57 -47 -46-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -47-107-131-135-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 53 24 -5 -29 -49 -64 -82 -95-106 D KMA SNU 33 16 5 -6 -24 -39 -45 -46 -45 D IOCAS ICM -46-100-126-141-155-168-171-162-137 D COLA CCSM4 -40 -84-106-110-112-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -4 -40 -56 -59 -68 -82 -98-105-101 D SINTEX-F 9 -13 -35 -50 -70 -93-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -116-165-153-119 -83 -62 -51 -48 -44 D GFDL CM2.1 -28 -83-111-124-130-139-139-125-111 D CMC CANSIP -63-112-120-105 -96 -96 -99 -99 -92 D GFDL FLOR 34 19 6 -5 -14 -20 -22 -21 -24 S CPC MRKOV 47 23 -1 -25 -34 -43 -52 -51 -49 S CDC LIM 23 -15 -34 -44 -48 -54 -54 -48 -38 S CPC CA 68 31 2 -22 -40 -53 -68 -89 -91 S CPC CCA 41 25 8 -8 -10 -11 -13 -14 -15 S CSU CLIPR 29 -11 -20 -29 -38 -35 -33 -30 -33 S UBC NNET 20 -15 -29 -45 -57 -71 -76 -76 -68 S FSU REGR 70 51 38 30 24 19 15 13 10 S UCLA-TCD 76 55 33 10 -10 -21 -24 -17 -6 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Jun 2016 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM 1.02 May 0.30 -61 -64 -52 -46 -44 -39 -25-999-999 D NASA GMAO -47 -81 -96-104-107-116-115 -95-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -65 -78 -88 -94-108-999-999-999-999 D JMA -53-110-159-193-214-225-230-227-211 D SCRIPPS 50 44 45 46 23 2 -17 -13 -14 D LDEO -112-119 -97 -77 -67 -63 -61-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -55 -50 -39 -35 -40-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -47 -71 -77 -94-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -18 -47 -69 -84 -98-107-116-122-128 D KMA SNU 5 -3 -13 -31 -48 -56 -57 -55 -53 D IOCAS ICM -76-107-125-139-150-154-146-123 -93 D COLA CCSM4 -43 -74 -80 -78 -70-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -34 -39 -43 -47 -61 -75 -91 -94 -84 D SINTEX-F -3 -22 -29 -41 -57 -80-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -127-127 -95 -66 -51 -40 -34 -25 -16 D GFDL CM2.1 -59 -81 -87 -90 -90 -85 -77 -72 -53 D CMC CANSIP -132-147-126-110-106-104 -99 -90 -74 D GFDL FLOR -1 -15 -28 -40 -48 -49 -47 -46 -48 S CPC MRKOV 19 1 -17 -35 -41 -47 -53 -51 -49 S CDC LIM -18 -33 -37 -36 -39 -39 -35 -27 -16 S CPC CA 6 -31 -61 -84 -98-111-126-119 -93 S CPC CCA -12 -24 -36 -48 -51 -54 -57 -47 -37 S CSU CLIPR -16 -39 -41 -44 -46 -42 -37 -33 -37 S UBC NNET -49 -58 -71 -82-100-107-107 -95 -79 S FSU REGR 15 -1 -13 -21 -27 -30 -30 -30 -29 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2016 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 0.42 Jun-0.12 -41 -21 -11 -6 -2 7 21-999-999 D NASA GMAO -33 -57 -72 -81 -87 -83 -62 -32-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -77 -71 -57 -59 -78-999-999-999-999 D JMA -109-142-168-185-190-185-169-146-120 D SCRIPPS 17 19 18 1 -15 -24 -15 -11 -11 D LDEO -91 -93 -81 -71 -69 -68 -61-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -37 -28 -21 -22 -18-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -74 -84 -90-104-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -65 -84 -94-100-106-109-116-121-125 D KMA SNU -17 -32 -57 -79 -90 -93 -88 -81 -81 D IOCAS ICM -39 -53 -74 -99-116-116 -97 -68 -40 D COLA CCSM4 -40 -41 -40 -33 -28-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -2 5 -2 -11 -18 -19 -19 -12 -7 D SINTEX-F -12 -22 -26 -34 -48 -64-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -105-104 -89 -74 -62 -55 -51 -45 -36 D GFDL CM2.1 -61 -72 -68 -61 -58 -53 -40 -15 11 D CMC CANSIP -90 -74 -53 -46 -46 -51 -58 -56 -43 D GFDL FLOR -21 -30 -39 -43 -42 -37 -35 -36 -35 S CPC MRKOV 3 -9 -20 -32 -35 -38 -41 -38 -35 S CDC LIM -19 -20 -17 -20 -20 -19 -14 -8 -5 S CPC CA -59 -91-115-131-142-149-129 -90 -59 S CPC CCA -70 -73 -76 -79 -76 -72 -69 -51 -33 S CSU CLIPR -23 -29 -25 -20 -16 -14 -11 -9 -16 S UBC NNET -36 -47 -55 -69 -75 -76 -68 -57 -50 S FSU REGR -12 -21 -27 -32 -38 -45 -52 -60 -68 S UCLA-TCD -24 -29 -32 -35 -36 -36 -33 -24 -10 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Aug 2016 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ-0.10 Jul-0.49 -58 -45 -41 -41 -35 -21 -2-999-999 D NASA GMAO -46 -36 -39 -56 -60 -47 -21 1-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -88 -79 -81-103-127-999-999-999-999 D JMA -112-135-150-156-153-143-128-107 -86 D SCRIPPS 4 6 -5 -11 -10 4 10 5 -1 D LDEO -75 -69 -57 -56 -56 -50 -35-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -25 -15 -10 -11 -8-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -72 -83 -92 -96-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -80 -89 -89 -87 -88 -92 -99-103-104 D KMA SNU -63 -93-122-137-139-127-112-106-107 D IOCAS ICM -45 -41 -48 -62 -64 -55 -38 -20 -5 D COLA CCSM4 -19 -10 -7 -4 0-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -21 -17 -19 -24 -27 -25 -21 -18 -16 D SINTEX-F -9 -15 -28 -36 -48 -47-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -69 -72 -62 -50 -39 -31 -25 -22 -25 D GFDL CM2.1 -61 -64 -61 -53 -40 -34 -19 -1 25 D CMC CANSIP -80 -83 -71 -53 -40 -31 -22 -7 12 D GFDL FLOR -39 -47 -51 -49 -43 -40 -39 -37 -34 S CPC MRKOV -26 -29 -33 -37 -35 -34 -32 -28 -25 S CDC LIM -22 -17 -19 -15 -11 -5 0 3 -3 S CPC CA -90-110-125-131-134-110 -70 -39 -27 S CPC CCA -59 -75 -92-108 -93 -78 -63 -43 -22 S CSU CLIPR -44 -41 -25 -10 6 12 18 24 16 S UBC NNET -67 -78 -95-103 -99 -84 -66 -50 -38 S FSU REGR -49 -63 -78 -88 -94 -94 -90 -85 -80 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Sep 2016 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA-0.38 Aug-0.54 -38 -21 -15 -07 9 23 38-999-999 D NASA GMAO -62 -60 -67 -58 -34 -4 19 39-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -68 -67 -82-104-100-999-999-999-999 D JMA -117-128-133-132-125-113 -96 -76 -58 D SCRIPPS -14 -16 -16 -7 11 21 14 -3 -19 D LDEO -61 -55 -53 -52 -46 -33 -18-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -23 -11 -5 -1 2-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -54 -53 -53 -45-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -77 -76 -71 -70 -73 -79 -86 -88 -87 D KMA SNU -89-112-124-124-114 -99 -93 -94 -97 D IOCAS ICM -19 -16 -30 -35 -29 -15 -2 9 14 D COLA CCSM4 -61 -58 -62 -65 -61-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -44 -39 -37 -32 -23 -16 -10 -6 4 D SINTEX-F -14 -25 -42 -60 -62 -53-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -69 -55 -42 -33 -24 -16 -11 -7 -4 D GFDL CM2.1 -42 -34 -23 -11 -6 8 22 42 65 D CMC CANSIP -67 -56 -47 -41 -38 -32 -19 -1 25 D GFDL FLOR -51 -53 -49 -42 -37 -35 -32 -28 -24 S CPC MRKOV -40 -37 -35 -32 -27 -23 -18 -15 -11 S CDC LIM -44 -46 -37 -29 -19 -11 -5 -11 -22 S CPC CA -68 -77 -82 -91 -78 -51 -27 -15 -17 S CPC CCA -77 -79 -81 -83 -68 -52 -37 -25 -14 S CSU CLIPR -37 -29 -9 11 31 38 44 51 42 S UBC NNET -75 -95-104-100 -82 -60 -38 -21 -6 S FSU REGR -51 -57 -60 -61 -60 -59 -57 -53 -50 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Oct 2016 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS-0.54 Sep-0.59 -64 -53 -39 -14 9 31 47-999-999 D NASA GMAO -88-101-101 -73 -33 -5 19 35-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -61 -76 -89 -85 -60-999-999-999-999 D JMA -114-117-116-112-103 -88 -70 -51 -36 D SCRIPPS -28 -18 -1 24 37 34 19 -3 -27 D LDEO -59 -58 -57 -44 -28 -11 5-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -31 -24 -13 1 14-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -69 -66 -50 -29-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -61 -58 -55 -56 -62 -67 -73 -71 -70 D KMA SNU -84 -89 -82 -68 -53 -46 -45 -48 -55 D IOCAS ICM -43 -51 -60 -54 -33 -9 9 16 18 D COLA CCSM4 -52 -48 -43 -30 -18-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -51 -41 -28 -17 -13 -10 -3 10 23 D SINTEX-F -21 -33 -46 -47 -37 -34-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -78 -79 -69 -39 -5 25 48 71 94 D GFDL CM2.1 -41 -29 -13 -6 9 27 53 83 105 D CMC CANSIP -64 -54 -40 -21 -5 13 32 55 77 D GFDL FLOR -62 -56 -47 -39 -35 -31 -26 -22 -21 S CPC MRKOV -26 -19 -13 -6 -2 3 7 7 8 S CDC LIM -63 -53 -43 -28 -13 1 5 -5 -14 S CPC CA -43 -50 -61 -53 -32 -12 -1 0 -2 S CPC CCA -65 -59 -52 -46 -32 -17 -3 -14 -24 S CSU CLIPR -36 -25 -8 9 26 33 40 47 41 S UBC NNET -98-104 -99 -79 -54 -26 2 19 37 S FSU REGR -16 1 19 35 46 52 54 56 57 S UCLA-TCD -42 -29 -15 -2 6 8 9 13 23 S UNB/CWC end Forecast issued Nov 2016 First/Last forecast is for NDJ/JAS Obs Nino3.4 SST: ASO-0.62 Oct-0.72 -106 -86 -51 -21 4 24 53-999-999 D NASA GMAO -60 -60 -59 -41 -14 6 19 32-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -94-101 -91 -64 -39-999-999-999-999 D JMA -114-112-108-100 -85 -67 -49 -34 -23 D SCRIPPS -39 -18 13 32 37 35 29 11 -24 D LDEO -65 -67 -62 -51 -39 -28 -17-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -37 -21 -4 8 19-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -58 -37 -4 24-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -47 -43 -43 -46 -51 -54 -58 -56 -47 D KMA SNU -76 -73 -61 -47 -39 -39 -42 -46 -56 D IOCAS ICM -55 -51 -44 -29 -11 1 5 5 4 D COLA CCSM4 -76 -64 -52 -41 -26-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -59 -53 -50 -43 -36 -27 -18 -8 -2 D SINTEX-F -31 -59 -72 -70 -63 -46-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -74 -59 -32 -3 30 55 78 104 120 D GFDL CM2.1 -36 -21 -18 -10 4 25 46 59 67 D CMC CANSIP -79 -65 -48 -27 -6 20 49 79 104 D GFDL FLOR -67 -58 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -28 -25 S CPC MRKOV -19 -7 4 16 19 23 26 23 21 S CDC LIM -43 -30 -16 1 14 15 02 -10 -12 S CPC CA -31 -31 -27 -12 4 15 17 16 16 S CPC CCA -76 -65 -55 -44 -32 -20 -8 -6 -4 S CSU CLIPR -37 -20 -4 13 29 36 44 51 46 S UBC NNET -88 -94 -87 -68 -43 -17 6 26 43 S FSU REGR -58 -42 -26 -12 -4 1 5 8 9 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Dec 2016 First/Last forecast is for DJF/ASO Obs Nino3.4 SST: SON-0.63 Nov-0.55 -85 -57 -25 5 25 53 91-999-999 D NASA GMAO -49 -47 -45 -38 -33 -26 -14 -4-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -80 -73 -53 -37 -30-999-999-999-999 D JMA -2 30 52 61 60 52 34 0 -33 D LDEO -41 -32 -19 -7 2 10 20-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -22 -7 6 15 26-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -6 19 42 64-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -24 -21 -22 -25 -29 -30 -31 -24 -16 D KMA SNU -35 -28 -14 -5 -2 -4 -8 -15 -28 D IOCAS ICM -22 -5 6 13 17 16 6 -8 -20 D COLA CCSM4 -59 -43 -29 -15 2-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -50 -48 -45 -30 -15 5 26 40 51 D SINTEX-F -39 -35 -37 -37 -33 -23-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -27 -10 13 33 47 59 71 80 81 D GFDL CM2.1 -22 -18 -4 12 31 48 57 61 63 D CMC CANSIP -42 -31 -13 9 33 60 86 105 115 D GFDL FLOR -45 -40 -39 -37 -33 -31 -30 -28 -25 S CPC MRKOV -25 -11 3 17 21 25 30 27 24 S CDC LIM -47 -29 -6 14 27 25 25 36 45 S CPC CA 24 26 33 42 42 32 17 10 6 S CPC CCA -50 -38 -25 -13 -23 -32 -42 -42 -41 S CSU CLIPR -32 -21 -5 12 28 32 37 41 40 S UBC NNET -49 -34 -15 6 26 43 58 65 76 S FSU REGR -14 04 0 -2 -6 -9 -10 -11 -14 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jan 2017 First/Last forecast is for JFM/SON Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND-0.57 Dec-0.42 -26 -3 20 44 74 110 135-999-999 D NASA GMAO -7 13 23 30 33 32 24 24-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -54 -44 -34 -31 -33-999-999-999-999 D JMA -51 -46 -37 -24 -10 3 13 18 17 D SCRIPPS 11 17 8 -11 -35 -52 -67 -65 -47 D LDEO -29 -7 14 30 42 52 60-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 1 14 25 40 60-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 22 45 61 80-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -16 -15 -15 -16 -16 -10 -2 8 15 D KMA SNU -23 -8 3 8 9 8 6 -3 -10 D IOCAS ICM 4 17 27 36 41 43 42 40 36 D COLA CCSM4 -31 -19 -7 5 21-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -16 -6 2 13 28 43 49 52 51 D SINTEX-F -13 -15 -26 -37 -33 -17-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 5 25 41 47 52 55 56 57 54 D GFDL CM2.1 -5 14 31 53 83 112 132 143 151 D CMC CANSIP -14 0 15 35 57 76 87 91 95 D GFDL FLOR -31 -32 -32 -30 -30 -30 -30 -30 -28 S CPC MRKOV -31 -16 -4 6 11 14 14 12 8 S CDC LIM -27 -10 2 9 6 6 19 28 30 S CPC CA 20 27 36 32 12 -13 -25 -33 -42 S CPC CCA -113 -98 -83 -68 -57 -45 -34 -37 -39 S CSU CLIPR -9 8 25 41 58 62 67 71 61 S UBC NNET -21 -6 10 25 39 53 62 73 82 S FSU REGR -5 -3 -6 -12 -16 -19 -21 -26 -33 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Feb 2017 First/Last forecast is for FMA/OND Obs Nino3.4 SST: OND-0.43 Jan-0.32 19 46 66 92 127 154 165-999-999 D NASA GMAO 12 48 73 88 96 107 108 111-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -5 8 10 4 -7-999-999-999-999 D JMA 8 4 -11 -34 -54 -72 -73 -61 -29 D LDEO 24 38 45 56 64 74 83-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 18 38 59 82 102-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 52 75 93 106-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -32 -29 -25 -16 -5 10 21 30 32 D KMA SNU 33 49 63 71 79 86 89 89 91 D IOCAS ICM 18 35 49 59 67 71 73 71 69 D COLA CCSM4 15 38 49 67 90-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 30 54 71 89 103 108 108 111 116 D SINTEX-F -17 -19 -25 -25 -15 4-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 10 41 73 105 136 155 154 144 137 D GFDL CM2.1 23 32 40 55 70 84 95 106 119 D CMC CANSIP -7 21 49 80 107 127 136 143 151 D GFDL FLOR -32 -32 -32 -33 -35 -38 -40 -41 -39 S CPC MRKOV -26 -14 -6 -2 0 -2 -5 -9 -13 S CDC LIM -15 -10 -09 -13 -14 -03 1 3 -3 S CPC CA 29 44 45 34 17 11 6 -2 -12 S CPC CCA -11 -7 -3 1 -7 -16 -24 -15 -7 S CSU CLIPR 6 25 40 55 70 72 74 76 63 S UBC NNET -12 2 15 28 39 46 56 65 75 S FSU REGR -13 -5 2 9 17 23 27 28 26 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Mar 2017 First/Last forecast is for MAM/NDJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: DJF-0.20 Feb 0.14 28 43 66 94 117 133 146-999-999 D NASA GMAO 34 57 72 76 74 70 76 83-999 D NCEP CFSv2 44 57 59 57 54-999-999-999-999 D JMA 72 84 104 134 162 188 207 212 191 D SAUDI-KAU 21 15 -2 -22 -45 -57 -60 -46 -21 D LDEO 55 76 89 108 125 138 152-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 39 62 82 100 111-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 67 88 112 130-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -3 0 13 30 45 56 61 62 57 D KMA SNU 32 56 65 73 80 82 79 78 82 D IOCAS ICM 56 73 88 107 126 139 146 152 155 D COLA CCSM4 32 57 91 131 164-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 7 0 -8 15 37 74-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 76 106 132 153 158 141 119 102 88 D GFDL CM2.1 56 69 89 111 127 138 152 173 188 D CMC CANSIP 52 72 90 104 111 113 118 125 132 D GFDL FLOR -6 -7 -9 -12 -15 -16 -17 -15 -7 S CPC MRKOV 15 17 11 11 25 32 27 16 5 S CPC CA 22 33 45 56 62 69 75 78 82 S CSU CLIPR 31 40 51 63 74 74 74 74 62 S UBC NNET 21 27 34 42 45 49 54 61 61 S FSU REGR 54 72 89 104 118 129 137 138 130 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Apr 2017 First/Last forecast is for AMJ/DJF Obs Nino3.4 SST: JFM-0.03 Mar 0.10 23 46 71 94 111 125 133-999-999 D NASA GMAO 50 76 83 79 73 78 93 101-999 D NCEP CFSv2 67 77 80 81 93-999-999-999-999 D JMA 51 44 35 26 17 5 -8 -22 -38 D SCRIPPS 78 97 118 136 148 164 184 194 179 D SAUDI-KAU 27 24 12 -4 -16 -24 -29 -27 -18 D LDEO 38 43 58 75 90 104 117-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 43 63 83 92 108-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 37 40 45 57-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 5 19 40 60 72 79 77 71 60 D KMA SNU 62 75 86 93 94 91 89 93 94 D IOCAS ICM 56 70 74 73 71 71 73 74 75 D COLA CCSM4 36 60 77 94 107-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 75 102 129 152 167 176 182 188 184 D SINTEX-F 14 30 60 85 106 119-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 76 116 151 163 154 144 143 137 119 D GFDL CM2.1 69 83 97 105 109 117 133 147 147 D CMC CANSIP 66 97 129 155 177 197 210 211 196 D GFDL FLOR -13 -16 -21 -26 -31 -36 -36 -30 -22 S CPC MRKOV 34 37 42 58 74 80 79 71 55 S CPC CA 41 50 58 67 77 87 97 90 83 S CSU CLIPR 31 41 51 62 72 73 75 76 64 S UBC NNET 0 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -5 -5 -8 S FSU REGR 61 83 98 109 115 118 117 110 98 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued May 2017 First/Last forecast is for MJJ/JFM Obs Nino3.4 SST: FMA 0.20 Apr 0.32 70 86 99 109 121 128 132-999-999 D NASA GMAO 50 45 39 35 34 33 27 17-999 D NCEP CFSv2 65 70 71 83 98-999-999-999-999 D JMA 57 80 95 97 92 89 90 87 81 D BCC_CSM11m 58 76 87 89 92 101 119 132 130 D SAUDI-KAU 50 44 32 25 24 19 12 3 3 D LDEO 30 15 9 16 23 30 34-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 59 70 73 78 89-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 45 46 50 59-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 28 46 68 82 89 89 81 70 61 D KMA SNU 69 88 103 111 115 118 124 123 113 D IOCAS ICM 41 42 40 36 32 30 32 39 53 D COLA CCSM4 54 67 79 88 95-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 60 75 89 100 110 125 132 130 115 D SINTEX-F 26 43 51 59 55 46-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 63 80 92 86 75 62 54 44 33 D GFDL CM2.1 85 95 100 106 119 137 150 153 138 D CMC CANSIP 59 82 97 104 115 131 146 152 146 D GFDL FLOR 45 36 27 17 5 -8 -22 -38 -61 D SCRIPPS -10 -15 -20 -24 -27 -27 -21 -14 -10 S CPC MRKOV 56 65 81 97 106 108 102 86 59 S CPC CA 62 62 63 63 74 85 96 81 65 S CSU CLIPR 58 71 76 82 87 84 82 79 67 S UBC NNET 8 0 -3 -7 -9 -11 -11 -13 -13 S FSU REGR 69 83 93 99 100 97 90 80 70 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jun 2017 First/Last forecast is for JJA/FMA Obs Nino3.4 SST: MAM 0.30 May 0.46 21 12 10 13 17 18 20-999-999 D NASA GMAO 58 55 44 37 35 23 0 -10-999 D NCEP CFSv2 27 21 23 25 27-999-999-999-999 D JMA 35 41 55 67 75 82 87 88 78 D BCC_CSM11m 71 83 89 93 95 100 105 106 99 D SAUDI-KAU 41 28 20 18 10 0 -7 -4 4 D LDEO -26 -51 -50 -38 -32 -32 -30-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 32 25 28 35 44-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 14 8 9 18-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 46 63 78 87 86 81 70 63 54 D KMA SNU 65 72 82 84 83 85 91 92 86 D IOCAS ICM 30 6 -14 -21 -26 -32 -29 -14 6 D COLA CCSM4 26 25 24 21 19-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 33 35 38 43 51 59 59 49 37 D SINTEX-F 16 23 19 5 1 -16-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 26 21 18 15 17 23 22 17 16 D GFDL CM2.1 65 63 62 65 71 76 76 60 51 D CMC CANSIP 07 0 -2 -4 -4 2 10 20 32 D GFDL FLOR 37 29 18 6 -7 -21 -38 -61 -85 D SCRIPPS -12 -17 -22 -25 -25 -20 -13 -10 -11 S CPC MRKOV 59 69 82 91 96 93 81 59 38 S CPC CA 29 43 58 72 65 57 50 40 30 S CSU CLIPR 54 58 58 57 57 56 54 53 46 S UBC NNET 21 16 14 13 11 10 11 10 7 S FSU REGR 70 73 74 73 70 66 61 54 47 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Jul 2017 First/Last forecast is for JAS/MAM Obs Nino3.4 SST: AMJ 0.44 Jun 0.55 27 32 44 51 54 52 55-999-999 D NASA GMAO 39 27 21 12 -3 -26 -33 -17-999 D NCEP CFSv2 10 8 8 7 5-999-999-999-999 D JMA 47 56 71 81 90 89 79 58 43 D BCC_CSM11m 18 10 8 4 -2 -1 10 28 42 D SAUDI-KAU 24 17 14 4 -4 -2 12 23 31 D LDEO -15 -27 -20 -17 -17 -16 -8-999-999 D AUS/POAMA 40 35 35 37 36-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF 15 8 10 13-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 51 62 72 74 69 63 57 51 43 D KMA SNU 73 66 60 59 64 66 64 60 58 D IOCAS ICM 53 31 8 -7 -15 -18 -9 6 18 D COLA CCSM4 14 -1 -9 -12 -18-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 30 26 30 34 39 41 37 25 11 D SINTEX-F 2 -2 -3 -13 -32 -52-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM 1 -9 -8 -4 0 -1 -1 6 14 D GFDL CM2.1 71 75 84 92 95 94 78 72 67 D CMC CANSIP 19 21 24 28 33 35 36 37 38 D GFDL FLOR -8 -9 -10 -7 -1 6 8 5 31 S CPC MRKOV 54 65 77 84 84 74 56 39 29 S CPC CA 27 40 53 66 57 47 38 29 19 S CSU CLIPR 35 25 25 24 24 28 33 37 37 S UBC NNET 44 42 40 38 36 36 32 22 4 S FSU REGR 45 45 44 41 36 31 26 22 19 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Aug 2017 First/Last forecast is for ASO/AMJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: MJJ 0.47 Jul 0.39 -41 -36 -25 -16 -7 4 14-999-999 D NASA GMAO 10 -13 -27 -44 -62 -66 -48 -14-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -33 -33 -33 -36 -36-999-999-999-999 D JMA 31 49 69 75 76 75 73 64 54 D BCC_CSM11m -9 -10 -11 -17 -14 0 20 35 42 D SAUDI-KAU 29 26 15 8 12 32 47 54 60 D LDEO -24 -18 -12 -14 -15 -10 3-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -3 2 11 17 20-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -47 -47 -41 -30-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO 21 29 34 35 31 30 25 21 14 D KMA SNU -03 -10 -20 -18 -11 -1 10 19 28 D IOCAS ICM -3 -31 -54 -67 -73 -69 -47 -22 0 D COLA CCSM4 -25 -49 -56 -61 -61-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE 8 16 26 30 25 9 -7 -16 -18 D SINTEX-F 18 17 14 -2 -19 -27-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -44 -55 -53 -44 -22 -1 16 25 31 D GFDL CM2.1 19 16 15 15 16 11 16 26 43 D CMC CANSIP -20 -12 -8 -3 05 18 35 51 71 D GFDL FLOR -6 -8 -7 -1 4 5 2 -1 -2 S CPC MRKOV 45 51 54 53 43 28 16 11 8 S CPC CA 9 15 20 26 21 17 12 22 31 S CSU CLIPR -5 -27 -24 -21 -18 -6 6 18 23 S UBC NNET 39 41 44 44 40 33 25 16 5 S FSU REGR 27 24 20 17 15 13 10 8 8 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Sep 2017 First/Last forecast is for SON/MJJ Obs Nino3.4 SST: JJA 0.26 Aug-0.15 -67 -69 -59 -49 -33 -16 0-999-999 D NASA GMAO -61 -96-123-147-155-137-100 -63-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -65 -71 -79 -74 -58-999-999-999-999 D JMA -48 -50 -42 -38 -32 -18 2 27 47 D BCC_CSM11m -31 -23 -20 -16 -5 12 28 37 44 D SAUDI-KAU 0 -11 -17 -9 14 35 46 54 59 D LDEO -63 -68 -71 -73 -68 -54 -38-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -61 -72 -69 -57 -40-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -91-111-109 -96-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -28 -21 -14 -11 -7 -6 -7 -9 -11 D KMA SNU -55 -62 -63 -55 -37 -17 2 19 35 D IOCAS ICM -54 -79-115-136-135-113 -86 -66 -56 D COLA CCSM4 -83-112-116-100 -86-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -55 -50 -44 -42 -40 -40 -43 -42 -33 D SINTEX-F -13 -28 -57 -74 -77 -59-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -92-111-108 -87 -51 -16 14 42 73 D GFDL CM2.1 -46 -54 -57 -55 -50 -29 -3 29 62 D CMC CANSIP -68 -75 -73 -66 -49 -22 4 30 56 D GFDL FLOR -45 -45 -39 -31 -26 -25 -22 -17 -14 S CPC MRKOV 24 29 30 22 11 07 12 19 13 S CPC CA 32 23 13 4 12 19 27 17 7 S CSU CLIPR -38 -50 -42 -35 -27 -12 3 18 24 S UBC NNET -18 -21 -22 -20 -16 -12 -6 -1 3 S FSU REGR -24 -31 -37 -40 -42 -43 -42 -42 -42 S UCLA-TCD end Forecast issued Oct 2017 First/Last forecast is for OND/JJA Obs Nino3.4 SST: JAS-0.07 Sep-0.47 -99-108-106 -98 -83 -61 -39-999-999 D NASA GMAO -66 -91-127-138-118 -82 -51 -26-999 D NCEP CFSv2 -82-100-102 -87 -63-999-999-999-999 D JMA -77 -79 -58 -31 -2 23 43 56 65 D BCC_CSM11m -60 -49 -37 -19 0 20 32 44 57 D SAUDI-KAU -46 -49 -37 -8 18 38 53 62 64 D LDEO -63 -75 -73 -61 -42 -25 -11-999-999 D AUS/POAMA -75 -82 -70 -52 -36-999-999-999-999 D ECMWF -109-116-106 -81-999-999-999-999-999 D UKMO -50 -42 -34 -28 -23 -19 -20 -19 -16 D KMA SNU -34 -48 -45 -34 -19 -07 03 12 16 D IOCAS ICM -43 -77-108-112 -93 -62 -37 -24 -26 D COLA CCSM4 -108-121-117-102 -86-999-999-999-999 D MetFRANCE -59 -61 -54 -47 -42 -42 -39 -31 -20 D SINTEX-F -25 -43 -66 -69 -57 -43-999-999-999 D CS-IRI-MM -122-125-102 -63 -22 15 48 81 115 D GFDL CM2.1 -59 -71 -65 -53 -28 -5 20 45 66 D CMC CANSIP -94 -88 -74 -59 -38 -12 18 48 76 D GFDL FLOR -45 -46 -44 -40 -38 -35 -31 -24 -18 S PSD-CU LIM -75 -69 -58 -50 -44 -37 -29 -22 -16 S CPC MRKOV 1 4 -3 -11 -7 5 18 13 3 S CPC CA -46 -41 -35 -30 -26 -22 -18 -27 -36 S CSU CLIPR -67 -79 -67 -56 -44 -25 -5 14 22 S UBC NNET -64 -68 -64 -54 -41 -29 -19 -10 -2 S FSU REGR -59 -64 -62 -55 -47 -40 -37 -37 -42 S UCLA-TCD end