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Forecast Verification
Forecast Verification
The probabilistic retroactive forecasts can be verified using a range of graphical techniques available from the
Tools ~ Verification menu item. The forecasts for all locations / indices are pooled when
calculating the results.
The following options are available:
- Reliability diagrams: a diagram is produced for each category, plus and
additional one for the three categories combined;
- ROC diagram: curves are drawn for each of the three categories;
- Scores: various category-specific and overall probabilistic verification scores are
calculated;
- Skill Maps: skill maps for the various probabilsitic verification scores are
plotted;
- Tendency Diagram; a graph indicating unconditional biases in the forecast is
drawn;
- Ranked-Hits Diagram; a graph indicating the frequencies that the forecast with the
highest, second highest, and lowest probabilities are drawn;
- Weather Roulette: a cumulative profits diagram and an effective interest
rate diagram is drawn.
The results for the various verification procedures can be saved by right-clicking on the graphic. For further details see
Tools - Verification.
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