Figure 4.1c The bars show the actual flow observed in each year. The 50% probability line in (b) represents the median within the distribution of flows to expect for each year. The correlation between the median forecast and observed is 0.91, and the pseudo-likelihood ration of the forecast relative to climatology is 1.3. (from De Souza Filho and Lall). from De Souza Filho and Lall, 2002