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Scores
Various probabilistic verification scores are calculated for the retroactive forecasts by pooling all gridpoints / stations /
series. By default, the 2AFC scores for the individual categories will not necessarily agree with the ROC areas shown on the
ROC graphs because the areas are calculated using binned forecast probabilities, whereas
the scores page shows scores for continuous probabilities. the following scores can be calculated using binned probabilities
if the appropriate Verification Settings option is selected:
- Ignorance score (all-category and category-specific)
- Brier score and skill score
- Ranked probability score and skill score
- ROC areas
The ignorance and Brier score decompositions are calculated using binned probabilities, regardless of the setting. In most
cases it is probably preferable not to bin the probabilities, but if it is important for the ROC areas to be consistent with
those indicated on the ROC diagrams, or to have total scores consistent with their
decompositions, for eample, then binning the probabilities may be desirable.
There is an option to calculate bootstrap confidence intervals for the scores from
Options ~ Resampling Settings.
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