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Probabilistic Forecast

A map is shown indicating the forecast probability for the category with the highest probability. If more than one forecast is produced, the forecasts can be cycled using the up and down arrows, or typing in the year. The probabilities are derived from the best-guess forecast (the regression estimate from the CCA, PCR, or MLR model) by assuming that the errors in the best-guess forecast will be normally distributed (or, more strictly, will follow a Student's t distribution), with the variance of the errors defined by the sampling errors in the regression parameters, and by the variance of the errors in the cross-validated predictions (alternative error variances can be set using Options ~ Forecast Settings). If the Y data have been transformed it is assumed that the forecast errors of the transformed data will be normally distributed. From the best-guess forecast and the assumed error variance and distribution the probabilities of exceeding the various thresholds can be calculated.

The map can be saved as a BMP, EMF, GIF, JPEG, PCX, or PNG file by right-clicking anywhere in the child window, and then selecting Export from the pop-up menu. A default name is given to the graphic file, but this name can be changed using the browse button. The quality of the JPEG file can be adjusted using the slider or by the quality indicator, which ranges between 0.01 and 1.00. The highest quality is obtained using 1.00. The size of the JPEG file is affected by the quality chosen, with larger files being generated the higher the selected quality. The image quality for all the graphics formats can be improved by increasing the size of the image (see Options ~ Graphics ~ Graph Scaling). The map title can be reset using the Customise option upon right-clicking in the child window. Further options for customizing the map, including masking lakes or land areas, resetting the size of the fonts and of the image itself, are available from Options ~ Graphics.

The forecast probabilities can be saved from the Forecasts tab in File ~ Output Results.


 
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