A very strong 2026 El Niño is intensifying, with Niño 3.4 hitting +3.0°C (mid-Sept) and subsurface heat surging. All 22 forecast models agree it will strengthen further, staying “very strong” through winter 2026–27. El Niño probability is 100% through Feb 2027, dropping to 61% by mid-2027. Could rank among the strongest El Niño events on record.