As of mid-May 2026, the equatorial Pacific is rapidly transitioning into El Niño conditions. While monthly SST anomalies remain near the borderline El Niño threshold, weekly values have surged well above it, with the last three weekly pentads firmly reaching +0.9 °C in the Niño3.4 region. This sharp warming strongly indicates that the currently near neutral seasonal averages will rise substantially in the coming months, marking a clear shift from ENSO neutral to El Niño conditions. The latest CCSR/IRI ENSO plume forecast further supports this evolution, assigning a 98% probability to El Niño during May–July 2026 compared to only 2% for continued neutrality. El Niño conditions are then likely to persist through the remainder of 2026, with forecast probabilities consistently maintained within a remarkably high and narrow 97–98% range.