As of mid-February 2026, the equatorial Pacific is experiencing a declining La Niña conditions. The CCSR/IRI ENSO plume forecast places the probability of La Niña at just 4% for Feb–Apr 2026 and shifts the odds in favor of ENSO-neutral conditions (about 96%) for the same period. ENSO-neutral remains the dominant category through Mar-May (90%) and Apr-Jun (65%), while El Niño probabilities increase rapidly during same period. Starting in May-July, El Niño probabilities become higher than ENSO-neutral and remain in the range of 58% to 61%, with ENSO-neutral the second most likely outcome.