May 2024 Quick Look

As of mid-April 2024, El Niño conditions still persist in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, with important oceanic and atmospheric indicators aligning with an ongoing El Niño event that is gradually diminishing. Most models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast a transition of the El Niño event to ENSO-neutral in Apr-Jun, 2024, which then persists during boreal summer seasons of May-Jul, and Jun-Aug, 2024. La Niña becomes the most probable category in Aug-Oct 2024 through Dec-Feb 2025, while no category is dominant during Jul-Sep 2024.