As of mid-January 2026, the equatorial Pacific remains in a La Niña state. The CCSR/IRI ENSO plume forecast places the probability of La Niña at 31% for Jan–Mar 2026 and shifts the odds in favor of ENSO-neutral conditions (about 69%) for the same period. ENSO-neutral remains the dominant category through May-Jul 2026. Beyond that, El Niño probabilities become higher than ENSO-neutral, although they remain in the range of 48% to 51%, with ENSO-neutral still the second most likely outcome.