As of mid-November 2025, the equatorial Pacific is in a La Niña state, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region hovering near the La Niña threshold and continuing a gradual cooling trend. The IRI ENSO plume forecast places the probability of La Niña at 67% for November–January, easing to 53% for December–February 2025/26. From January–March onward, conditions begin shifting toward ENSO-neutral, which becomes the dominant outlook. Neutral probabilities rise to 63% at the start of the year and remain the leading state through the forecast period ending in July–September 2026. El Niño probabilities stay very low—below 10%—through March–May 2026, but gradually increase thereafter, reaching 16% in April–June, 27% in May–July, 32% in June–August, and 35% by July–September 2026.