As of mid-October 2025, the equatorial Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral state, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region close to average but exhibiting a gradual cooling trend. The IRI ENSO plume forecast indicates a moderate probability (65%) of La Niña conditions developing during October–December 2025. These La Niña conditions are expected to persist through the boreal winter of 2025/2026 (53%). However, beginning in January–March, ENSO-neutral conditions are forecasted to return with probabilities of 57%. The chances of El Niño development remain very low—below 10%—through March–May 2026, but increases to 14%, 22%, and 30% during April–June, May–July, and Jun-Aug 2026 respectively.