As of mid-September 2025, the equatorial Pacific remains in an ENSO-neutral state, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region close to average but exhibiting a gradual cooling trend. The IRI ENSO plume forecast indicates a moderate probability (56%) of La Niña conditions developing during September–November 2025. These La Niña conditions are expected to persist through the boreal winter of 2025/2026 (December–February). However, beginning in January–March, ENSO-neutral conditions are forecasted to return, with probabilities ranging from 55% to 74%, while the likelihood of La Niña gradually decreases. The chances of El Niño development remain very low—below 10%—through March–May 2026.