As of mid-December 2025, the equatorial Pacific is in a La Niña state, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region having crossed the La Niña threshold. The CCSR/IRI ENSO plume forecast places the probability of La Niña at 56% for Dec-Feb 2026. From Jan–Mar 2026 onward, conditions the forecasts begin shifting toward ENSO-neutral, which is forecast to become the dominant category. Neutral probabilities rise to 64% at the start of the year and remain the leading state through the forecast period ending in Aug–Oct 2026. El Niño probabilities stay very low, below 10% through Mar–May 2026, but gradually increase thereafter, reaching 14% in Apr–Jun, 26% in May–Jul, 35% in Jun–Aug, and 38% by Jul–Sep 2026.