As of mid-April 2025, the equatorial Pacific is in an ENSO-neutral state. This shift is marked by sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region that are now closer to average, with anomalies at 0.10°C for Mar, 2025. The IRI ENSO plume forecast indicates a high probability (96%) of ENSO-neutral conditions for April to June 2025. These neutral conditions are expected to continue through August to October 2025, with probabilities staying above 50%. For later forecast seasons, ENSO-neutral conditions remain the most likely outcome, though probabilities decrease to the 40% range. During the forecast period, neither El Niño nor La Niña shows a strong preference, with the probabilities for both phases gradually increasing and then stabilizing in the upper 20% range.
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