CPC/IRI ENSO Update

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

Dec 5, 2013

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern summer 2014

During November, ENSO-neutral persisted, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). Oceanhemispheresynopsiso-3.4 and Ni:Fig. 2Fig. 3), due to the eastward propagation of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. This increased heat content reflects above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific (Fig. 4). The wind anomalies remained small at lower and upper levels during the month. Equatorial convection was suppressed in the central equatorial Pacific and enhanced over (Fig. 5

The majority of model forecasts indicate that ENSO-neutral (NiAo-3.4 index between -0. and 0.) will persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). While current forecast probabilities are still greatest for ENSO-neutral by mid-summer, there is an increasing chance for the development of El The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El NiNoaa2014ni201455oo/La Ni. >).Indonesiaincreasedaa Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Ni>). Regionso/La Ni>Cpca are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 5 December 2013. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

CPC/ Early- Consensus ENSO Forecast Probabilities

Season	La NiMonthiria	Neutral	El Ni
NDJ 2014	3%	95%	2%
DJF 2014	4%	91%	5%
JFM 2014	6%	87%	7%
FMA 2014	7%	79%	14%
MAM 2014	7%	72%	21%
AMJ 2014	8%	60%	32%
MJJ 2014	8%	53%	39%
JJA 2014	8%	48%	44%
JAS 2014	8%	47%	45%

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