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ENSO Quick Look IRI ENSO Update / Prediction Technical ENSO Update IRI Probabilistic ENSO Prediction ENSO Prediction Plume Monthly archive ENSO Update18 August 2011SummarySince the ending of the moderate to strong La Niña episode in early May 2011, neutral ENSO conditions have prevailed. For the August-October season currently in progress, there is an approximately 36% probability for returning to La Niña conditions, a 63% probability for remaining in neutral conditions, and a 1% probability for the development of El Niño conditions. Although neutral conditions are still the most likely scenario throughout the remainder of 2011, the re-emergence of La Niña conditions is also more than a slight possibility.General Discussion
In mid-August 2011, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index maintained values
indicative of neutral ENSO conditions (-0.5 degrees C away from average),
although near the borderline of weak La Niña. Overall conditions below
the ocean surface remain near average, but have become slightly below average
during late July and August. Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific feature
an average to slightly enhanced strength of easterlies, and
the Southern Oscillation Index is slightly above average levels.
These observations indicate the maintenance of neutral ENSO conditions, but
leaning increasingly toward cool condtions.
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