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ENSO Quick Look IRI ENSO Update / Prediction Technical ENSO Update IRI Probabilistic ENSO Prediction ENSO Prediction Plume Monthly archive ENSO Update21 July 2011SummarySince the ending of the moderate to strong La Niña episode in early May 2011, neutral ENSO conditions have prevailed. For the July-September season currently in progress, there is an approximately 10% probability for returning to La Niña conditions, an 82% probability for remaining in neutral conditions, and an 8% probability for the development of El Niño conditions. Although neutral conditions are the most likely scenario throughout the remainder of 2011, development of El Niño conditions or, particularly, the re-emergence of La Niña conditions, cannot be ruled out.General Discussion
In mid-July 2011, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index maintained values
indicative of neutral ENSO conditions (-0.1 degrees C away from average),
while overall conditions below the ocean surface remain near
average. Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial
Pacific feature an average to slightly enhanced strength of easterlies, and
the Southern Oscillation Index is near average levels. These observations
indicate the presence of neutral ENSO conditions.
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