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ENSO Quick Look IRI ENSO Update / Prediction Technical ENSO Update IRI Probabilistic ENSO Prediction ENSO Prediction Plume Monthly archive ENSO Update17 March 2011SummaryThe moderate to strong La Niña conditions that were observed betweeen mid-August 2010 and early February 2011 have weakened to weak to moderate strength as of mid-March 2011. For the March-May season currently in progress, there is an approximately 75% probability for continuing La Niña conditions, and a 24% probability for returning to neutral ENSO conditions. Probabilities for La Niña conditions drop to just below 50% for the April-June season.General Discussion
In mid-March 2011, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index has weakened to values
indicative of weak to moderate La Niña levels (1.0
degrees C below average). Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial
Pacific continue to feature stronger than average easterlies, and
the Southern Oscillation Index continues to be well above average, but
the subsurface oceanic heat content has weakened to near average.
These observations indicate continuing but weakening La Niña
conditions. It is likely that the ENSO conditions will become
neutral during the coming one to two months. However, because the
atmospheric aspects of this La Niña are expected to continue
longer than the oceanic aspects, some of the climate conditions
associated with La Niña may remain through the end of May.
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