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ENSO Update
18 November 2010
Summary
Monderate to strong La Niña conditions have been observed
since mid-August 2010. For the November-January
season currently in progress, there is an approximately
99% probability for continuing La Niña
conditions, and a 1% probability for returning to neutral ENSO conditions.
Probabilities for La Niña conditions continue at 92% or more through
the January-February-March season of 2010/11, and do not drop to below
50% until the April-June season.
General Discussion
In mid-November, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index continues at values
indicative of moderate La Niña levels (1.3
degrees C below average). Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial
Pacific continue to feature stronger than average easterlies, and
subsurface oceanic heat content continues to be well below average.
These observations indicate a high probability of the continuation, and
possibly slight further strengthening, of La Niña conditions.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical prediction models,
100% of them indicate maintenance of La Niña conditions during
the upcoming December-February 2010/11 season.
Overall, based on model predictions and current observations of the
ocean surface and subsurface, for the coming November-January season the probability
for La Niña conditions is approximately 97%, and remain at 92% or higher
through the January-March season of 2011. By the March-May season
the probability for La Niña conditions is estimated at
approximately 62%, decreasing rapidly during later northern spring 2011.
Probabilities for El Niño conditions are less than 10% through
March-May 2011, rising to 25% by July-September.
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