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ENSO Update
21 October 2010
Summary
Weak La Niña conditions emerged in mid-June 2010, increased
to moderate strength by mid-July, and have been at moderate to
strong levels since mid-August. For the October-December
season currently in progress, there is an approximately
99% probability for continuing La Niña
conditions, and a 1% probability for returning to neutral ENSO conditions.
Probabilities for La Niña conditions continue at 95% or more through
the December-February season of 2010/11, and do not drop to below
50% until the April-June season.
General Discussion
In mid-October, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index continues at values
indicative of moderate to strong La Niña levels (between 1.5
and 1.8 degrees C below average). Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial
Pacific continue to feature stronger than average easterlies, and
subsurface oceanic heat content continues to be well below average.
These observations indicate a high probability of the continuation, and
possibly slight further strengthening, of La Niña conditions.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical prediction models,
100% of them indicate maintenance of La Niña conditions during
the upcoming November-January 2010/11 season.
Overall, based on model predictions and current observations of the
ocean surface and subsurface, for the coming November-January season the probability
for La Niña conditions is approximately 98%, and remain at 90% or higher
through the January-March season of 2011. By the March-May season
the probability for La Niña conditions is estimated at
approximately 62%, decreasing rapidly during later northern spring 2011.
Probabilities for El Niño conditions are less than 10% through
March-May 2011, rising to 23% by June-August.
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