ENSO Quick Look
IRI ENSO Update / Prediction
Technical ENSO Update
IRI Probabilistic ENSO Prediction
ENSO Prediction Plume
Monthly archive
ENSO Update
16 September 2010
Summary
Weak La Niña conditions emerged in mid-June 2010, increased
to moderate strength by mid-July, and have continued to strengthen
to moderate/strong through mid-September. For the September-November
season currently in progress, there is an approximately
98% probability for continuing La Niña
conditions, and a 2% probability for returning to neutral ENSO conditions.
Probabilities for La Niña conditions continue at 95% or more through
the December-February season of 2010/11, and first drop to below
50% during April-June season of 2011.
General Discussion
By mid-September, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index decreased to values
indicative of moderate to strong La Niña levels (near 1.5
degrees C below average). Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial
Pacific have featured stronger than average easterlies, and
subsurface oceanic heat content continues to be well below average.
These observations indicate a high probability of the continuation, and
likely some further strengthening, of La Niño conditions.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical prediction models,
95% indicate maintenance of La Niña conditions during the upcoming
October-December season, while 5% indicate a return to ENSO-neutral
conditions. Overall, based on model predictions and current observations of the
ocean surface and subsurface, for the coming October-December season the probability
for La Niña conditions is approximately 98%, and remain at 90% or higher
through the January-March season of 2011. By March-May season
the probability for La Niña conditions is estimated at
approximately 82%, decreasing rapidly during later northern spring 2011.
Probabilities for El Niño conditions are negligible through March-May of 2011.
Top of Page
|
 | |
|
|
