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ENSO Update
19 August 2010
Summary
Weak La Niña conditions emerged in mid-June 2010, and increased
to moderate strength by mid-July. For the August-October
season currently in progress, there is an approximately
96% probability for continuing La Niña
conditions, and a 4% probability for returning to neutral ENSO conditions.
Probabilities for La Niña conditions continue at more than 90%
through the remainder of 2010 and in the 80%-90% range during the early
months of 2011.
General Discussion
By mid-July, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index decreased to values
indicative of moderate La Niña levels (between 1 and 1.5
degrees C below average). Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial
Pacific have featured stronger than average easterlies, and
subsurface oceanic heat content continues to be well below average.
These observations indicate a high probability of the continuation, and
likely some further strengthening, La Niño conditions.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical prediction models,
96% indicate maintenance of La Niña conditions during the upcoming
September-October-November season, while 4% indicate a return to ENSO-neutral
conditions. Overall, based on model predictions and current observations of the
ocean surface and subsurface, for the coming September-November season the probability
for La Niña conditions is approximately 95%, while throughout
the remainder of 2010 probabilities remain between 90 and 95%. By the January-March
season of 2011 the probability for La Niña conditions is estimated at
approximately 85%, decreasing rapidly by April 2011. Probabilities for El
Niño conditions are negligible through early 2011.
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