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ENSO Update
15 July 2010
Summary
Following the dissipation of the 2009/10 El Niño in early May 2010,
a brief period of ENSO-neutral conditions was observed until mid-June,
when weak La Niña conditions emerged. For the July-September
season currently in progress, there is an approximately
80% probability for continuing La Niña
conditions, and a 20% probability for returning neutral ENSO conditions.
Probabilities for La Niña conditions continue at approximately 80%
through the remainder of 2010.
General Discussion
By mid-July, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index decreased to values
indicative of weak La Niña levels (roughly three-quarters of a
degree C below average). Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have
featured slightly stronger than average easterlies, and
subsurface heat content became well below average by mid-May as the
El Niño rapidly ended, soon to be replaced by the current
weak but strengthening La Niño conditions.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical prediction models,
82% indicate maintenance of La Niña conditions during the upcoming
July-August-September season, while 18% indicate a return to ENSO-neutral
conditions. Overall, based on model predictions and current observations of the
ocean surface and subsurface, for the coming August-October season and throughout
the remainder of 2010 the probability for La Niña conditions is estimated
at near 80%, and for ENSO-neutral conditions approximately 20%. Probabilities for
a return to El Niño conditions are negligible through early 2011.
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