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ENSO Update
17 June 2010
Summary
Following the dissipation of the 2009/10 El Niño in early May 2010,
ENSO-neutral conditions were observed. However, borderline La Niña
conditions have just recently appeared in mid-June. For the June-August season in
progress, there is an approximately 58% probability for developing La Niña
conditions, and a 41% probability for maintaining neutral ENSO conditions.
Probabilities for La Niña conditions increase to approximately 62%
from the August-October season through the remainder of 2010.
General Discussion
By mid-June, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index decreased to values
near the borderline of weak La Niña levels.
Since early March zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have
assumed near-average to slightly stronger than average easterlies, while
subsurface heat content rapidly decreased through average to now well
below-average levels as cooler than average subsurface sea temperatures
occupied the central and east-central tropical Pacific.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical prediction models,
61% indicate development of La Niña conditions during the upcoming
July-August-September season, while 39% indicate maintenance of ENSO-neutral
conditions. Overall, based on model predictions and current observations of the
ocean surface and subsurface, for the coming August-October season and throughout
the remainder of 2010 the probability for La Niña conditions is estimated
at 62%, and for ENSO-neutral conditions approximately 37%. Probabilities for a return
to El Niño conditions are negligible through early northern spring 2011.
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