LDEO version 4 Dynamical Model (Intermediate Coupled ocean-atmosphere model)
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Palisades, New York, U.S.
Since the mid-1980s, forecasts of tropical Pacific SST anomalies have been made regularly at LDEO with a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical model (Cane et al., 1986; Zebiak and Cane, 1987). This model has played an important historic role in our understanding and prediction of ENSO. In the mid to late 1990s, we have improved the original LDEO model considerably by using a more balanced forecasting scheme (Chen et al., 1995), by applying more and better data for initialization (Chen et al., 1998, 1999), and by effectively reducing the large systematic model biases (Chen et al., 2000). The forecasts presented here are from the latest version of the LDEO model (LDEO5, Chen et al., 2004). In its present setting, the model is initialized by nudging observed SST (Climate Analysis Center), wind (Florida State University and National Centers for Environment Prediction) and sea level (University of Hawaii) anomalies into the spin-up run. Satellite derived products, such as the sea level data from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter and the wind data from NSCAT/QuikSCAT scatterometer, have also been used for model initialization since they became available.
Browse information about the model.
Browse the SST forecast graph.
A choice of formats for the current forecast (spatial vs. temporal) is provided here.
Also browsable are some publications pertinent to the model.
Dr. Chen's personal web page may be of interest.
Contact: Dr. Dake Chen: dchen@ldeo.columbia.edu
References:
Cane, M. A., S. E. Zebiak and S. C. Dolan, 1986: Experimental forecasts of El Nino. Nature, 321, 827-832.
Chen, D., M. A. Cane, A. Kaplan, S. E. Zebiak, and D. Huang, 2004: Predictability of El Nino in the past 148 years. Nature, 428 (6984), 733-736, 2004.
Chen, D., S. E. Zebiak, A. J. Busalacchi and M. A. Cane, 1995: An improved procedure for El Nino forecasting: implications for predictability. Science, 269, 1699-1702.
Chen, D., M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak, 1998: The impact of sea level data assimilation on the Lamont model prediction of the 1997/98 El Nino. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2837-2840.
Chen, D., M. A. Cane, and S. E. Zebiak, 1999: The impact of NSCAT winds on predicting the 1997/98 El Nino: A case study with the Lamont model. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 11321-11327.
Chen, D., M. A. Cane, S. E. Zebiak, Rafael Canizares and A. Kaplan, 2000: Bias correction of an ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2585-2588.
Zebiak, S. E. and M. A. Cane, 1987: A model El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2262-2278.
