| ||
|
ENSO Quick
Look IRI ENSO Update / Forecast Technical ENSO Update IRI Probabilistic ENSO Forecast ENSO Prediction Plume Monthly archive ENSO Update18 February 2010SummaryEl Niño conditions remain moderate strength in the equatorial Pacific. For the Feb-Apr season in progress there is an approximately 93% probability of maintaining El Niño conditions. Probabilities for El Niño stay above 80% through the Mar-May season, decreasing to 55-60% by Apr-Jun season and to the climatological probability of 25% by the Jul-Sep season.General Discussion
During mid-February, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index continues at
values indicative of a moderate El Niño category, having weakened
slightly from the stronger levels observed in December and early January.
Since mid-October, the event has maintanined a moderate to strong magnitude,
modulated by intermittently strong westerly wind anomalies in the western
and central tropical Pacific from September through present.
These wind anomalies deepened the thermocline and
substantially increased the SST anomalies in the central and eastern
equatorial Pacific. A significant, although recently decreasing,
accumulation of subsurface heat ensures the persistence of the
current event into April, and possibly longer. A resurgence of
particularly strong westerly wind anomalies during the first half of
February, continuing presently, is counteracting the decrease of
subsurface heat content and increasing the certainty that El Niño
conditions will persist at least through early April and more likely through
the middle of northern spring. |
 |