| ||
|
ENSO Quick
Look IRI ENSO Update / Forecast Technical ENSO Update IRI Probabilistic ENSO Forecast ENSO Prediction Plume Monthly archive ENSO Update16 July 2009SummaryThe equatorial Pacific has warmed to weak El Niño levels. During the Jul-Sep season there is an approximately 82% probability of maintaining at least weak El Niño conditions, and a 17% probability of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions. Probabilities for El Niño remain near 80% for most of the remainder of 2009, decreasing to 70-75% in early 2010 and fall below 50% during northern spring 2010.General Discussion
Between mid-June and mid-July 2009, the NINO3.4 SST anomaly index has
risen from values indicative of borderline El Niño conditions
to values well into the weak El Niño category.
Atmospheric conditions have begun showing weak signs of
El Niño, including wind and convection patterns, but these are presently
not significant. However, above-average sub-surface oceanic heat content over a
large portion of the equatorial Pacific suggests at least persistence, and
likely further development, of the oceanic aspects of El Niño.
Expected steady or increasing positive SST anomalies in the central and eastern
tropical Pacific will provide opportunity for stronger coupling to the atmosphere
during the coming several months.
|
 |