CPC Constructed Analogue (CA)     Statistical Model

NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Camp Springs, Maryland, U.S.

Because natural analogues are highly unlikely to occur in high degree-of-freedom processes, we benefit from constructing an analogue having greater similarity than the best natural analogue. The construction is a linear combination of past observed anomaly patterns in the predictor fields such that the combination is as close as desired to the initial state (or 'base'). We use as our predictor (the analogue selection criterion) the first 5 EOFs of the global SST field at four consecutive 3-month periods prior to forecast time.

CA forecasts can be found on Dr. van den Dool's non-operational (personal) CPC web site.

Contact: Huug van den Dool: Huug.Vandendool@noaa.gov

References:
van den Dool, H.M., 1994: Searching for analogues, how long must we wait? Tellus, 46A, 314-324.
van den Dool, H.M. and A.G. Barnston, 1995: Forecasts of global sea surface temperature out to a year using the constructed analogue method. Proceedings of the 19th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Nov. 14-18, 1994, College Park, Maryland, 416-419.
van den Dool, H.M., J. Huang, and Y. Fan, 2003: Performance and analysis of the constructed analogue method applied to U.S. soil moisture over 1981–2001. J. Geophys. Res., 108, D16, 8617, doi:10.1029/2002JD003114.