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ENSO Update

16 October 2008

Summary

The equatorial Pacific is presently ENSO-neutral. The equatorial Pacific region shows a mix of weak above- and below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs). There is a 90 percent probability of ENSO-neutral conditions persisting over the coming season.

General Discussion

Near average conditions have reigned in the tropical Pacific since early June, following the 2007/08 La Niña event. SSTs throughout the central tropical Pacific are very weakly below-average. Above-average SSTs developed in the eastern equatorial Pacific in March, but they have weakened steadily over the last couple months and become very localized. The low level zonal wind anomalies along the equatorial Pacific, and the Southern Oscillation index, and the thermocline depth anomalies all have been near average during the last couple months, albeit with some high frequency weather variability superimposed.

Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, most models indicate ENSO-neutral SSTs during the coming Oct-Nov-Dec season. Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the probability of La Niña conditions is estimated at 8%, of El Niño conditions 2%, and the probability of maintaining ENSO-neutral conditions is 90% for the Oct-Nov-Dec season in progress.

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