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ENSO Quick
Look IRI ENSO Update / Forecast Technical ENSO Update IRI Probabilistic ENSO Forecast ENSO Prediction Plume Monthly archive ENSO Update16 July 2008SummaryLa Niña conditions have nearly completely disappeared in the equatorial Pacific. Very weak below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) still exist only near the dateline, and above-average SSTs are present in the eastern equatorial Pacific. There is a 75 percent probability of ENSO-neutral conditions over the coming season.General Discussion
The La Niña conditions that prevailed between
August 2007 and late May 2008, after peaking in February 2008, have
weakened and become near average conditions since early June. SSTs in
the central equatorial Pacific are now only weakly below average, and only
in a fairly small packet near the dateline. The low level zonal wind anomalies
along the equatorial Pacific, and the Southern Oscillation index, have
been near average during the last several weeks. The equatorial
heat content is above average in the central and eastern equatorial
Pacific, and this has helped maintain somewhat above average SSTs
in the eastern one-third of the equatorial Pacific. |
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