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ENSO Update

18 June 2008

Summary

La Niña conditions continue to weaken in the equatorial Pacific. Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) still exist in the central equatorial Pacific, but they have been trending toward neutral since February 2008. There is a 75% probability of ENSO-neutral conditions over the coming season.

General Discussion

The La Niña conditions evident since August 2007 peaked in February 2008, and have trending steadily towards ENSO-neutral conditions over the last several months. The below-average SSTs are weakening in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial heat content is increasing in the central and eastern equatorial pacific. Also, the Southern Oscillation index has been descreasing also since February 2008, suggesting steady weakening of the atmospheric manifestation of La Niña. The easterly wind anomalies observed in the central and western Pacific that had been helping maintain the La Niña conditions are also near zero currently.

Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, most models indicate ENSO-neutral SSTs during the coming Jun-Jul-Aug season. Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the probability of a La Niña conditions is estimated at 15% and the probability of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions is 75% for the Jun-Jul-Aug season in progress

Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.

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