ENSO Quick Look
IRI ENSO Update / Forecast
Technical ENSO Update
IRI Probabilistic ENSO Forecast
ENSO Prediction Plume
Monthly archive

ENSO Update

16 January 2008

Summary

La Niña conditions continue in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exist from the west coast of South America to west of the dateline. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, there is a 96% probability of maintaining La Niña conditions over the coming season.

General Discussion

The state of the tropical Pacific remains largely unchanged over the past month. La Niña conditions, which have been in place since August 2007, are indicated by substantially below-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, enhanced Trade Winds, and reduced equatorial heat content. The sea surface temperature anomalies are below -2 C throughout much of the eastern-central equatorial Pacific. Strong and very persistent easterly anomalies of the low-level winds extend across most of the equatorial Pacific. Persistence of La Niña conditions is highly likely through at least the next couple months given the current magnitude and spatial extent of the oceanic temperature anomalies.

Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, most models indicate continuation, but gradual weakening, of the moderately strong La Niña conditions through early 2008. Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the probability of a La Niña is estimated at 96% for the Jan-Feb-Mar season in progress. The probability of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions increases to the climatological value of 50%, by mid-2008.

Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.

Top of Page