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ENSO Quick
Look IRI ENSO Update / Forecast Technical ENSO Update Summary of Model Forecasts Monthly archive ENSO Update14 December 2005SummarySea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific have become cooler than average, but remain neutral in terms of the ENSO condition. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is highly likely that neutral conditions will prevail over the Dec-Jan-Feb 2005-2006 season.General DiscussionDuring November 2005, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were approximately 0.5C below average in the eastern Pacific and approximately 0.5C above average in the western Pacific. While the extent and magnitude of the colder than average conditions in the eastern Pacific have increased since mid-November, they are not expected to strengthen further through the coming season. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, none predicts sea surface temperatures reaching even weak El Niño levels through early 2006. Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the probability of a La Niña developing over the next season is approximately 10%, increasing to about 20% by mid-2006. The chances for developing El Niño conditions are estimated at less than 1% through March 2006, increasing to approximately 20% by mid-2006. The likelihood of maintaining neutral conditions remains very high through early 2006.Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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