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ENSO Quick
Look IRI ENSO Update / Forecast Technical ENSO Update Summary of Model Forecasts Monthly archive ENSO Update17 November 2005SummarySea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific remain near average, and are neutral in terms of the ENSO condition. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is virtually certain that neutral conditions will prevail over the Nov-Dec-Jan 2005-2006 season.General DiscussionDuring October 2005, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were nearly average over most of the near-equatorial Pacific, with the exception of the far eastern equatorial Pacific where SSTs were somewhat below average. There has been little to no evolution in central equatorial Pacific SST anomalies over the last several months. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, none predicts sea surface temperatures reaching even weak El Niño levels through the end of 2005. Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for developing El Niño conditions are estimated at less than 1% through the end of 2005, increasing to the climatological probability of 25% by mid-2006. The likelihood of maintaining neutral conditions is virtually certain through the end of 2005. The probability of a La Niña developing between now and the end of 2005 is less than 1%.Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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