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ENSO Quick
Look IRI ENSO Update / Forecast Technical ENSO Update Summary of Model Forecasts Monthly archive ENSO Update18 October 2005SummarySea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific remain near average, and are neutral in terms of the ENSO condition. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is approximately 98% likely that neutral conditions will prevail over the Oct-Nov-Dec 2005 season.General DiscussionDuring September 2005, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were somewhat above-average over most of the near-equatorial Pacific, with the exception of the far eastern equatorial Pacific where SSTs were somewhat below average. There has been little to no evolution in equatorial Pacific SST anomalies over the last several months. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, none predicts sea surface temperatures reaching even weak El Niño levels through the end of 2005. Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for developing El Niño conditions are estimated at less than 5% through the end of 2005, increasing to the climatological probability of 25% by late northern hemisphere spring. The likelihood of maintaining neutral conditions is at least 95% through the end of 2005. The probability of a La Niña developing between now and the end of 2005 is approximately 1%.Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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