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ENSO
Quick Look IRI ENSO Update / Forecast Technical ENSO Update Summary of Model Forecasts Monthly archive ENSO Update14 September 2005SummarySea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific are mainly near average, and are neutral in terms of the ENSO condition. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is approximately 95% likely that neutral conditions will prevail over the Sep-Oct-Nov 2005 season.General DiscussionDuring August 2005, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were somewhat above-average over most of the near-equatorial Pacific.Other than the brief development of a localized region of below-average SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific in early September 2005, there has been little to no evolution in equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, only one predicts sea surface temperatures at weak El Niño levels for the September to November period in the central Pacific. Overall, however, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for developing El Niño conditions are estimated at approximately only 5 to 10% through early 2006. The likelihood of maintaining neutral conditions is approximately 90-95% through the end of 2005. The probability of a La Niña developing between now and the end of 2005 is approximately 5%.Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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