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ENSO
Quick Look IRI ENSO Update / Forecast Technical ENSO Update Summary of Model Forecasts Monthly archive ENSO Update18 August 2005SummarySea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific are mainly near average to somewhat above average, and are neutral in terms of the ENSO condition. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is approximately 90% likely that neutral conditions will prevail over the Aug-Sep-Oct 2005 season.General DiscussionDuring July 2005, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were somewhat above-average over most of the near-equatorial Pacific. An exception is the region near the coast of equatorial South America, where SSTs were below average. During the first half of August, SSTs in the eastern half of the basin, other than the region near the coast of South America, have cooled to their average. As a result, above-average SSTs have become more limited to the western tropical Pacific. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, approximately 15 to 20% predict sea surface temperatures at weak El Ni�o levels for the August to October period in the central Pacific. Overall, however, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for returning to El Ni�o conditions are estimated at approximately only 10 to 15% through early 2006. The likelihood of maintaining neutral conditions is approximately 80-85% through the end of 2005. The probability of a La Ni�a developing between now and the end of 2005 is approximately 5%.Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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