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ENSO
Quick Look IRI ENSO Update / Forecast Technical ENSO Update Summary of Model Forecasts Monthly archive ENSO Update21 July 2005SummarySea surface temperatures across most of the equatorial Pacific are somewhat above average, but neutral in terms of the ENSO condition. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is 75% likely that neutral conditions will prevail over the Jul-Aug-Sep 2005 season.General DiscussionDuring June 2005, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were somewhat above-average over most of the near-equatorial Pacific. The exception is the region immediately off the coast of equatorial South America, where SSTs have been below average since June. Above average SSTs in the central Pacific during June have now declined somewhat. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, approximately 40% predict sea surface temperatures at weak El Niño levels for the July to September period in the central Pacific. However, overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for returning to El Niño conditions are estimated at approximately 25% through early 2006. The likelihood of maintaining neutral conditions is approximately 70-75% through through the end of 2005. The probability of a La Niña developing between now and the end of 2005 is approximately 5%.Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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