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ENSO
Quick Look IRI ENSO Update / Forecast Technical ENSO Update Summary of Model Forecasts Monthly archive ENSO Update14 June 2005SummarySea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, although slightly above average, currently indicate ENSO-neutral conditions. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is 70% likely that neutral conditions will prevail over the Jun-Jul-Aug 2005 season.General DiscussionDuring May 2005, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were within the range of near-normal conditions although somewhat above-average over parts of the near-equatorial Pacific. During May, the trade winds near the equator remained close to their average strength for this time of year. The above average SSTs that had developed in the eastern equatorial Pacific near the end of April decayed to near-average temperatures during May. In the first half of June 2005, below-average SSTs developed in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but these are not expected to persist. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, approximately 30% predict sea surface temperatures at weak El Niño levels for the June to August period in the central Pacific. Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for returning to El Niño conditions are approximately 30% through early 2006. The likelihood of maintaining neutral conditions is approximately 65% through through the end of 2005. The probability of a La Niña developing between now and early 2006 is approximately 5%.Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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