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ENSO
Quick Look
IRI ENSO Update / Forecast Technical ENSO Update Summary of Model Forecasts Monthly archive ENSO Update17 February 2005SummarySea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific remain indicative of weak El Niño conditions, although some of the expected associated atmospheric conditions have not materialized. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is 65% likely that weak El Niño conditions will prevail through at least April 2005.General DiscussionSea surface temperatures indicative of weak El Niño conditions developed in the east-central tropical Pacific in late July 2004 and are currently about 0.5 degree C above average along the equator from 160E to 160W, increasing to over 1 degree C near the dateline. The tropical atmosphere continues to show only weak characteristics of an El Niño event, and the sea surface temperatures in the far eastern Pacific are now below average. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, approximately 65% predict sea surface temperatures at weak El Niño levels for the February to April period in the central Pacific. Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for maintaining El Niño conditions are approximately 65% through April 2005, decreasing thereafter. The likelihood of returning to neutral conditions is approximately 35% through April 2005, returning to the climatological likelihood (i.e. 50% probability) by July 2005. The probability of a La Niña developing between now and April 2005 is near zero, rising slightly thereafter but to a much lower level than the climatological likelihood of 25%, even in the second half of 2005.Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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