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ENSO Quick Look ENSO Update20 January 2005SummarySea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are currently indicative of weak El Niño conditions, although some of the expected associated atmospheric conditions have not yet materialized. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is 85% likely that weak El Niño conditions will prevail through at least March 2005.General DiscussionSea surface temperatures indicative of weak El Niño conditions developed in the east-central tropical Pacific in late July and are currently about 1 degree C above average along the equator from 160E to 160W. The tropical atmosphere continues to show only weak characteristics of an El Niño event, and sea surface temperatures in the far eastern Pacific are near to slightly above average. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, more than 90% predict sea surface temperatures at weak El Niño levels for the February to April period in the east-central Pacific. However, uncertainty continues about whether the far eastern portion of the basin near the west coast of South America will warm appreciably during this episode. Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for maintaining El Niño conditions are approximately 85% through March 2005, decreasing thereafter. The likelihood of returning to neutral conditions is approximately 15% through March 2005, returning to the climatological likelihood (i.e. 50% probability) by June 2005. The probability of a La Niña developing between now and April 2005 is near zero, rising slightly thereafter but to a lower level than the climatological likelihood of 25%, even in the second half of 2005.
Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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