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ENSO Quick Look ENSO Update16 December 2004SummarySea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are currently indicative of weak El Niño conditions. Based on the latest observations and forecasts, it is at least 75% likely that weak El Niño conditions will prevail through at least March 2005.General DiscussionSea surface temperatures indicative of weak El Niño conditions developed in the east-central tropical Pacific in late July and are currently about 1 degree C above average along the equator from 160E to 155W. The tropical atmosphere continues to show only weak characteristics of an El Niño event, and sea surface temperatures in the far eastern Pacific are near to slightly above average. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast models, about 80% predict sea surface temperatures at weak El Niño levels for the coming three months in the east-central Pacific. There is greater uncertainty regarding continued warming of the far eastern portion of the basin near the west coast of equatorial South America. Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the ocean surface and subsurface, the chances for maintaining El Niño conditions are approximately 80% from December through March 2005, decreasing thereafter. The likelihood of returning to neutral conditions is approximately 20% through March 2005, returning to the climatological likelihood (i.e. 50% probability) from May 2005 onward. The probability of a La Niña developing between now and April 2005 is near zero.
Note 1 - Only models that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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