Current ENSO Information
ENSO Update
15 July 2004
Summary
Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific remain near-neutral. Based
on
the latest observations and forecasts, it is likely that near-neutral
but
slightly warmer than average conditions will prevail through the rest
of
2004 and into early 2005.
General Discussion
Near neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific
continue, with sea surface temperatures below average in
the far eastern tropical Pacific, and somewhat above average in the
east-central Pacific and to the
west of the date line. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical
forecast models, the majority predict near-neutral sea surface
temperatures
to continue, but with slightly above average levels likely.
(Note
1). Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of
the ocean surface and subsurface, the chance for neutral is equal to or
greater
than that
of an average year (equal to or greater than 50%) throughout 2004 and
into early 2005. The likelihood
of
the development of El Niño is greater than the climatological
likelihood (i.e. greater than 25% probability) from August
through the
remainder of 2004 and into early 2005, but still below 50%. The
probability of development
of La Niña conditions is believed to be less than that
of an average year (i.e. less than 25%).
Note 1 - Only models
that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above
statement.
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