Current ENSO Information
ENSO Update
17 June 2004
Summary
Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific remain near-neutral. Based
on
the latest observations and forecasts, it is likely that near-neutral
but
slightly warmer than average conditions will prevail through the rest
of
2004.
General Discussion
Near neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific
continue, with sea surface temperatures below average in
the far eastern tropical Pacific, and somewhat above average in the
east-central Pacific and to the
west of the date line. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical
forecast models, the majority predict near-neutral sea surface
temperatures
to continue, but with slightly above average levels likely.
(Note
1). Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of
the ocean surface and subsurface, the chance for neutral is greater
than that
of an average year (greater than 50%) throughout 2004. The likelihood
of
the development of El Niño is greater than the climatological
likelihood (i.e. 25% probability) from August
through the
remainder of 2004, but still below 50%.The probability of development
of La Niña conditions is believed to be less than that
of an average year (i.e. less than 25%).
Note 1 - Only models
that produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above
statement.
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