Current ENSO Information
ENSO Update
20 May 2004
Summary
Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific remain near-neutral. Based on
the latest observations and forecasts, it is likely that near-neutral but
slightly warmer than average conditions will prevail through the rest of
2004.
General Discussion
Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific continue to be
near neutral, although sea surface temperatures are now below average in
the far eastern tropical Pacific, and remain somewhat above average to the
west of the date line. Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast
models, the majority predict near-neutral sea surface temperatures
to continue, but with warming to slightly above average levels possible.
(Note
1). Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of the
ocean surface and subsurface, the chance for neutral is greater than that
of an average year (greater than 50%) throughout 2004. The likelihood of
the development of El Niño is slightly greater than average from July
2004 through the remainder of 2004, but still below 50%.The probability of
development of La Niña conditions is believed to be less than that
of an average year (i.e. less than 25%).
Note 1 - Only models that
produce a new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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