Current ENSO Information
ENSO Update
15 April 2004
Summary
Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific remain near-neutral. Based
on the
latest observations and forecasts, it is likely
that near-neutral but slightly warmer than average conditions will
prevail through the first half of
2004.
General Discussion
Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific continue to
be near neutral, although sea surface temperatures remain somewhat
above average to the west of the date line.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast
models, the
majority predict near-neutral sea
surface temperatures to continue, but with warming to slightly
above average levels possible. (Note
1). Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of
the
ocean surface and subsurface, the chance for neutral conditions remains
equal to or greater than that of an average year (equal to or greater
than 50%) throughout 2004, with highest probabilities for neutral
conditions during the coming three months. The likelihood of the
development of El Niño is slightly greater than
average from June 2004
through the remainder of 2004, but still below 50%.The probability of
development of La
Niña conditions is believed to be less than
that of an average
year (i.e. less than 25%).
Note 1 - Only models
that
produce a
new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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