Current ENSO Information
ENSO Update
18 March 2004
Summary
Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific remain near-neutral. Based
on the
latest observations and forecasts, it is most
likely
that near-neutral conditions will continue through the first half of
2004.
General Discussion
Overall conditions in the tropical Pacific continue to
be near neutral, although sea surface temperatures remain somewhat
above average from the date line westward.
Out of a large set of dynamical and statistical forecast
models, the
majority predict near-average to slightly warmer than average sea
surface temperatures to continue (Note
1). Overall, based on model forecasts and current observations of
the
ocean surface and subsurface, the chance for neutral conditions remains
equal to or greater than that of an average year (equal to or greater
than 50%) throughout 2004, with highest probabilities for neutral
conditions during the first half of the year. The likelihood of the
development of El Niño is near to or slightly greater than
average from June 2004
through the remainder of 2004, but still below 50%.The probability of
development of La
Niña conditions is believed to be less than
that of an average
year (i.e. less than 25%).
In summary, current observations and model forecasts
suggest
that ocean
conditions will most likely remain near neutral through at least the
first half
of 2004.
Note 1 - Only models
that
produce a
new ENSO forecast every month are included in the above statement.
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